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Updated: 2014 OCT 11, 21:39 UT
Event Rank : 70
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Feb 21 UT, the 110 km diameter asteroid (595) Polyxena will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path running along the east coast of Australia passing near Brisbane and Sydney.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 20.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
153 28 21 -18 58 18 16 7 40 62 83 -47 154 3 43 -18 55 18 152 52 47 -19 1 12 155 2 41 -18 50 4 151 52 32 -19 5 53
153 27 22 -20 15 6 16 8 6 61 80 -46 154 3 1 -20 12 5 152 51 30 -20 18 2 155 2 28 -20 6 49 151 50 45 -20 22 45
153 25 29 -21 32 4 16 8 32 61 78 -45 154 1 27 -21 29 2 152 49 18 -21 35 1 155 1 25 -21 23 43 151 48 0 -21 39 45
153 22 40 -22 49 13 16 8 58 61 76 -44 153 58 59 -22 46 9 152 46 8 -22 52 10 154 59 32 -22 40 49 151 44 15 -22 56 56
153 18 56 -24 6 35 16 9 24 61 73 -43 153 55 37 -24 3 31 152 42 1 -24 9 34 154 56 47 -23 58 9 151 39 28 -24 14 21
153 14 12 -25 24 14 16 9 50 60 71 -42 153 51 19 -25 21 9 152 36 52 -25 27 14 154 53 9 -25 15 45 151 33 38 -25 32 2
153 8 28 -26 42 12 16 10 16 60 69 -41 153 46 1 -26 39 5 152 30 41 -26 45 12 154 48 36 -26 33 40 151 26 40 -26 50 2
153 1 40 -28 0 31 16 10 42 59 67 -40 153 39 42 -27 57 24 152 23 24 -28 3 32 154 43 5 -27 51 56 151 18 32 -28 8 23
152 53 45 -29 19 14 16 11 8 59 65 -40 153 32 19 -29 16 6 152 14 57 -29 22 16 154 36 34 -29 10 37 151 9 10 -29 27 7
152 44 40 -30 38 24 16 11 34 58 63 -39 153 23 48 -30 35 16 152 5 16 -30 41 27 154 28 59 -30 29 45 150 58 30 -30 46 19
152 34 19 -31 58 5 16 12 0 58 61 -38 153 14 4 -31 54 56 151 54 18 -32 1 8 154 20 16 -31 49 24 150 46 27 -32 6 1
152 22 37 -33 18 19 16 12 27 57 60 -37 153 3 2 -33 15 9 151 41 55 -33 21 22 154 10 21 -33 9 36 150 32 54 -33 26 15
152 9 28 -34 39 9 16 12 53 56 58 -36 152 50 37 -34 35 58 151 28 2 -34 42 12 153 59 9 -34 30 24 150 17 45 -34 47 5
151 54 45 -36 0 39 16 13 19 55 56 -35 152 36 42 -35 57 28 151 12 31 -36 3 43 153 46 32 -35 51 53 150 0 51 -36 8 35
151 38 20 -37 22 53 16 13 45 54 55 -34 152 21 9 -37 19 42 150 55 13 -37 25 56 153 32 24 -37 14 6 149 42 2 -37 30 49
151 20 3 -38 45 54 16 14 11 53 54 -33 152 3 49 -38 42 43 150 35 58 -38 48 58 153 16 37 -38 37 7 149 21 8 -38 53 49
150 59 42 -40 9 47 16 14 37 52 53 -32 151 44 29 -40 6 37 150 14 34 -40 12 50 152 59 0 -40 1 0 148 57 56 -40 17 40
150 37 3 -41 34 37 16 15 3 51 51 -31 151 22 59 -41 31 27 149 50 46 -41 37 39 152 39 21 -41 25 50 148 32 9 -41 42 26
150 11 51 -43 0 27 16 15 29 50 50 -30 150 59 1 -42 57 18 149 24 18 -43 3 28 152 17 26 -42 51 42 148 3 30 -43 8 13
149 43 46 -44 27 24 16 15 55 49 50 -29 150 32 19 -44 24 16 148 54 49 -44 30 23 151 52 58 -44 18 41 147 31 37 -44 35 4
149 12 25 -45 55 33 16 16 21 48 49 -28 150 2 29 -45 52 26 148 21 54 -45 58 30 151 25 38 -45 46 53 146 56 2 -46 3 5
148 37 19 -47 24 59 16 16 47 47 48 -27 149 29 4 -47 21 55 147 45 5 -47 27 53 150 55 0 -47 16 24 146 16 14 -47 32 23
147 57 54 -48 55 49 16 17 13 46 48 -25 148 51 34 -48 52 48 147 3 44 -48 58 40 150 20 36 -48 47 22 145 31 33 -49 3 1
147 13 29 -50 28 11 16 17 40 44 47 -24 148 9 16 -50 25 14 146 17 8 -50 30 56 149 41 47 -50 19 53 144 41 11 -50 35 8
146 23 9 -52 2 11 16 18 6 43 47 -23 147 21 20 -51 59 20 145 24 20 -52 4 50 148 57 48 -51 54 5 143 44 8 -52 8 49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
Prediction of 2015 Jan 3.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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