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Updated: 2015 NOV 06, 16:32 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Dec 09 UT, the 87 km diameter asteroid (83) Beatrix will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a broad path across New Zealand, including most of the North Island, but south of Auckland and north of Wellington, and across Australia, from Maroochydore across southern Queensland and The Northern Territory to c Western Australia near Kalbarri at decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 12.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-179 46 20 -44 0 0 14 8 47 17 0 -16 -178 24 22 178 49 33 -177 52 8 178 15 16
179 16 56 -43 0 0 14 8 58 18 1 -17 -179 20 59 177 52 38 -178 48 43 177 18 15
178 17 41 -42 0 0 14 9 9 19 2 -19 179 40 3 176 53 1 -179 47 36 176 18 27
177 15 47 -41 0 0 14 9 22 20 3 -20 178 38 34 175 50 34 179 11 4 175 15 45
176 11 3 -40 0 0 14 9 35 21 4 -21 177 34 28 174 45 6 178 7 11 174 9 57
175 3 20 -39 0 0 14 9 49 22 5 -22 176 27 34 173 36 25 177 0 34 173 0 50
173 52 24 -38 0 0 14 10 4 22 6 -24 175 17 40 172 24 16 175 51 2 171 48 8
172 37 58 -37 0 0 14 10 20 23 7 -25 174 4 31 171 8 19 174 38 21 170 31 31
171 19 43 -36 0 0 14 10 37 24 8 -26 172 47 51 169 48 13 173 22 15 169 10 35
169 57 15 -35 0 0 14 10 55 25 9 -28 171 27 19 168 23 30 172 2 25 167 44 51
168 30 5 -34 0 0 14 11 14 26 11 -29 170 2 29 166 53 34 170 38 25 166 13 40
166 57 35 -33 0 0 14 11 35 27 12 -31 168 32 51 165 17 41 169 9 48 164 36 15
165 18 59 -32 0 0 14 11 57 27 14 -32 166 57 45 163 34 53 167 35 56 162 51 31
163 33 13 -31 0 0 14 12 21 28 16 -33 165 16 20 161 43 49 165 56 3 160 58 0
161 38 53 -30 0 0 14 12 48 28 17 -35 163 27 29 159 42 40 164 9 7 158 53 37
159 34 0 -29 0 0 14 13 16 29 20 -36 161 29 42 157 28 41 162 13 45 156 35 14
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
158 0 0 -28 18 32 14 13 37 29 21 -37 -27 25 20 -29 13 26 -27 4 29 -29 35 55
157 0 0 -27 53 40 14 13 51 29 22 -38 -27 1 0 -28 48 0 -26 40 22 -29 10 14
156 0 0 -27 30 3 14 14 4 29 23 -39 -26 37 53 -28 23 50 -26 17 26 -28 45 50
155 0 0 -27 7 39 14 14 18 29 24 -39 -26 15 56 -28 0 55 -25 55 40 -28 22 42
154 0 0 -26 46 27 14 14 31 29 25 -40 -25 55 10 -27 39 15 -25 35 3 -28 0 50
153 0 0 -26 26 26 14 14 44 29 26 -40 -25 35 33 -27 18 49 -25 15 35 -27 40 13
152 0 0 -26 7 36 14 14 57 29 27 -41 -25 17 5 -26 59 35 -24 57 15 -27 20 48
151 0 0 -25 49 56 14 15 10 29 28 -41 -24 59 45 -26 41 32 -24 40 3 -27 2 37
150 0 0 -25 33 25 14 15 23 29 28 -41 -24 43 33 -26 24 41 -24 23 58 -26 45 37
149 0 0 -25 18 3 14 15 36 28 29 -42 -24 28 28 -26 9 0 -24 8 59 -26 29 48
148 0 0 -25 3 49 14 15 49 28 30 -42 -24 14 29 -25 54 29 -23 55 6 -26 15 10
147 0 0 -24 50 42 14 16 1 28 31 -42 -24 1 36 -25 41 8 -23 42 19 -26 1 42
146 0 0 -24 38 43 14 16 14 28 32 -43 -23 49 50 -25 28 55 -23 30 37 -25 49 23
145 0 0 -24 27 51 14 16 26 27 33 -43 -23 39 9 -25 17 50 -23 20 0 -25 38 13
