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Updated: 2014 OCT 11, 22:50 UT
Event Rank : 37
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Mar 27 UT, the 112 km diameter asteroid (1583) Antilochus will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a broad path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Timaru to Hokitika, passing just south of Christchurch, and across north-eastern Australia, along the Queensland coast from Bundaberg to Tully, then across the York Peninsula passing south of Weipa.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.7 mag to 16.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 48 2 -47 26 24 11 16 2 40 73 -42 172 42 31 -47 42 8 174 51 51 -47 10 16 168 32 40 -48 34 45 178 27 29 -46 9 44
173 11 4 -46 34 0 11 16 10 40 75 -43 172 6 20 -46 49 26 174 14 9 -46 18 11 167 59 40 -47 40 58 177 47 24 -45 18 43
172 33 38 -45 41 44 11 16 17 40 76 -44 171 29 37 -45 56 51 173 36 1 -45 26 13 167 25 51 -46 47 18 177 7 7 -44 27 48
171 55 42 -44 49 33 11 16 25 40 77 -44 170 52 20 -45 4 23 172 57 28 -44 34 20 166 51 11 -45 53 43 176 26 34 -43 36 59
171 17 14 -43 57 27 11 16 32 39 78 -45 170 14 28 -44 11 58 172 18 26 -43 42 32 166 15 40 -45 0 13 175 45 43 -42 46 13
170 38 13 -43 5 23 11 16 40 39 79 -45 169 35 59 -43 19 36 171 38 54 -42 50 46 165 39 16 -44 6 44 175 4 33 -41 55 30
169 58 36 -42 13 20 11 16 47 39 81 -46 168 56 50 -42 27 15 170 58 50 -41 59 1 165 1 57 -43 13 16 174 23 0 -41 4 48
169 18 20 -41 21 17 11 16 55 39 82 -46 168 16 59 -41 34 54 170 18 11 -41 7 16 164 23 43 -42 19 46 173 41 2 -40 14 5
168 37 25 -40 29 12 11 17 3 38 83 -47 167 36 25 -40 42 30 169 36 54 -40 15 29 163 44 29 -41 26 12 172 58 38 -39 23 20
167 55 46 -39 37 3 11 17 10 38 84 -47 166 55 4 -39 50 2 168 54 58 -39 23 38 163 4 14 -40 32 33 172 15 43 -38 32 33
167 13 21 -38 44 48 11 17 18 37 85 -47 166 12 53 -38 57 28 168 12 19 -38 31 42 162 22 53 -39 38 46 171 32 16 -37 41 41
166 30 6 -37 52 26 11 17 25 37 86 -48 165 29 49 -38 4 46 167 28 54 -37 39 39 161 40 24 -38 44 49 170 48 12 -36 50 43
165 45 59 -36 59 55 11 17 33 36 87 -48 164 45 48 -37 11 55 166 44 39 -36 47 28 160 56 41 -37 50 39 170 3 30 -35 59 37
165 0 54 -36 7 12 11 17 40 36 88 -48 164 0 47 -36 18 51 165 59 30 -35 55 5 160 11 40 -36 56 14 169 18 5 -35 8 22
164 14 47 -35 14 16 11 17 48 35 90 -49 163 14 39 -35 25 33 165 13 24 -35 2 30 159 25 15 -36 1 31 168 31 54 -34 16 55
163 27 34 -34 21 4 11 17 55 35 91 -49 162 27 20 -34 31 59 164 26 15 -34 9 39 158 37 20 -35 6 27 167 44 52 -33 25 15
162 39 9 -33 27 33 11 18 3 34 92 -49 161 38 44 -33 38 5 163 37 58 -33 16 31 157 47 45 -34 10 58 166 56 55 -32 33 21
161 49 24 -32 33 41 11 18 10 33 93 -49 160 48 44 -32 43 48 162 48 27 -32 23 2 156 56 23 -33 15 0 166 7 58 -31 41 8
160 58 14 -31 39 24 11 18 18 33 94 -49 159 57 12 -31 49 5 161 57 35 -31 29 10 156 3 3 -32 18 29 165 17 55 -30 48 36
160 5 28 -30 44 39 11 18 25 32 95 -49 159 3 59 -30 53 52 161 5 15 -30 34 52 155 7 31 -31 21 19 164 26 40 -29 55 42
159 10 59 -29 49 22 11 18 33 31 96 -49 158 8 54 -29 58 5 160 11 16 -29 40 3 154 9 33 -30 23 24 163 34 6 -29 2 22
158 14 34 -28 53 28 11 18 41 30 96 -49 157 11 46 -29 1 38 159 15 29 -28 44 39 153 8 50 -29 24 38 162 40 5 -28 8 33
157 16 0 -27 56 52 11 18 48 29 97 -49 156 12 19 -28 4 27 158 17 42 -27 48 36 152 4 59 -28 24 50 161 44 27 -27 14 12
156 15 1 -26 59 28 11 18 56 28 98 -48 155 10 15 -27 6 24 157 17 40 -26 51 48 150 57 31 -27 23 51 160 47 2 -26 19 14
155 11 18 -26 1 8 11 19 3 27 99 -48 154 5 13 -26 7 20 156 15 6 -25 54 9 149 45 49 -26 21 26 159 47 38 -25 23 35
154 4 27 -25 1 44 11 19 11 26 100 -48 152 56 46 -25 7 6 155 9 39 -24 55 29 148 29 5 -25 17 17 158 45 59 -24 27 8
152 53 58 -24 1 3 11 19 18 25 101 -47 151 44 18 -24 5 28 154 0 53 -23 55 40 147 6 12 -24 11 1 157 41 49 -23 29 48
151 39 13 -22 58 53 11 19 26 23 102 -46 150 27 6 -23 2 11 152 48 14 -22 54 29 145 35 34 -23 2 2 156 34 45 -22 31 25
150 19 22 -21 54 54 11 19 33 22 103 -46 149 4 9 -21 56 51 151 31 1 -21 51 40 143 54 47 -21 49 28 155 24 22 -21 31 51
148 53 16 -20 48 42 11 19 41 20 103 -45 147 34 3 -20 49 0 150 8 16 -20 46 53 141 59 52 -20 31 55 154 10 6 -20 30 52
147 19 18 -19 39 41 11 19 48 19 104 -44 145 54 42 -19 37 50 148 38 41 -19 39 39 139 43 15 -19 6 42 152 51 15 -19 28 13
145 35 0 -18 26 59 11 19 56 17 105 -42 144 2 48 -18 22 13 147 0 21 -18 29 17 136 46 33 -17 27 19 151 26 51 -18 23 34
143 36 15 -17 9 7 11 20 3 15 106 -41 141 52 25 -17 0 1 145 10 15 -17 14 43 131 34 4 -15 0 17 149 55 34 -17 16 24
141 15 21 -15 43 22 11 20 11 12 107 -39 139 10 46 -15 26 43 143 3 15 -15 54 6 ... .. .. .. .. .. 148 15 31 -16 6 4
138 13 34 -14 3 9 11 20 19 9 108 -36 135 15 12 -13 27 24 140 28 45 -14 23 42 ... .. .. .. .. .. 146 23 41 -14 51 29
132 55 0 -11 34 55 11 20 26 3 109 -32 ... .. .. .. .. .. 136 56 19 -12 32 51 ... .. .. .. .. .. 144 14 58 -13 30 50
Uncertainty in time = +/- 17 secs
Prediction of 2015 Feb 12.0
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