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Updated: 2015 OCT 29, 23:45 UT
Event Rank : 46
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Dec 13 UT, the 89 km diameter asteroid (445) Edna will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Crater for observers along a path across Western Australia, from Port Headland to east of Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.4 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
108 51 5 -12 18 8 17 17 0 5 108 -53 111 51 28 -13 4 4 ... .. .. .. .. .. 117 10 31 -14 7 12 ... .. .. .. .. ..
111 20 1 -13 45 11 17 17 4 8 108 -51 113 36 13 -14 15 34 108 7 55 -12 55 12 118 17 55 -15 5 17 ... .. .. .. .. ..
113 5 6 -14 56 57 17 17 7 10 107 -50 115 0 50 -15 20 2 110 42 56 -14 24 32 119 18 6 -16 0 52 ... .. .. .. .. ..
114 29 28 -16 1 31 17 17 10 12 107 -48 116 12 50 -16 20 8 112 29 27 -15 36 58 120 12 37 -16 54 30 ... .. .. .. .. ..
115 41 1 -17 1 38 17 17 14 13 106 -47 117 15 57 -17 17 10 113 54 9 -16 41 49 121 2 32 -17 46 34 105 40 57 -14 38 2
116 43 35 -17 58 39 17 17 17 14 106 -46 118 12 22 -18 11 54 115 5 36 -17 42 5 121 48 34 -18 37 19 108 47 29 -16 18 54
117 39 22 -18 53 21 17 17 20 15 105 -44 119 3 26 -19 4 50 116 7 50 -18 39 11 122 31 18 -19 26 59 110 39 57 -17 33 57
118 29 46 -19 46 15 17 17 23 16 105 -43 119 50 8 -19 56 18 117 3 10 -19 33 56 123 11 10 -20 15 43 112 6 10 -18 39 55
119 15 46 -20 37 41 17 17 27 17 104 -42 120 33 8 -20 46 33 117 53 2 -20 26 51 123 48 29 -21 3 37 113 17 28 -19 40 43
119 58 4 -21 27 54 17 17 30 18 104 -41 121 12 58 -21 35 47 118 38 26 -21 18 18 124 23 33 -21 50 49 114 18 45 -20 38 7
120 37 9 -22 17 5 17 17 33 19 103 -40 121 50 0 -22 24 7 119 20 5 -22 8 31 124 56 34 -22 37 23 115 12 39 -21 33 1
121 13 26 -23 5 24 17 17 37 20 103 -39 122 24 34 -23 11 42 119 58 29 -22 57 43 125 27 42 -23 23 24 116 0 48 -22 26 1
121 47 14 -23 52 57 17 17 40 20 103 -38 122 56 55 -23 58 37 120 34 3 -23 46 1 125 57 8 -24 8 55 116 44 15 -23 17 30
122 18 47 -24 39 51 17 17 43 21 102 -37 123 27 15 -24 44 56 121 7 5 -24 33 34 126 24 59 -24 54 0 117 23 47 -24 7 43
122 48 18 -25 26 9 17 17 47 22 102 -36 123 55 43 -25 30 44 121 37 51 -25 20 27 126 51 21 -25 38 40 117 59 57 -24 56 54
123 15 56 -26 11 56 17 17 50 22 101 -35 124 22 29 -26 16 4 122 6 33 -26 6 45 127 16 20 -26 22 59 118 33 8 -25 45 11
123 41 50 -26 57 15 17 17 53 23 101 -35 124 47 38 -27 0 59 122 33 21 -26 52 32 127 40 0 -27 6 59 119 3 42 -26 32 42
124 6 7 -27 42 10 17 17 57 23 100 -34 125 11 18 -27 45 31 122 58 23 -27 37 51 128 2 25 -27 50 41 119 31 54 -27 19 33
124 28 52 -28 26 42 17 18 0 24 100 -33 125 33 33 -28 29 44 123 21 46 -28 22 46 128 23 40 -28 34 7 119 57 55 -28 5 49
124 50 11 -29 10 54 17 18 3 24 99 -32 125 54 27 -29 13 38 123 43 36 -29 7 18 128 43 47 -29 17 20 120 21 56 -28 51 34
125 10 8 -29 54 49 17 18 6 24 99 -31 126 14 4 -29 57 16 124 3 57 -29 51 31 129 2 48 -30 0 19 120 44 4 -29 36 51
125 28 45 -30 38 27 17 18 10 25 98 -31 126 32 26 -30 40 39 124 22 53 -30 35 25 129 20 45 -30 43 7 121 4 27 -30 21 43
125 46 7 -31 21 50 17 18 13 25 98 -30 126 49 37 -31 23 49 124 40 29 -31 19 4 129 37 41 -31 25 44 121 23 11 -31 6 13
126 2 15 -32 5 1 17 18 16 26 97 -29 127 5 39 -32 6 47 124 56 46 -32 2 27 129 53 38 -32 8 12 121 40 18 -31 50 24
126 17 11 -32 47 59 17 18 20 26 97 -28 127 20 32 -32 49 35 125 11 47 -32 45 38 130 8 35 -32 50 32 121 55 54 -32 34 16
126 30 57 -33 30 47 17 18 23 26 96 -28 127 34 20 -33 32 12 125 25 34 -33 28 37 130 22 35 -33 32 44 122 10 1 -33 17 52
126 43 34 -34 13 25 17 18 26 26 96 -27 127 47 2 -34 14 42 125 38 8 -34 11 25 130 35 37 -34 14 50 122 22 41 -34 1 13
126 55 3 -34 55 55 17 18 30 27 95 -26 127 58 39 -34 57 3 125 49 30 -34 54 4 130 47 44 -34 56 51 122 33 57 -34 44 21
127 5 24 -35 38 17 17 18 33 27 95 -26 128 9 12 -35 39 18 125 59 41 -35 36 34 130 58 54 -35 38 46 122 43 49 -35 27 17
127 14 38 -36 20 33 17 18 36 27 95 -25 128 18 41 -36 21 26 126 8 42 -36 18 56 131 9 7 -36 20 38 122 52 19 -36 10 2
127 22 45 -37 2 42 17 18 39 27 94 -24 128 27 6 -37 3 30 126 16 31 -37 1 12 131 18 25 -37 2 26 122 59 26 -36 52 36
127 29 45 -37 44 46 17 18 43 27 94 -24 128 34 26 -37 45 29 126 23 10 -37 43 21 131 26 47 -37 44 11 123 5 10 -37 35 2
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2015 Oct 29.0
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