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Updated: 2015 OCT 04, 22:52 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Mar 09 UT, the 133 km diameter asteroid (588) Achilles will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a fairly broad path across Australia, from Bairsndale across eastern Victoria, central New South Wales, south-western Queensland and into The Northern Territory at decreasing elevation. Hobart, Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney are all within, or very close to, the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.5 mag to 16.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 14.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
133 27 12 -17 30 9 14 21 53 7 122 -65 136 31 43 -18 52 54 ... .. .. .. .. .. 140 51 31 -20 28 12 ... .. .. .. .. ..
136 6 34 -19 55 22 14 22 3 10 121 -64 138 30 12 -20 50 50 133 3 49 -18 33 51 142 18 28 -22 4 27 ... .. .. .. .. ..
137 59 44 -21 50 21 14 22 14 13 120 -63 140 4 34 -22 32 57 135 34 57 -20 54 16 143 33 44 -23 33 1 126 49 3 -16 23 44
139 30 35 -23 30 42 14 22 25 15 119 -61 141 24 16 -24 5 26 137 23 57 -22 47 6 144 40 31 -24 55 59 132 3 20 -20 32 0
140 47 34 -25 1 57 14 22 36 17 119 -60 142 33 48 -25 31 14 138 51 51 -24 26 6 145 40 46 -26 14 40 134 22 25 -22 45 48
141 54 49 -26 26 51 14 22 47 18 118 -59 143 35 46 -26 52 6 140 6 27 -25 56 24 146 35 47 -27 29 55 136 4 32 -24 35 22
142 54 44 -27 47 0 14 22 58 20 117 -58 144 31 45 -28 9 6 141 11 38 -27 20 35 147 26 29 -28 42 22 137 27 15 -26 12 16
143 48 53 -29 3 26 14 23 9 21 116 -57 145 22 55 -29 22 59 142 9 40 -28 40 10 148 13 31 -29 52 28 138 37 28 -27 41 1
144 38 17 -30 16 50 14 23 19 22 116 -56 146 10 1 -30 34 18 143 2 3 -29 56 7 148 57 25 -31 0 34 139 38 43 -29 4 0
145 23 43 -31 27 45 14 23 30 23 115 -54 146 53 39 -31 43 27 143 49 45 -31 9 8 149 38 33 -32 6 57 140 33 5 -30 22 36
146 5 43 -32 36 33 14 23 41 24 114 -53 147 34 16 -32 50 44 144 33 32 -32 19 43 150 17 16 -33 11 50 141 21 56 -31 37 45
146 44 44 -33 43 33 14 23 52 25 113 -52 148 12 13 -33 56 25 145 13 54 -33 28 14 150 53 47 -34 15 23 142 6 13 -32 50 5
147 21 6 -34 48 59 14 24 3 26 113 -51 148 47 48 -35 0 42 145 51 18 -34 34 59 151 28 19 -35 17 47 142 46 37 -34 0 5
147 55 4 -35 53 3 14 24 14 27 112 -50 149 21 12 -36 3 45 146 26 2 -35 40 13 152 1 3 -36 19 8 143 23 37 -35 8 5
148 26 52 -36 55 55 14 24 25 28 111 -49 149 52 38 -37 5 42 146 58 21 -36 44 6 152 32 6 -37 19 34 143 57 36 -36 14 23
148 56 40 -37 57 42 14 24 36 29 110 -48 150 22 14 -38 6 40 147 28 29 -37 46 48 153 1 36 -38 19 9 144 28 53 -37 19 13
149 24 36 -38 58 33 14 24 46 30 110 -47 150 50 8 -39 6 46 147 56 34 -38 48 27 153 29 40 -39 18 0 144 57 42 -38 22 44
149 50 48 -39 58 32 14 24 57 30 109 -46 151 16 26 -40 6 6 148 22 46 -39 49 10 153 56 21 -40 16 10 145 24 15 -39 25 7
150 15 22 -40 57 45 14 25 8 31 108 -45 151 41 13 -41 4 43 148 47 10 -40 49 3 154 21 44 -41 13 44 145 48 39 -40 26 29
150 38 21 -41 56 17 14 25 19 31 107 -44 152 4 33 -42 2 41 149 9 52 -41 48 10 154 45 53 -42 10 44 146 11 2 -41 26 56
150 59 50 -42 54 11 14 25 30 32 106 -43 152 26 30 -43 0 5 149 30 56 -42 46 37 155 8 50 -43 7 15 146 31 30 -42 26 34
151 19 51 -43 51 32 14 25 41 33 106 -42 152 47 6 -43 56 59 149 50 25 -43 44 27 155 30 38 -44 3 19 146 50 8 -43 25 28
151 38 27 -44 48 22 14 25 52 33 105 -41 153 6 23 -44 53 23 150 8 22 -44 41 44 155 51 18 -44 58 58 147 6 57 -44 23 43
151 55 39 -45 44 45 14 26 2 34 104 -40 153 24 23 -45 49 23 150 24 49 -45 38 30 156 10 53 -45 54 15 147 22 1 -45 21 21
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2016 Feb 16.0
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