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Updated: 2015 OCT 08, 20:50 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Nov 06 UT, the 85 km diameter asteroid (2363) Cebriones will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Puppis for observers along a north-to-south path over Western Australia passing near Newman, Kalgoorlie and Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.6 mag to 17.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
120 9 23 - 9 26 8 19 35 26 72 103 -27 120 33 35 - 9 24 23 119 45 7 - 9 27 50 122 4 7 - 9 17 29 118 13 19 - 9 33 53
120 15 22 -10 49 21 19 35 35 72 99 -26 120 39 40 -10 47 36 119 51 0 -10 51 4 122 10 34 -10 40 39 118 18 50 -10 57 9
120 20 47 -12 12 28 19 35 44 73 95 -26 120 45 12 -12 10 42 119 56 18 -12 14 11 122 16 32 -12 3 42 118 23 42 -12 20 18
120 25 38 -13 35 30 19 35 53 73 90 -25 120 50 11 -13 33 44 120 1 1 -13 37 15 122 22 1 -13 26 41 118 27 55 -13 43 24
120 29 56 -14 58 32 19 36 2 73 86 -24 120 54 38 -14 56 45 120 5 10 -15 0 17 122 27 1 -14 49 40 118 31 30 -15 6 29
120 33 40 -16 21 36 19 36 11 73 81 -24 120 58 32 -16 19 48 120 8 44 -16 23 21 122 31 32 -16 12 40 118 34 26 -16 29 36
120 36 51 -17 44 45 19 36 20 73 77 -23 121 1 55 -17 42 56 120 11 44 -17 46 31 122 35 36 -17 35 46 118 36 43 -17 52 48
120 39 29 -19 8 1 19 36 29 72 73 -22 121 4 44 -19 6 12 120 14 9 -19 9 48 122 39 11 -18 58 59 118 38 21 -19 16 7
120 41 32 -20 31 29 19 36 38 72 69 -22 121 7 1 -20 29 39 120 15 59 -20 33 16 122 42 18 -20 22 23 118 39 19 -20 39 38
120 43 0 -21 55 10 19 36 47 71 65 -21 121 8 44 -21 53 20 120 17 13 -21 56 59 122 44 55 -21 46 1 118 39 36 -22 3 22
120 43 53 -23 19 9 19 36 56 71 61 -20 121 9 53 -23 17 17 120 17 49 -23 20 58 122 47 4 -23 9 55 118 39 11 -23 27 24
120 44 9 -24 43 28 19 37 5 70 57 -19 121 10 26 -24 41 35 120 17 47 -24 45 17 122 48 42 -24 34 10 118 38 2 -24 51 45
120 43 46 -26 8 10 19 37 14 69 54 -19 121 10 23 -26 6 17 120 17 5 -26 10 0 122 49 50 -25 58 48 118 36 6 -26 16 30
120 42 43 -27 33 19 19 37 23 69 51 -18 121 9 41 -27 31 25 120 15 41 -27 35 10 122 50 24 -27 23 53 118 33 23 -27 41 43
120 40 58 -28 58 59 19 37 32 68 48 -17 121 8 18 -28 57 4 120 13 34 -29 0 50 122 50 25 -28 49 29 118 29 48 -29 7 25
120 38 28 -30 25 13 19 37 40 67 46 -17 121 6 12 -30 23 17 120 10 39 -30 27 5 122 49 51 -30 15 39 118 25 19 -30 33 42
120 35 10 -31 52 5 19 37 49 66 44 -16 121 3 21 -31 50 9 120 6 54 -31 53 59 122 48 38 -31 42 27 118 19 52 -32 0 38
120 31 1 -33 19 40 19 37 58 64 42 -15 120 59 41 -33 17 43 120 2 16 -33 21 34 122 46 45 -33 9 57 118 13 22 -33 28 16
120 25 56 -34 48 3 19 38 7 63 40 -14 120 55 8 -34 46 5 119 56 39 -34 49 57 122 44 8 -34 38 15 118 5 44 -34 56 41
120 19 51 -36 17 17 19 38 16 62 38 -14 120 49 37 -36 15 19 119 49 59 -36 19 13 122 40 44 -36 7 25 117 56 51 -36 25 58
120 12 39 -37 47 29 19 38 25 61 37 -13 120 43 2 -37 45 29 119 42 9 -37 49 25 122 36 29 -37 37 31 117 46 36 -37 56 12
120 4 14 -39 18 43 19 38 34 60 35 -12 120 35 18 -39 16 43 119 33 3 -39 20 40 122 31 16 -39 8 41 117 34 51 -39 27 29
119 54 27 -40 51 7 19 38 43 58 34 -11 120 26 16 -40 49 6 119 22 30 -40 53 5 122 25 1 -40 41 0 117 21 24 -40 59 54
119 43 8 -42 24 47 19 38 52 57 33 -11 120 15 47 -42 22 45 119 10 21 -42 26 45 122 17 35 -42 14 35 117 6 3 -42 33 35
119 30 5 -43 59 50 19 39 1 56 32 -10 120 3 39 -43 57 48 118 56 23 -44 1 49 122 8 49 -43 49 33 116 48 33 -44 8 40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2015 Oct 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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