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Updated: 2016 JAN 06, 16:50 UT
Event Rank : 50
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Feb 09 UT, the 44 km diameter asteroid (2326) Tololo will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path beginning near Port Lincoln in SA and moving north passing near Alice Springs and between Wyndam and Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.4 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
133 44 0 -48 0 0 14 46 24 23 56 -27 134 16 17 133 11 20 135 37 57 131 45 12
134 13 5 -47 0 0 14 46 32 24 56 -28 134 44 26 133 41 24 136 3 46 132 17 55
134 38 29 -46 0 0 14 46 41 24 55 -29 135 8 58 134 7 40 136 26 12 132 46 35
135 0 29 -45 0 0 14 46 51 25 55 -30 135 30 12 134 30 28 136 45 32 133 11 32
135 19 21 -44 0 0 14 47 0 26 56 -31 135 48 22 134 50 4 137 1 58 133 33 5
135 35 20 -43 0 0 14 47 9 27 56 -32 136 3 42 135 6 41 137 15 42 133 51 29
135 48 35 -42 0 0 14 47 19 28 56 -33 136 16 23 135 20 33 137 26 56 134 6 57
135 59 19 -41 0 0 14 47 29 28 56 -34 136 26 34 135 31 50 137 35 48 134 19 42
136 7 40 -40 0 0 14 47 39 29 56 -35 136 34 26 135 40 40 137 42 26 134 29 53
136 13 45 -39 0 0 14 47 50 30 57 -36 136 40 4 135 47 13 137 46 58 134 37 39
136 17 43 -38 0 0 14 48 0 30 57 -37 136 43 37 135 51 36 137 49 30 134 43 9
136 19 38 -37 0 0 14 48 11 31 58 -38 136 45 10 135 53 54 137 50 7 134 46 28
136 19 37 -36 0 0 14 48 21 31 58 -39 136 44 49 135 54 14 137 48 54 134 47 44
136 17 45 -35 0 0 14 48 32 32 59 -40 136 42 37 135 52 40 137 45 56 134 47 1
136 14 5 -34 0 0 14 48 44 32 59 -41 136 38 40 135 49 17 137 41 16 134 44 23
136 8 40 -33 0 0 14 48 55 33 60 -42 136 33 1 135 44 9 137 34 58 134 39 56
136 1 36 -32 0 0 14 49 6 33 60 -43 136 25 42 135 37 18 137 27 5 134 33 43
135 52 53 -31 0 0 14 49 18 34 61 -44 136 16 47 135 28 48 137 17 39 134 25 45
135 42 35 -30 0 0 14 49 30 34 62 -45 136 6 18 135 18 41 137 6 42 134 16 7
135 30 43 -29 0 0 14 49 42 34 62 -46 135 54 17 135 6 58 136 54 16 134 4 50
135 17 19 -28 0 0 14 49 54 35 63 -47 135 40 44 134 53 43 136 40 23 133 51 56
135 2 24 -27 0 0 14 50 6 35 64 -48 135 25 42 134 38 55 136 25 3 133 37 26
134 45 59 -26 0 0 14 50 18 35 65 -49 135 9 12 134 22 35 136 8 18 133 21 22
134 28 5 -25 0 0 14 50 31 36 65 -50 134 51 13 134 4 45 135 50 8 133 3 43
134 8 41 -24 0 0 14 50 43 36 66 -51 134 31 47 133 45 25 135 30 33 132 44 30
133 47 48 -23 0 0 14 50 56 36 67 -52 134 10 52 133 24 34 135 9 33 132 23 44
133 25 26 -22 0 0 14 51 9 36 68 -53 133 48 29 133 2 12 134 47 8 132 1 22
133 1 33 -21 0 0 14 51 21 36 69 -54 133 24 37 132 38 19 134 23 17 131 37 26
132 36 9 -20 0 0 14 51 35 36 70 -54 132 59 15 132 12 52 133 58 0 131 11 53
132 9 13 -19 0 0 14 51 48 36 71 -55 132 32 22 131 45 52 133 31 14 130 44 42
131 40 41 -18 0 0 14 52 1 36 72 -56 132 3 55 131 17 15 133 2 59 130 15 51
131 10 33 -17 0 0 14 52 14 36 73 -57 131 33 53 130 47 0 132 33 12 129 45 18
130 38 45 -16 0 0 14 52 28 36 73 -58 131 2 13 130 15 5 132 1 51 129 12 59
130 5 15 -15 0 0 14 52 41 36 74 -59 130 28 52 129 41 24 131 28 53 128 38 51
129 29 58 -14 0 0 14 52 55 35 75 -59 129 53 47 129 5 56 130 54 15 128 2 50
128 52 52 -13 0 0 14 53 9 35 76 -60 129 16 54 128 28 35 130 17 54 127 24 50
128 13 50 -12 0 0 14 53 23 35 77 -61 128 38 7 127 49 17 129 39 44 126 44 48
127 32 47 -11 0 0 14 53 37 34 78 -61 127 57 22 127 7 56 128 59 42 126 2 35
126 49 36 -10 0 0 14 53 51 34 79 -62 127 14 32 126 24 24 128 17 40 125 18 4
126 4 10 - 9 0 0 14 54 5 33 80 -63 126 29 29 125 38 34 127 33 34 124 31 7
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jan 7.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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