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Updated: 2015 Dec 03, 09:51 UT
Event Rank : 58
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jan 01 UT, the 23 km diameter asteroid (817) Annika will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing near Christchurch and across Australia, beginning near Forster, running across northern New South Wales, northern South Australia and central West Australia, leaving near Kalbarri.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1360-00340-1 by 817 Annika on 2016 Jan 1
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
172 57 13 -44 0 0 12 6 4 29 20 -23 173 20 5 172 34 12 174 9 2 171 43 59
171 36 41 -43 0 0 12 6 17 29 21 -24 171 59 41 171 13 32 172 48 53 170 22 59
170 13 33 -42 0 0 12 6 31 30 23 -25 170 36 44 169 50 12 171 26 17 168 59 13
168 47 34 -41 0 0 12 6 46 30 25 -25 169 10 59 168 23 58 170 1 2 167 32 23
167 18 27 -40 0 0 12 7 1 31 26 -26 167 42 11 166 54 32 168 32 51 166 2 12
165 45 51 -39 0 0 12 7 17 31 28 -27 166 9 59 165 21 32 167 1 26 164 28 17
164 9 23 -38 0 0 12 7 34 31 30 -28 164 33 59 163 44 33 165 26 24 162 50 10
162 28 31 -37 0 0 12 7 52 32 32 -28 162 53 42 162 3 5 163 47 18 161 7 17
160 42 39 -36 0 0 12 8 10 32 34 -29 161 8 34 160 16 29 162 3 37 159 18 56
158 51 2 -35 0 0 12 8 29 32 36 -29 159 17 49 158 23 55 160 14 40 157 24 13
156 52 37 -34 0 0 12 8 49 31 38 -29 157 20 31 156 24 21 158 19 35 155 21 58
154 46 6 -33 0 0 12 9 10 31 41 -30 155 15 24 154 16 22 156 17 15 153 10 32
153 0 0 -32 12 56 12 9 27 31 43 -30 -31 59 41 -32 26 16 -31 31 24 -32 55 24
152 0 0 -31 47 37 12 9 37 31 44 -30 -31 34 29 -32 0 50 -31 6 25 -32 29 43
151 0 0 -31 23 14 12 9 46 30 45 -30 -31 10 13 -31 36 21 -30 42 22 -32 4 59
150 0 0 -30 59 47 12 9 56 30 46 -30 -30 46 52 -31 12 48 -30 19 14 -31 41 13
149 0 0 -30 37 17 12 10 5 30 47 -30 -30 24 27 -30 50 11 -29 57 1 -31 18 23
148 0 0 -30 15 42 12 10 14 29 48 -29 -30 2 57 -30 28 31 -29 35 43 -30 56 30
147 0 0 -29 55 2 12 10 23 29 49 -29 -29 42 23 -30 7 46 -29 15 19 -30 35 34
146 0 0 -29 35 18 12 10 32 28 49 -29 -29 22 44 -29 47 58 -28 55 50 -30 15 34
145 0 0 -29 16 30 12 10 41 28 50 -29 -29 3 59 -29 29 4 -28 37 15 -29 56 31
144 0 0 -28 58 36 12 10 49 28 51 -29 -28 46 10 -29 11 6 -28 19 35 -29 38 24
143 0 0 -28 41 37 12 10 58 27 52 -28 -28 29 16 -28 54 4 -28 2 48 -29 21 12
142 0 0 -28 25 34 12 11 6 27 53 -28 -28 13 16 -28 37 57 -27 46 56 -29 4 57
141 0 0 -28 10 25 12 11 14 26 54 -28 -27 58 10 -28 22 44 -27 31 58 -28 49 37
140 0 0 -27 56 11 12 11 22 25 54 -27 -27 44 0 -28 8 27 -27 17 54 -28 35 12
139 0 0 -27 42 52 12 11 30 25 55 -27 -27 30 43 -27 55 5 -27 4 44 -28 21 44
138 0 0 -27 30 28 12 11 37 24 56 -27 -27 18 22 -27 42 38 -26 52 28 -28 9 10
137 0 0 -27 18 58 12 11 45 24 57 -26 -27 6 54 -27 31 6 -26 41 5 -27 57 32
136 0 0 -27 8 23 12 11 52 23 57 -26 -26 56 21 -27 20 28 -26 30 37 -27 46 50
135 0 0 -26 58 42 12 11 59 22 58 -25 -26 46 43 -27 10 46 -26 21 2 -27 37 3
134 0 0 -26 49 56 12 12 6 22 59 -25 -26 37 58 -27 1 58 -26 12 22 -27 28 11
133 0 0 -26 42 5 12 12 12 21 59 -24 -26 30 8 -26 54 5 -26 4 35 -27 20 15
132 0 0 -26 35 8 12 12 18 20 60 -24 -26 23 13 -26 47 7 -25 57 42 -27 13 14
131 0 0 -26 29 6 12 12 25 20 61 -23 -26 17 12 -26 41 4 -25 51 44 -27 7 8
130 0 0 -26 23 59 12 12 31 19 61 -22 -26 12 6 -26 35 56 -25 46 39 -27 1 58
129 0 0 -26 19 47 12 12 36 18 62 -22 -26 7 54 -26 31 43 -25 42 29 -26 57 44
128 0 0 -26 16 29 12 12 42 17 62 -21 -26 4 37 -26 28 25 -25 39 13 -26 54 25
127 0 0 -26 14 7 12 12 47 17 63 -21 -26 2 15 -26 26 3 -25 36 51 -26 52 2
126 0 0 -26 12 40 12 12 52 16 64 -20 -26 0 48 -26 24 36 -25 35 24 -26 50 35
125 0 0 -26 12 8 12 12 57 15 64 -19 -26 0 16 -26 24 4 -25 34 52 -26 50 5
124 0 0 -26 12 32 12 13 2 14 65 -19 -26 0 40 -26 24 28 -25 35 14 -26 50 30
123 0 0 -26 13 51 12 13 6 14 65 -18 -26 1 58 -26 25 49 -25 36 32 -26 51 51
122 0 0 -26 16 7 12 13 10 13 66 -17 -26 4 13 -26 28 5 -25 38 44 -26 54 10
121 0 0 -26 19 18 12 13 14 12 66 -16 -26 7 23 -26 31 17 -25 41 52 -26 57 25
120 0 0 -26 23 26 12 13 18 11 67 -16 -26 11 30 -26 35 26 -25 45 56 -27 1 37
119 0 0 -26 28 30 12 13 21 10 67 -15 -26 16 32 -26 40 32 -25 50 55 -27 6 47
118 0 0 -26 34 31 12 13 24 9 68 -14 -26 22 31 -26 46 35 -25 56 50 -27 12 54
117 0 0 -26 41 30 12 13 27 8 68 -13 -26 29 28 -26 53 36 -26 3 42 -27 19 59
116 0 0 -26 49 25 12 13 30 8 69 -13 -26 37 21 -27 1 34 -26 11 31 -27 28 2
115 0 0 -26 58 18 12 13 32 7 69 -12 -26 46 12 -27 10 29 -26 20 16 -27 37 3
114 0 0 -27 8 10 12 13 34 6 70 -11 -26 56 0 -27 20 23 -26 29 59 -27 47 4
113 0 0 -27 18 59 12 13 36 5 70 -10 -27 6 47 -27 31 16 -26 40 39 -27 58 3
112 0 0 -27 30 48 12 13 37 4 70 -9 -27 18 32 -27 43 8 -26 52 17 -28 10 3
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2015 Dec 3.0
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