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Updated: 2016 FEB 16, 13:50 UT
Event Rank : 29
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Mar 04 UT, the 85 km diameter asteroid (2363) Cebriones will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Canis Major for observers along a path of significant uncertainty across Australia from Lorne across western Victoria to Robinvale, and across western New South Wales and Queensland to Cloncurry.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.6 mag to 16.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
144 44 40 -44 31 54 9 37 1 57 30 -7 144 10 59 -44 37 48 145 18 10 -44 25 55 141 34 5 -45 4 2 147 49 14 -43 57 47
144 32 43 -43 0 57 9 37 12 58 31 -7 143 59 54 -43 6 46 145 5 21 -42 55 5 141 27 11 -43 32 33 147 32 36 -42 27 27
144 20 11 -41 31 15 9 37 23 59 33 -8 143 48 10 -41 36 58 144 52 2 -41 25 29 141 19 16 -42 2 20 147 15 50 -40 58 19
144 7 7 -40 2 41 9 37 33 60 34 -8 143 35 50 -40 8 18 144 38 15 -39 57 0 141 10 24 -40 33 18 146 58 54 -39 30 17
143 53 35 -38 35 9 9 37 44 62 36 -8 143 22 57 -38 40 41 144 24 3 -38 29 33 141 0 42 -39 5 19 146 41 48 -38 3 14
143 39 35 -37 8 33 9 37 55 63 38 -8 143 9 34 -37 14 0 144 9 27 -37 3 2 140 50 13 -37 38 17 146 24 32 -36 37 6
143 25 9 -35 42 48 9 38 6 64 40 -8 142 55 42 -35 48 11 143 54 28 -35 37 22 140 39 1 -36 12 9 146 7 6 -35 11 48
143 10 18 -34 17 50 9 38 17 65 43 -9 142 41 22 -34 23 9 143 39 7 -34 12 28 140 27 8 -34 46 49 145 49 29 -33 47 15
142 55 4 -32 53 35 9 38 27 65 45 -9 142 26 36 -32 58 50 143 23 24 -32 48 17 140 14 37 -33 22 12 145 31 41 -32 23 22
142 39 25 -31 29 57 9 38 38 66 48 -9 142 11 24 -31 35 8 143 7 20 -31 24 43 140 1 30 -31 58 14 145 13 42 -31 0 7
142 23 24 -30 6 54 9 38 49 67 50 -9 141 55 47 -30 12 1 142 50 54 -30 1 43 139 47 48 -30 34 51 144 55 29 -29 37 24
142 6 59 -28 44 21 9 39 0 68 54 -9 141 39 45 -28 49 25 142 34 7 -28 39 14 139 33 32 -29 12 1 144 37 4 -28 15 11
141 50 12 -27 22 16 9 39 11 68 57 -9 141 23 18 -27 27 17 142 16 59 -27 17 12 139 18 43 -27 49 38 144 18 25 -26 53 24
141 33 1 -26 0 34 9 39 21 69 60 -9 141 6 26 -26 5 32 141 59 30 -25 55 33 139 3 22 -26 27 40 143 59 31 -25 32 0
141 15 27 -24 39 13 9 39 32 69 64 -9 140 49 10 -24 44 9 141 41 38 -24 34 15 138 47 28 -25 6 4 143 40 21 -24 10 55
140 57 28 -23 18 10 9 39 43 70 67 -9 140 31 27 -23 23 3 141 23 23 -23 13 15 138 31 3 -23 44 46 143 20 55 -22 50 8
140 39 5 -21 57 22 9 39 54 70 71 -9 140 13 19 -22 2 12 141 4 45 -21 52 29 138 14 5 -22 23 43 143 1 12 -21 29 34
140 20 17 -20 36 45 9 40 4 70 75 -9 139 54 45 -20 41 33 140 45 44 -20 31 55 137 56 35 -21 2 53 142 41 9 -20 9 12
140 1 2 -19 16 18 9 40 15 70 79 -9 139 35 43 -19 21 3 140 26 17 -19 11 30 137 38 32 -19 42 13 142 20 47 -18 48 57
139 41 21 -17 55 57 9 40 26 70 83 -9 139 16 13 -18 0 39 140 6 24 -17 51 11 137 19 55 -18 21 39 142 0 4 -17 28 49
139 21 11 -16 35 39 9 40 37 70 86 -9 138 56 13 -16 40 20 139 46 4 -16 30 55 137 0 44 -17 1 10 141 38 59 -16 8 43
139 0 32 -15 15 22 9 40 48 70 90 -9 138 35 43 -15 20 1 139 25 16 -15 10 40 136 40 57 -15 40 41 141 17 30 -14 48 37
138 39 22 -13 55 3 9 40 58 69 94 -9 138 14 41 -13 59 40 139 3 58 -13 50 23 136 20 34 -14 20 12 140 55 35 -13 28 29
138 17 40 -12 34 39 9 41 9 69 97 -9 137 53 6 -12 39 14 138 42 8 -12 30 2 135 59 33 -12 59 38 140 33 13 -12 8 15
137 55 23 -11 14 8 9 41 20 68 101 -9 137 30 56 -11 18 41 138 19 45 -11 9 32 135 37 52 -11 38 56 140 10 23 -10 47 54
137 32 30 - 9 53 27 9 41 31 68 104 -9 137 8 9 - 9 57 58 137 56 47 - 9 48 52 135 15 29 -10 18 5 139 47 1 - 9 27 22
137 9 0 - 8 32 32 9 41 42 67 107 -9 136 44 42 - 8 37 2 137 33 12 - 8 27 59 134 52 23 - 8 57 1 139 23 6 - 8 6 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs
Prediction of 2016 Feb 16.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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