|
|
Updated: 2014 SEP 19, 12:58 UT
Event Rank : 42
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 16 UT, the 24 km diameter asteroid (453) Tea will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path passing near Devonport in Tasmania. The path then runs along the east coast of Victoria and NSW, passing near Sale, Sydney and Newcastle.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.2 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 9 38 -48 33 51 13 22 22 30 299 -22 140 52 28 -48 27 56 141 26 58 -48 39 47 140 0 2 -48 9 26 142 22 13 -48 58 15
141 30 44 -47 52 27 13 22 35 30 299 -22 141 13 48 -47 46 36 141 47 51 -47 58 18 140 22 1 -47 28 20 142 42 22 -48 16 32
141 52 29 -47 11 26 13 22 47 30 298 -23 141 35 45 -47 5 39 142 9 23 -47 17 13 140 44 35 -46 47 36 143 3 14 -47 35 13
142 14 51 -46 30 47 13 23 0 30 297 -24 141 58 18 -46 25 4 142 31 34 -46 36 30 141 7 41 -46 7 14 143 24 48 -46 54 17
142 37 50 -45 50 29 13 23 12 30 296 -24 142 21 27 -45 44 50 142 54 23 -45 56 7 141 31 20 -45 27 12 143 47 3 -46 13 42
143 1 26 -45 10 30 13 23 25 30 296 -25 142 45 12 -45 4 55 143 17 49 -45 16 4 141 55 32 -44 47 29 144 9 59 -45 33 27
143 25 37 -44 30 49 13 23 37 30 295 -26 143 9 32 -44 25 18 143 41 52 -44 36 20 142 20 17 -44 8 4 144 33 34 -44 53 31
143 50 25 -43 51 27 13 23 50 30 294 -27 143 34 27 -43 46 0 144 6 32 -43 56 54 142 45 35 -43 28 57 144 57 50 -44 13 53
144 15 50 -43 12 21 13 24 2 30 293 -27 143 59 58 -43 6 58 144 31 50 -43 17 45 143 11 26 -42 50 6 145 22 46 -43 34 32
144 41 51 -42 33 31 13 24 15 30 293 -28 144 26 5 -42 28 11 144 57 45 -42 38 51 143 37 50 -42 11 31 145 48 21 -42 55 28
145 8 29 -41 54 57 13 24 27 30 292 -29 144 52 48 -41 49 40 145 24 18 -42 0 13 144 4 49 -41 33 10 146 14 38 -42 16 39
145 35 45 -41 16 36 13 24 39 30 291 -29 145 20 9 -41 11 23 145 51 30 -41 21 49 144 32 22 -40 55 3 146 41 36 -41 38 4
146 3 40 -40 38 29 13 24 52 30 290 -30 145 48 7 -40 33 19 146 19 21 -40 43 39 145 0 32 -40 17 10 147 9 15 -40 59 43
146 32 14 -40 0 35 13 25 4 30 290 -31 146 16 45 -39 55 28 146 47 53 -40 5 41 145 29 18 -39 39 29 147 37 38 -40 21 35
147 1 30 -39 22 53 13 25 17 30 289 -31 146 46 2 -39 17 49 147 17 6 -39 27 56 145 58 41 -39 1 59 148 6 45 -39 43 40
147 31 27 -38 45 22 13 25 29 29 288 -32 147 16 1 -38 40 21 147 47 2 -38 50 22 146 28 44 -38 24 41 148 36 37 -39 5 55
148 2 8 -38 8 1 13 25 42 29 287 -33 147 46 42 -38 3 4 148 17 43 -38 12 58 146 59 27 -37 47 33 149 7 16 -38 28 22
148 33 35 -37 30 50 13 25 54 29 287 -34 148 18 8 -37 25 56 148 49 9 -37 35 44 147 30 53 -37 10 35 149 38 44 -37 50 58
149 5 48 -36 53 48 13 26 7 29 286 -34 148 50 21 -36 48 57 149 21 24 -36 58 39 148 3 2 -36 33 46 150 11 4 -37 13 43
149 38 51 -36 16 55 13 26 19 28 285 -35 149 23 22 -36 12 7 149 54 30 -36 21 43 148 35 58 -35 57 5 150 44 16 -36 36 37
150 12 46 -35 40 9 13 26 31 28 284 -36 149 57 14 -35 35 24 150 28 28 -35 44 54 149 9 42 -35 20 31 151 18 24 -35 59 38
150 47 36 -35 3 30 13 26 44 28 284 -36 150 32 0 -34 58 48 151 3 21 -35 8 12 149 44 17 -34 44 5 151 53 32 -35 22 46
151 23 24 -34 26 57 13 26 56 27 283 -37 151 7 43 -34 22 18 151 39 14 -34 31 36 150 19 46 -34 7 44 152 29 41 -34 46 1
152 0 13 -33 50 30 13 27 9 27 282 -37 151 44 26 -33 45 54 152 16 9 -33 55 5 150 56 11 -33 31 29 153 6 57 -34 9 20
152 38 7 -33 14 7 13 27 21 26 281 -38 152 22 13 -33 9 34 152 54 11 -33 18 39 151 33 38 -32 55 19 153 45 24 -33 32 44
153 17 11 -32 37 48 13 27 34 26 281 -39 153 1 9 -32 33 18 153 33 24 -32 42 17 152 12 9 -32 19 13 154 25 6 -32 56 11
153 57 30 -32 1 32 13 27 46 25 280 -39 153 41 18 -31 57 6 154 13 53 -32 5 57 152 51 49 -31 43 10 155 6 10 -32 19 41
154 39 10 -31 25 18 13 27 59 25 279 -40 154 22 46 -31 20 55 154 55 44 -31 29 40 153 32 43 -31 7 9 155 48 42 -31 43 12
155 22 17 -30 49 4 13 28 11 24 279 -40 155 5 39 -30 44 45 155 39 5 -30 53 23 154 14 58 -30 31 10 156 32 50 -31 6 44
156 6 59 -30 12 51 13 28 24 24 278 -41 155 50 6 -30 8 35 156 24 4 -30 17 6 154 58 40 -29 55 11 157 18 43 -30 30 15
156 53 25 -29 36 36 13 28 36 23 277 -42 156 36 15 -29 32 24 157 10 49 -29 40 47 155 43 57 -29 19 12 158 6 31 -29 53 44
157 41 47 -29 0 19 13 28 48 22 276 -42 157 24 15 -28 56 11 157 59 32 -29 4 26 156 30 58 -28 43 10 158 56 27 -29 17 9
158 32 16 -28 23 57 13 29 1 22 276 -43 158 14 21 -28 19 53 158 50 26 -28 28 0 157 19 54 -28 7 5 159 48 47 -28 40 29
159 25 8 -27 47 30 13 29 13 21 275 -43 159 6 45 -27 43 30 159 43 47 -27 51 28 158 10 58 -27 30 56 160 43 49 -28 3 41
160 20 42 -27 10 54 13 29 26 20 274 -44 160 1 46 -27 7 0 160 39 56 -27 14 47 159 4 25 -26 54 40 161 41 57 -27 26 42
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2014 Sep 19.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]