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Updated: 2015 Jun 12, 02:06 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Jul 23 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (472) Roma will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path running down the western coast of West Australia, from Carnarvon to Albay, passing over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.6 mag to 13.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5834-00566-1 by 472 Roma on 2015 Jul 23
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
112 16 18 -17 57 57 17 57 9 55 86 -71 112 32 13 -17 53 56 112 0 20 -18 1 56 113 36 46 -17 37 20 110 54 10 -18 18 6
112 37 2 -19 6 36 17 57 26 55 84 -71 112 53 1 -19 2 34 112 20 59 -19 10 38 113 57 54 -18 45 49 111 14 29 -19 26 56
112 57 0 -20 15 19 17 57 43 55 82 -70 113 13 4 -20 11 14 112 40 51 -20 19 22 114 18 18 -19 54 21 111 33 59 -20 35 49
113 16 12 -21 24 6 17 58 0 56 80 -70 113 32 23 -21 20 0 112 59 58 -21 28 12 114 38 1 -21 2 58 111 52 40 -21 44 47
113 34 42 -22 33 1 17 58 17 56 78 -70 113 50 59 -22 28 52 113 18 20 -22 37 9 114 57 4 -22 11 42 112 10 34 -22 53 53
113 52 28 -23 42 5 17 58 34 56 76 -69 114 8 52 -23 37 54 113 35 59 -23 46 15 115 15 27 -23 20 35 112 27 42 -24 3 7
114 9 32 -24 51 20 17 58 51 56 74 -69 114 26 5 -24 47 6 113 52 56 -24 55 32 115 33 13 -24 29 38 112 44 3 -25 12 34
114 25 56 -26 0 47 17 59 8 56 73 -68 114 42 37 -25 56 32 114 9 10 -26 5 2 115 50 21 -25 38 54 112 59 40 -26 22 14
114 41 38 -27 10 30 17 59 25 56 71 -68 114 58 30 -27 6 13 114 24 43 -27 14 47 116 6 52 -26 48 24 113 14 31 -27 32 9
114 56 40 -28 20 31 17 59 42 56 69 -67 115 13 42 -28 16 10 114 39 34 -28 24 50 116 22 47 -27 58 12 113 28 37 -28 42 22
115 11 2 -29 30 50 17 59 59 55 67 -67 115 28 16 -29 26 27 114 53 44 -29 35 12 116 38 6 -29 8 18 113 41 58 -29 52 55
115 24 43 -30 41 32 18 0 16 55 65 -66 115 42 9 -30 37 6 115 7 12 -30 45 56 116 52 49 -30 18 46 113 54 34 -31 3 50
115 37 43 -31 52 37 18 0 33 55 63 -65 115 55 22 -31 48 9 115 19 58 -31 57 5 117 6 56 -31 29 37 114 6 22 -32 15 9
115 50 1 -33 4 9 18 0 50 55 61 -65 116 7 55 -32 59 38 115 32 1 -33 8 40 117 20 27 -32 40 54 114 17 23 -33 26 56
116 1 36 -34 16 10 18 1 7 54 60 -64 116 19 45 -34 11 36 115 43 20 -34 20 44 117 33 21 -33 52 39 114 27 34 -34 39 13
116 12 27 -35 28 43 18 1 24 54 58 -63 116 30 53 -35 24 6 115 53 54 -35 33 20 117 45 37 -35 4 56 114 36 55 -35 52 2
116 22 32 -36 41 51 18 1 41 53 56 -62 116 41 17 -36 37 10 116 3 40 -36 46 31 117 57 14 -36 17 46 114 45 22 -37 5 26
Uncertainty in time = +/- 13 secs
Prediction of 2015 Apr 3.0
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