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Updated: 2015 Dec 03, 11:28 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jan 31 UT, the 67 km diameter asteroid (172) Baucis will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across central Queensland and South Australia, passing over Townsville.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 12.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 43599988 by 172 Baucis on 2016 Jan 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
130 54 37 -37 0 0 11 12 40 15 23 -9 130 20 51 131 28 29 130 0 38 131 48 51
131 45 14 -36 0 0 11 12 35 16 22 -10 131 11 45 132 18 50 130 51 42 132 39 2
132 35 59 -35 0 0 11 12 29 17 22 -11 132 2 44 133 9 19 131 42 51 133 29 23
133 26 53 -34 0 0 11 12 24 19 21 -12 132 53 52 134 0 0 132 34 7 134 19 55
134 18 0 -33 0 0 11 12 17 20 21 -13 133 45 12 134 50 55 133 25 34 135 10 43
135 9 22 -32 0 0 11 12 11 21 20 -14 134 36 45 135 42 7 134 17 13 136 1 49
136 1 3 -31 0 0 11 12 3 22 20 -15 135 28 35 136 33 38 135 9 9 136 53 14
136 53 5 -30 0 0 11 11 56 23 19 -16 136 20 45 137 25 32 136 1 24 137 45 3
137 45 30 -29 0 0 11 11 48 24 18 -18 137 13 17 138 17 50 136 54 0 138 37 18
138 38 22 -28 0 0 11 11 40 26 18 -19 138 6 14 139 10 37 137 47 1 139 30 2
139 31 43 -27 0 0 11 11 31 27 17 -20 138 59 40 140 3 54 138 40 29 140 23 17
140 25 36 -26 0 0 11 11 22 28 17 -21 139 53 36 140 57 45 139 34 27 141 17 6
141 20 5 -25 0 0 11 11 12 29 16 -22 140 48 6 141 52 13 140 28 59 142 11 33
142 15 13 -24 0 0 11 11 2 30 15 -24 141 43 14 142 47 20 141 24 6 143 6 41
143 11 1 -23 0 0 11 10 52 31 15 -25 142 39 1 143 43 11 142 19 53 144 2 33
144 7 35 -22 0 0 11 10 41 33 14 -26 143 35 32 144 39 47 143 16 23 144 59 11
145 4 57 -21 0 0 11 10 29 34 13 -27 144 32 50 145 37 14 144 13 39 145 56 41
146 3 12 -20 0 0 11 10 18 35 12 -29 145 30 59 146 35 34 145 11 44 146 55 5
147 2 22 -19 0 0 11 10 5 36 12 -30 146 30 2 147 34 52 146 10 43 147 54 28
148 2 32 -18 0 0 11 9 52 37 11 -31 147 30 4 148 35 12 147 10 40 148 54 54
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2015 Dec 3.0
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