|
|
Updated: 2015 Dec 03, 10:48 UT
Event Rank : 77
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jan 17 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (1237) Genevieve will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across South Australia, north-western New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, running from Port Lincoln to Maroochydore.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.6 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0022-00149-2 by 1237 Genevieve on 2016 Jan 17
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
132 0 27 -37 0 0 11 31 43 32 303 -11 132 40 9 131 21 20 133 38 20 130 25 55
133 30 4 -36 0 0 11 31 50 31 301 -12 134 10 35 132 50 9 135 10 6 131 53 42
135 3 45 -35 0 0 11 31 58 31 300 -14 135 45 18 134 22 53 136 46 25 133 25 9
136 42 5 -34 0 0 11 32 5 30 298 -16 137 24 53 136 0 2 138 27 59 135 0 46
138 25 48 -33 0 0 11 32 12 29 296 -18 139 10 9 137 42 19 140 15 42 136 41 9
140 15 50 -32 0 0 11 32 20 28 294 -19 141 2 7 139 30 35 142 10 43 138 27 4
142 13 26 -31 0 0 11 32 28 27 292 -21 143 2 9 141 25 57 144 14 41 140 19 32
144 20 19 -30 0 0 11 32 35 26 290 -23 145 12 11 143 29 58 146 29 51 142 19 52
145 0 0 -29 42 14 11 32 38 25 290 -24 -30 5 24 -29 19 20 -30 39 15 -28 46 48
146 0 0 -29 16 16 11 32 41 24 289 -25 -29 39 14 -28 53 34 -30 12 46 -28 21 19
147 0 0 -28 51 23 11 32 45 24 288 -26 -29 14 9 -28 28 53 -29 47 23 -27 56 54
148 0 0 -28 27 34 11 32 48 23 287 -27 -28 50 8 -28 5 14 -29 23 6 -27 33 31
149 0 0 -28 4 49 11 32 51 22 287 -28 -28 27 12 -27 42 40 -28 59 54 -27 11 10
150 0 0 -27 43 7 11 32 54 21 286 -28 -28 5 21 -27 21 8 -28 37 47 -26 49 52
151 0 0 -27 22 29 11 32 57 21 285 -29 -27 44 33 -27 0 38 -28 16 45 -26 29 35
152 0 0 -27 2 53 11 33 0 20 285 -30 -27 24 48 -26 41 11 -27 56 47 -26 10 20
153 0 0 -26 44 20 11 33 3 19 284 -31 -27 6 6 -26 22 46 -27 37 53 -25 52 6
154 0 0 -26 26 49 11 33 5 18 283 -32 -26 48 28 -26 5 23 -27 20 2 -25 34 53
155 0 0 -26 10 19 11 33 8 17 283 -33 -26 31 51 -25 49 1 -27 3 14 -25 18 41
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2015 Dec 3.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]