144 0 0 -24 18 5 14 16 38 27 34 -43 -23 29 33 -25 7 54 -23 10 28 -25 28 13
143 0 0 -24 9 26 14 16 50 27 34 -43 -23 21 2 -24 59 5 -23 2 0 -25 19 20
142 0 0 -24 1 52 14 17 2 26 35 -43 -23 13 36 -24 51 25 -22 54 37 -25 11 36
141 0 0 -23 55 25 14 17 13 26 36 -43 -23 7 15 -24 44 51 -22 48 18 -25 5 0
140 0 0 -23 50 4 14 17 25 25 37 -43 -23 1 58 -24 39 25 -22 43 3 -24 59 32
139 0 0 -23 45 49 14 17 36 25 37 -43 -22 57 46 -24 35 7 -22 38 53 -24 55 12
138 0 0 -23 42 40 14 17 47 24 38 -43 -22 54 39 -24 31 55 -22 35 46 -24 52 0
137 0 0 -23 40 37 14 17 58 24 39 -43 -22 52 37 -24 29 51 -22 33 44 -24 49 55
136 0 0 -23 39 40 14 18 8 23 39 -43 -22 51 39 -24 28 55 -22 32 46 -24 48 59
135 0 0 -23 39 49 14 18 19 23 40 -43 -22 51 46 -24 29 6 -22 32 53 -24 49 11
134 0 0 -23 41 4 14 18 29 22 41 -43 -22 52 59 -24 30 24 -22 34 4 -24 50 31
133 0 0 -23 43 27 14 18 38 22 41 -42 -22 55 17 -24 32 51 -22 36 20 -24 53 0
132 0 0 -23 46 56 14 18 48 21 42 -42 -22 58 40 -24 36 27 -22 39 42 -24 56 38
131 0 0 -23 51 32 14 18 57 20 43 -42 -23 3 10 -24 41 11 -22 44 9 -25 1 25
130 0 0 -23 57 17 14 19 7 20 43 -42 -23 8 46 -24 47 4 -22 49 42 -25 7 22
129 0 0 -24 4 9 14 19 15 19 44 -41 -23 15 29 -24 54 7 -22 56 21 -25 14 30
128 0 0 -24 12 11 14 19 24 18 44 -41 -23 23 19 -25 2 21 -23 4 7 -25 22 48
127 0 0 -24 21 22 14 19 32 18 45 -40 -23 32 17 -25 11 45 -23 13 1 -25 32 18
126 0 0 -24 31 42 14 19 40 17 46 -40 -23 42 24 -25 22 21 -23 23 2 -25 43 1
125 0 0 -24 43 14 14 19 48 16 46 -39 -23 53 40 -25 34 9 -23 34 12 -25 54 56
124 0 0 -24 55 57 14 19 55 15 47 -39 -24 6 6 -25 47 11 -23 46 31 -26 8 6
123 0 0 -25 9 52 14 20 2 14 47 -38 -24 19 42 -26 1 26 -24 0 0 -26 22 30
122 0 0 -25 25 0 14 20 9 14 48 -38 -24 34 29 -26 16 57 -24 14 40 -26 38 10
121 0 0 -25 41 22 14 20 15 13 48 -37 -24 50 29 -26 33 44 -24 30 31 -26 55 7
120 0 0 -25 59 0 14 20 21 12 49 -36 -25 7 43 -26 51 48 -24 47 36 -27 13 23
119 0 0 -26 17 54 14 20 27 11 49 -36 -25 26 11 -27 11 10 -25 5 53 -27 32 57
118 0 0 -26 38 5 14 20 32 10 50 -35 -25 45 54 -27 31 53 -25 25 26 -27 53 53
117 0 0 -26 59 36 14 20 37 9 50 -34 -26 6 54 -27 53 57 -25 46 14 -28 16 11
116 0 0 -27 22 27 14 20 41 8 51 -34 -26 29 11 -28 17 24 -26 8 20 -28 39 54
115 0 0 -27 46 39 14 20 45 8 51 -33 -26 52 49 -28 42 15 -26 31 44 -29 5 2
114 0 0 -28 12 15 14 20 49 7 52 -32 -27 17 47 -29 8 34 -26 56 27 -29 31 38
113 0 0 -28 39 17 14 20 52 6 52 -31 -27 44 7 -29 36 20 -27 22 32 -29 59 45
112 0 0 -29 7 46 14 20 54 5 53 -30 -28 11 52 -30 5 38 -27 50 1 -30 29 23
111 0 0 -29 37 44 14 20 56 4 53 -29 -28 41 2 -30 36 28 -28 18 54 -31 0 36
110 0 0 -30 9 13 14 20 58 3 54 -28 -29 11 41 -31 8 55 -28 49 13 -31 33 27
109 0 0 -30 42 17 14 20 59 2 54 -28 -29 43 50 -31 43 0 -29 21 2 -32 7 59
108 0 0 -31 16 57 14 21 0 1 55 -27 -30 17 31 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2015 Nov 7.0
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