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Updated: 2015 JUN 12, 22:41 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Aug 07 UT, the 158 km diameter asteroid (690) Wratislavia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path passing near North Island New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 28.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
175 22 31 -55 0 0 15 7 57 16 9 -40 176 39 39 174 5 19 177 16 39 173 28 12
175 43 45 -54 0 0 15 8 3 17 8 -41 176 58 58 174 28 27 177 35 4 173 52 17
176 4 16 -53 0 0 15 8 9 18 8 -41 177 17 42 174 50 46 177 52 56 174 15 27
176 24 7 -52 0 0 15 8 15 19 8 -41 177 35 52 175 12 19 178 10 18 174 37 49
176 43 21 -51 0 0 15 8 22 20 7 -42 177 53 32 175 33 9 178 27 12 174 59 25
177 2 2 -50 0 0 15 8 30 21 7 -42 178 10 43 175 53 19 178 43 41 175 20 19
177 20 12 -49 0 0 15 8 37 22 7 -42 178 27 28 176 12 54 178 59 45 175 40 35
177 37 52 -48 0 0 15 8 45 23 6 -43 178 43 49 176 31 55 179 15 28 176 0 14
177 55 6 -47 0 0 15 8 53 24 6 -43 178 59 47 176 50 25 179 30 50 176 19 21
178 11 55 -46 0 0 15 9 2 25 6 -43 179 15 25 177 8 25 179 45 54 176 37 56
178 28 21 -45 0 0 15 9 11 26 6 -43 179 30 43 177 25 59 -179 59 20 176 56 3
178 44 26 -44 0 0 15 9 20 27 5 -43 179 45 44 177 43 8 -179 44 50 177 13 43
179 0 11 -43 0 0 15 9 30 28 5 -44 -179 59 32 177 59 54 -179 30 35 177 30 59
179 15 37 -42 0 0 15 9 40 29 5 -44 -179 45 3 178 16 19 -179 16 34 177 47 51
179 30 47 -41 0 0 15 9 50 30 4 -44 -179 30 49 178 32 23 -179 2 45 178 4 22
179 45 40 -40 0 0 15 10 0 31 4 -44 -179 16 47 178 48 9 -178 49 9 178 20 33
-179 59 41 -39 0 0 15 10 11 32 4 -44 -179 2 57 179 3 38 -178 35 42 178 36 25
-179 45 15 -38 0 0 15 10 23 33 4 -44 -178 49 18 179 18 50 -178 22 26 178 52 1
-179 31 2 -37 0 0 15 10 34 34 3 -44 -178 35 49 179 33 48 -178 9 18 179 7 20
-179 17 0 -36 0 0 15 10 46 35 3 -44 -178 22 30 179 48 32 -177 56 19 179 22 25
-179 3 9 -35 0 0 15 10 58 36 3 -44 -178 9 19 -179 56 56 -177 43 27 179 37 16
-178 49 27 -34 0 0 15 11 11 37 2 -44 -177 56 15 -179 42 36 -177 30 42 179 51 54
-178 35 54 -33 0 0 15 11 23 38 2 -44 -177 43 18 -179 28 27 -177 18 2 -179 53 39
-178 22 29 -32 0 0 15 11 37 39 2 -44 -177 30 28 -179 14 27 -177 5 28 -179 39 23
-178 9 11 -31 0 0 15 11 50 40 2 -44 -177 17 42 -179 0 37 -176 52 58 -179 25 17
-177 56 0 -30 0 0 15 12 4 41 1 -44 -177 5 2 -178 46 54 -176 40 32 -179 11 19
-177 42 54 -29 0 0 15 12 18 42 1 -43 -176 52 25 -178 33 19 -176 28 9 -178 57 30
-177 29 52 -28 0 0 15 12 32 43 1 -43 -176 39 51 -178 19 50 -176 15 49 -178 43 47
-177 16 55 -27 0 0 15 12 46 44 0 -43 -176 27 20 -178 6 26 -176 3 31 -178 30 11
-177 4 2 -26 0 0 15 13 1 45 360 -43 -176 14 52 -177 53 8 -175 51 14 -178 16 40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2015 Jun 12.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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