|
|
Updated: 2015 Sep 16, 02:59 UT
Event Rank : 46
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Oct 29 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (842) Kerstin will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Queensland, passing over Cairns, and across western New South Wales and Victoria.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2931-02603-1 by 842 Kerstin on 2015 Oct 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 53 2 -34 53 11 16 39 55 11 20 -31 141 32 9 -35 10 7 142 13 26 -34 37 0 140 30 0 -36 2 46 143 8 40 -33 54 55
143 24 23 -29 34 24 16 40 15 16 19 -34 143 7 40 -29 44 53 143 40 56 -29 24 11 142 19 29 -30 16 0 144 26 42 -28 56 43
144 16 22 -25 34 59 16 40 36 20 19 -36 144 1 17 -25 43 5 144 31 21 -25 27 3 143 18 9 -26 6 49 145 13 3 -25 5 31
144 50 52 -22 13 29 16 40 56 24 19 -38 144 36 43 -22 20 16 145 4 57 -22 6 49 143 56 24 -22 40 3 145 44 17 -21 48 37
145 15 11 -19 15 21 16 41 17 27 19 -39 145 1 38 -19 21 18 145 28 39 -19 9 31 144 23 10 -19 38 33 146 6 23 -18 53 31
145 32 41 -16 33 29 16 41 37 29 19 -40 145 19 35 -16 38 50 145 45 44 -16 28 13 144 42 24 -16 54 19 146 22 18 -16 13 47
145 45 16 -14 3 44 16 41 57 32 19 -42 145 32 30 -14 8 38 145 58 0 -13 58 54 144 56 17 -14 22 49 146 33 42 -13 45 38
145 54 7 -11 43 27 16 42 18 34 20 -43 145 41 36 -11 48 0 146 6 36 -11 38 57 145 6 7 -12 1 11 146 41 38 -11 26 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2015 Sep 16.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]