|
|
Updated: 2016 FEB 02, 15:17 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Mar 01 UT, the 42 km diameter asteroid (888) Parysatis will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a narrow path across south-eastern Australia from a little south of Adelaide across south-eastern South Australia, north-western Victoria (just west of Mildura) and across New South Wales to Grafton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 13.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
134 22 42 -39 0 0 11 56 4 26 329 -25 135 10 59 133 35 32 135 57 28 132 52 8
135 48 0 -38 0 0 11 56 15 26 327 -26 136 37 46 134 59 29 137 25 47 134 14 56
137 18 59 -37 0 0 11 56 28 27 325 -28 138 10 37 136 28 47 139 0 34 135 42 47
138 56 37 -36 0 0 11 56 41 27 324 -30 139 50 37 138 4 17 140 43 5 137 16 28
140 42 14 -35 0 0 11 56 55 27 322 -31 141 39 19 139 47 10 142 35 3 138 57 3
142 37 43 -34 0 0 11 57 10 26 320 -33 143 38 54 141 39 3 144 39 3 140 45 56
144 45 51 -33 0 0 11 57 26 26 317 -35 145 52 46 143 42 18 146 59 16 142 45 11
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
145 0 0 -32 53 47 11 57 28 26 317 -36 -33 22 46 -32 25 21 -33 50 31 -31 59 5
146 0 0 -32 28 21 11 57 35 25 316 -37 -32 56 58 -32 0 15 -33 24 22 -31 34 17
147 0 0 -32 4 20 11 57 43 25 315 -37 -32 32 38 -31 36 33 -32 59 42 -31 10 52
148 0 0 -31 41 45 11 57 50 25 314 -38 -32 9 44 -31 14 15 -32 36 30 -30 48 49
149 0 0 -31 20 32 11 57 56 24 313 -39 -31 48 15 -30 53 18 -32 14 44 -30 28 7
150 0 0 -31 0 43 11 58 3 24 312 -40 -31 28 9 -30 33 43 -31 54 24 -30 8 45
151 0 0 -30 42 14 11 58 10 23 311 -41 -31 9 27 -30 15 29 -31 35 27 -29 50 43
152 0 0 -30 25 6 11 58 16 23 311 -42 -30 52 6 -29 58 33 -31 17 53 -29 33 58
153 0 0 -30 9 18 11 58 23 23 310 -43 -30 36 5 -29 42 56 -31 1 41 -29 18 32
154 0 0 -29 54 48 11 58 29 22 309 -43 -30 21 25 -29 28 37 -30 46 49 -29 4 22
155 0 0 -29 41 37 11 58 35 21 308 -44 -30 8 3 -29 15 35 -30 33 18 -28 51 28
156 0 0 -29 29 42 11 58 40 21 307 -45 -29 56 0 -29 3 49 -30 21 6 -28 39 50
157 0 0 -29 19 5 11 58 46 20 307 -46 -29 45 14 -28 53 19 -30 10 12 -28 29 27
158 0 0 -29 9 43 11 58 51 20 306 -46 -29 35 45 -28 44 4 -30 0 37 -28 20 18
159 0 0 -29 1 37 11 58 57 19 305 -47 -29 27 33 -28 36 4 -29 52 18 -28 12 23
160 0 0 -28 54 45 11 59 2 18 304 -47 -29 20 36 -28 29 18 -29 45 16 -28 5 42
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Feb 2.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]