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Updated: 2015 AUG 20, 06:11 UT
Event Rank : 42
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Sep 07 UT, the 23 km diameter asteroid (1281) Jeanne will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a very narrow path across Australia from Ayr across northern Queensland (in morning twilight ), across southern Northern Territory and southern Western Australia to slightly north of Albany.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 14.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
112 59 18 -38 0 0 19 53 44 35 329 -33 112 40 19 113 18 23 111 40 53 114 19 17
114 16 38 -37 0 0 19 53 23 36 327 -33 113 57 32 114 35 51 112 57 45 115 37 11
115 36 10 -36 0 0 19 53 3 36 325 -32 115 16 55 115 55 32 114 16 41 116 57 25
116 58 6 -35 0 0 19 52 41 36 323 -31 116 38 38 117 17 40 115 37 50 118 20 14
118 22 38 -34 0 0 19 52 19 36 322 -31 118 2 56 118 42 27 117 1 25 119 45 51
119 50 3 -33 0 0 19 51 57 36 320 -30 119 30 3 120 10 9 118 27 41 121 14 34
121 20 38 -32 0 0 19 51 34 36 318 -29 121 0 17 121 41 6 119 56 53 122 46 44
122 54 45 -31 0 0 19 51 10 36 316 -28 122 34 0 123 15 39 121 29 21 124 22 45
124 32 50 -30 0 0 19 50 45 36 314 -27 124 11 35 124 54 15 123 5 27 126 3 6
126 15 25 -29 0 0 19 50 20 35 312 -25 125 53 33 126 37 27 124 45 39 127 48 24
128 3 8 -28 0 0 19 49 54 35 310 -24 127 40 33 128 25 56 126 30 32 129 39 25
129 56 50 -27 0 0 19 49 27 34 308 -22 129 33 22 130 20 32 128 20 46 131 37 9
131 57 33 -26 0 0 19 48 59 34 306 -21 131 33 1 132 22 23 130 17 15 133 42 55
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
132 0 0 -25 58 50 19 48 59 34 306 -21 -25 46 59 -26 10 44 -25 9 58 -26 48 47
133 0 0 -25 30 28 19 48 45 33 305 -20 -25 18 43 -25 42 16 -24 42 0 -26 20 0
134 0 0 -25 3 2 19 48 32 33 304 -19 -24 51 23 -25 14 45 -24 14 57 -25 52 10
135 0 0 -24 36 33 19 48 19 32 303 -18 -24 24 59 -24 48 10 -23 48 49 -25 25 18
136 0 0 -24 10 59 19 48 6 32 302 -17 -23 59 30 -24 22 31 -23 23 36 -24 59 23
137 0 0 -23 46 21 19 47 53 31 301 -17 -23 34 57 -23 57 49 -22 59 17 -24 34 24
138 0 0 -23 22 39 19 47 41 31 300 -16 -23 11 20 -23 34 2 -22 35 53 -24 10 22
139 0 0 -22 59 53 19 47 28 30 300 -15 -22 48 37 -23 11 11 -22 13 24 -23 47 17
140 0 0 -22 38 1 19 47 17 30 299 -14 -22 26 50 -22 49 16 -21 51 49 -23 25 8
141 0 0 -22 17 5 19 47 5 29 298 -13 -22 5 58 -22 28 16 -21 31 9 -23 3 56
142 0 0 -21 57 4 19 46 53 28 297 -12 -21 46 1 -22 8 11 -21 11 23 -22 43 39
143 0 0 -21 37 59 19 46 42 28 296 -11 -21 26 58 -21 49 2 -20 52 31 -22 24 19
144 0 0 -21 19 48 19 46 31 27 296 -10 -21 8 51 -21 30 48 -20 34 33 -22 5 54
145 0 0 -21 2 32 19 46 21 26 295 -10 -20 51 38 -21 13 29 -20 17 30 -21 48 26
146 0 0 -20 46 11 19 46 10 26 295 -9 -20 35 20 -20 57 5 -20 1 20 -21 31 53
147 0 0 -20 30 45 19 46 0 25 294 -8 -20 19 56 -20 41 37 -19 46 4 -21 16 15
148 0 0 -20 16 14 19 45 51 24 293 -7 -20 5 27 -20 27 3 -19 31 43 -21 1 34
149 0 0 -20 2 37 19 45 41 23 293 -6 -19 51 53 -20 13 24 -19 18 15 -20 47 47
150 0 0 -19 49 55 19 45 32 23 292 -5 -19 39 13 -20 0 40 -19 5 42 -20 34 57
151 0 0 -19 38 8 19 45 23 22 292 -4 -19 27 28 -19 48 51 -18 54 2 -20 23 2
152 0 0 -19 27 16 19 45 14 21 291 -3 -19 16 37 -19 37 57 -18 43 16 -20 12 3
153 0 0 -19 17 18 19 45 6 20 291 -2 -19 6 41 -19 27 58 -18 33 25 -20 1 59
154 0 0 -19 8 16 19 44 58 20 290 -1 -18 57 40 -19 18 55 -18 24 28 -19 52 51
155 0 0 -19 0 8 19 44 51 19 290 0 -18 49 34 -19 10 46 -18 16 25 -19 44 39
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2015 Aug 20.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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