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Updated: 2014 Oct 11, 20:37 UT
Event Rank : 28
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Jan 16 UT, the 96 km diameter asteroid (1404) Ajax will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Corvus for observers along a large uncertainty path across Northern Territory, eastern South Australia and western Victoria, passing over Adelaide and Murray Bridge and near Tennant Creek, Port Augusta and Mount Gambier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.5 mag to 17.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6114-00085-1 by 1404 Ajax on 2015 Jan 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
133 31 40 - 9 36 30 18 51 38 67 115 -29 133 58 34 - 9 30 43 133 4 41 - 9 42 12 136 7 26 - 9 1 44 130 52 35 -10 8 46
133 52 47 -10 58 51 18 51 51 68 112 -28 134 19 46 -10 53 1 133 25 42 -11 4 35 136 29 5 -10 23 51 131 13 10 -11 31 22
134 13 20 -12 20 50 18 52 4 69 109 -27 134 40 26 -12 14 58 133 46 9 -12 26 37 136 50 15 -11 45 36 131 33 4 -12 53 37
134 33 22 -13 42 31 18 52 18 70 106 -26 135 0 35 -13 36 37 134 6 3 -13 48 21 137 10 59 -13 7 2 131 52 20 -14 15 33
134 52 55 -15 3 57 18 52 31 71 103 -25 135 20 17 -14 58 0 134 25 27 -15 9 50 137 31 21 -14 28 12 132 11 2 -15 37 16
135 12 1 -16 25 11 18 52 44 71 99 -24 135 39 33 -16 19 11 134 44 24 -16 31 6 137 51 23 -15 49 9 132 29 10 -16 58 47
135 30 43 -17 46 15 18 52 58 72 95 -23 135 58 26 -17 40 12 135 2 55 -17 52 14 138 11 6 -17 9 56 132 46 47 -18 20 9
135 49 3 -19 7 14 18 53 11 72 91 -22 136 16 57 -19 1 7 135 21 3 -19 13 15 138 30 34 -18 30 36 133 3 55 -19 41 25
136 7 3 -20 28 8 18 53 24 72 86 -21 136 35 10 -20 21 59 135 38 49 -20 34 13 138 49 48 -19 51 11 133 20 35 -21 2 39
136 24 44 -21 49 2 18 53 38 73 82 -20 136 53 6 -21 42 50 135 56 16 -21 55 11 139 8 50 -21 11 45 133 36 50 -22 23 53
136 42 9 -23 9 59 18 53 51 73 77 -19 137 10 46 -23 3 42 136 13 25 -23 16 11 139 27 43 -22 32 20 133 52 40 -23 45 10
136 59 19 -24 31 0 18 54 4 73 73 -18 137 28 13 -24 24 40 136 30 18 -24 37 16 139 46 29 -23 52 59 134 8 8 -25 6 33
137 16 16 -25 52 9 18 54 18 72 68 -17 137 45 28 -25 45 45 136 46 57 -25 58 29 140 5 10 -25 13 44 134 23 14 -26 28 4
137 33 2 -27 13 29 18 54 31 72 64 -16 138 2 34 -27 7 0 137 3 22 -27 19 53 140 23 48 -26 34 39 134 37 59 -27 49 48
137 49 37 -28 35 2 18 54 44 72 60 -15 138 19 31 -28 28 29 137 19 36 -28 41 30 140 42 24 -27 55 46 134 52 24 -29 11 46
138 6 5 -29 56 52 18 54 58 71 55 -14 138 36 21 -29 50 15 137 35 40 -30 3 25 141 1 2 -29 17 9 135 6 31 -30 34 2
138 22 25 -31 19 2 18 55 11 71 52 -13 138 53 7 -31 12 20 137 51 36 -31 25 40 141 19 43 -30 38 49 135 20 20 -31 56 40
138 38 41 -32 41 35 18 55 24 70 48 -12 139 9 49 -32 34 47 138 7 24 -32 48 18 141 38 30 -32 0 51 135 33 51 -33 19 41
138 54 53 -34 4 34 18 55 38 69 45 -11 139 26 30 -33 57 41 138 23 7 -34 11 22 141 57 26 -33 23 17 135 47 7 -34 43 11
139 11 4 -35 28 3 18 55 51 68 41 -10 139 43 12 -35 21 4 138 38 46 -35 34 57 142 16 33 -34 46 11 136 0 6 -36 7 13
139 27 15 -36 52 6 18 56 4 67 39 -9 139 59 56 -36 45 0 138 54 23 -36 59 6 142 35 53 -36 9 37 136 12 50 -37 31 49
139 43 27 -38 16 45 18 56 18 67 36 -8 140 16 45 -38 9 34 139 9 58 -38 23 52 142 55 31 -37 33 37 136 25 19 -38 57 5
139 59 44 -39 42 7 18 56 31 65 33 -7 140 33 41 -39 34 48 139 25 35 -39 49 21 143 15 29 -38 58 16 136 37 32 -40 23 5
140 16 6 -41 8 14 18 56 44 64 31 -6 140 50 47 -41 0 48 139 41 14 -41 15 35 143 35 52 -40 23 39 136 49 31 -41 49 54
140 32 37 -42 35 13 18 56 58 63 29 -5 141 8 4 -42 27 39 139 56 58 -42 42 41 143 56 43 -41 49 49 137 1 15 -43 17 36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 22 secs
Prediction of 2014 Dec 5.0
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