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Updated: 2015 Dec 03, 10:15 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jan 08 UT, the 87 km diameter asteroid (83) Beatrix will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Australia, beginning near Merimbula, then running across southern New South Wales into central South Australia and south-central West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.5 mag to 11.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds. This event may prove difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 42741139 by 83 Beatrix on 2016 Jan 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
164 14 3 -47 0 0 15 24 2 4 326 -15 165 39 35 162 46 44 166 13 21 162 11 17
162 58 51 -46 0 0 15 24 4 6 327 -16 164 24 24 161 31 28 164 58 8 160 55 57
161 41 38 -45 0 0 15 24 7 7 328 -17 163 7 21 160 13 59 163 41 7 159 38 21
160 22 12 -44 0 0 15 24 10 8 329 -18 161 48 15 158 54 7 162 22 8 158 18 16
159 0 21 -43 0 0 15 24 14 10 330 -20 160 26 56 157 31 37 161 1 0 156 55 28
157 35 52 -42 0 0 15 24 19 11 331 -21 159 3 10 156 6 15 159 37 29 155 29 43
156 8 27 -41 0 0 15 24 24 12 332 -23 157 36 42 154 37 43 158 11 22 154 0 40
154 37 48 -40 0 0 15 24 31 14 333 -24 156 7 16 153 5 39 156 42 22 152 27 58
153 3 32 -39 0 0 15 24 38 15 334 -25 154 34 31 151 29 37 155 10 9 150 51 9
151 25 12 -38 0 0 15 24 46 17 336 -27 152 58 2 149 49 8 153 34 21 149 9 42
149 42 15 -37 0 0 15 24 55 18 337 -28 151 17 22 148 3 32 151 54 30 147 22 55
147 54 1 -36 0 0 15 25 6 19 338 -30 149 31 56 146 12 2 150 10 4 145 29 57
145 59 38 -35 0 0 15 25 18 21 340 -31 147 40 58 144 13 35 148 20 20 143 29 40
143 57 59 -34 0 0 15 25 31 22 341 -32 145 43 35 142 6 50 146 24 28 141 20 35
142 0 0 -33 5 32 15 25 44 24 343 -34 -32 15 32 -33 56 53 -31 55 53 -34 17 51
141 0 0 -32 39 13 15 25 51 24 344 -34 -31 49 40 -33 30 6 -31 30 11 -33 50 51
140 0 0 -32 13 51 15 25 59 25 345 -35 -31 24 43 -33 4 16 -31 5 24 -33 24 50
139 0 0 -31 49 24 15 26 6 26 345 -35 -31 0 40 -32 39 24 -30 41 31 -32 59 46
138 0 0 -31 25 53 15 26 14 26 346 -36 -30 37 32 -32 15 28 -30 18 31 -32 35 39
137 0 0 -31 3 17 15 26 21 27 347 -36 -30 15 18 -31 52 28 -29 56 25 -32 12 30
136 0 0 -30 41 36 15 26 29 27 348 -37 -29 53 58 -31 30 25 -29 35 13 -31 50 18
135 0 0 -30 20 50 15 26 37 28 349 -37 -29 33 31 -31 9 18 -29 14 53 -31 29 1
134 0 0 -30 0 58 15 26 45 28 350 -38 -29 13 57 -30 49 6 -28 55 27 -31 8 41
133 0 0 -29 42 0 15 26 53 29 351 -38 -28 55 17 -30 29 50 -28 36 53 -30 49 17
132 0 0 -29 23 57 15 27 1 29 352 -38 -28 37 30 -30 11 28 -28 19 13 -30 30 48
131 0 0 -29 6 47 15 27 9 30 353 -39 -28 20 36 -29 54 2 -28 2 24 -30 13 15
130 0 0 -28 50 31 15 27 17 30 353 -39 -28 4 34 -29 37 30 -27 46 28 -29 56 36
129 0 0 -28 35 8 15 27 26 30 354 -39 -27 49 25 -29 21 52 -27 31 24 -29 40 53
128 0 0 -28 20 38 15 27 34 31 355 -40 -27 35 8 -29 7 9 -27 17 12 -29 26 4
127 0 0 -28 7 1 15 27 43 31 356 -40 -27 21 43 -28 53 20 -27 3 52 -29 12 9
126 0 0 -27 54 17 15 27 51 31 357 -40 -27 9 10 -28 40 24 -26 51 23 -28 59 8
125 0 0 -27 42 26 15 28 0 31 358 -40 -26 57 29 -28 28 22 -26 39 46 -28 47 2
124 0 0 -27 31 28 15 28 8 32 359 -40 -26 46 40 -28 17 13 -26 29 0 -28 35 49
123 0 0 -27 21 21 15 28 17 32 0 -40 -26 36 42 -28 6 58 -26 19 6 -28 25 29
122 0 0 -27 12 7 15 28 25 32 1 -40 -26 27 36 -27 57 35 -26 10 2 -28 16 3
121 0 0 -27 3 45 15 28 34 32 2 -40 -26 19 21 -27 49 6 -26 1 50 -28 7 31
120 0 0 -26 56 15 15 28 43 32 3 -40 -26 11 57 -27 41 29 -25 54 29 -27 59 51
119 0 0 -26 49 37 15 28 51 32 4 -40 -26 5 25 -27 34 45 -25 47 58 -27 53 5
118 0 0 -26 43 51 15 29 0 32 5 -40 -25 59 43 -27 28 54 -25 42 19 -27 47 12
117 0 0 -26 38 57 15 29 9 32 6 -40 -25 54 53 -27 23 56 -25 37 30 -27 42 12
116 0 0 -26 34 54 15 29 17 32 7 -40 -25 50 54 -27 19 50 -25 33 32 -27 38 4
115 0 0 -26 31 43 15 29 26 32 8 -39 -25 47 45 -27 16 36 -25 30 25 -27 34 50
114 0 0 -26 29 24 15 29 35 32 9 -39 -25 45 28 -27 14 15 -25 28 8 -27 32 28
113 0 0 -26 27 57 15 29 43 32 10 -39 -25 44 1 -27 12 47 -25 26 42 -27 30 59
112 0 0 -26 27 21 15 29 52 32 11 -39 -25 43 26 -27 12 11 -25 26 6 -27 30 23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2015 Dec 3.0
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