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Updated: 2014 OCT 05, 10:21 UT
Event Rank : 27
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 05 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (1236) Thais will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a path across Western Australia passing near Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.7 mag to 15.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
111 36 47 -42 26 10 16 22 43 31 260 -32 111 22 46 -42 27 6 111 50 53 -42 25 13 110 14 6 -42 31 8 113 1 45 -42 19 52
111 45 39 -41 38 31 16 22 48 30 259 -33 111 31 43 -41 39 29 111 59 39 -41 37 32 110 23 33 -41 43 40 113 10 3 -41 32 1
111 55 46 -40 50 38 16 22 53 30 259 -33 111 41 55 -40 51 37 112 9 41 -40 49 36 110 34 10 -40 55 59 113 19 41 -40 43 54
112 7 9 -40 2 28 16 22 57 30 258 -34 111 53 22 -40 3 30 112 20 59 -40 1 24 110 45 59 -40 8 3 113 30 40 -39 55 30
112 19 47 -39 14 2 16 23 2 29 257 -35 112 6 4 -39 15 6 112 33 34 -39 12 55 110 58 59 -39 19 52 113 42 59 -39 6 46
112 33 42 -38 25 17 16 23 7 29 257 -36 112 20 1 -38 26 24 112 47 26 -38 24 7 111 13 10 -38 31 25 113 56 39 -38 17 42
112 48 54 -37 36 11 16 23 12 29 256 -37 112 35 15 -37 37 22 113 2 37 -37 34 58 111 28 34 -37 42 38 114 11 43 -37 28 16
113 5 25 -36 46 43 16 23 17 28 256 -37 112 51 47 -36 47 57 113 19 7 -36 45 26 111 45 12 -36 53 31 114 28 11 -36 38 24
113 23 17 -35 56 50 16 23 21 28 255 -38 113 9 39 -35 58 9 113 36 59 -35 55 29 112 3 5 -36 4 2 114 46 7 -35 48 6
113 42 33 -35 6 30 16 23 26 27 255 -39 113 28 54 -35 7 53 113 56 17 -35 5 4 112 22 17 -35 14 8 115 5 33 -34 57 17
114 3 16 -34 15 41 16 23 31 27 254 -40 113 49 35 -34 17 9 114 17 2 -34 14 10 112 42 49 -34 23 47 115 26 33 -34 5 56
114 25 30 -33 24 19 16 23 36 26 253 -41 114 11 45 -33 25 52 114 39 19 -33 22 42 113 4 45 -33 32 56 115 49 11 -33 13 58
114 49 19 -32 32 20 16 23 41 26 253 -42 114 35 30 -32 34 0 115 3 14 -32 30 37 113 28 10 -32 41 32 116 13 34 -32 21 20
115 14 50 -31 39 42 16 23 45 25 252 -42 115 0 55 -31 41 28 115 28 51 -31 37 52 113 53 8 -31 49 33 116 39 48 -31 27 58
115 42 10 -30 46 19 16 23 50 24 252 -43 115 28 6 -30 48 13 115 56 19 -30 44 21 114 19 45 -30 56 53 117 8 2 -30 33 46
116 11 26 -29 52 6 16 23 55 24 251 -44 115 57 13 -29 54 9 116 25 45 -29 50 0 114 48 8 -30 3 28 117 38 26 -29 38 37
116 42 49 -28 56 57 16 24 0 23 251 -45 116 28 24 -28 59 10 116 57 21 -28 54 41 115 18 25 -29 9 14 118 11 12 -28 42 24
117 16 31 -28 0 45 16 24 5 22 250 -46 117 1 51 -28 3 9 117 31 19 -27 58 18 115 50 47 -28 14 4 118 46 36 -27 44 59
117 52 49 -27 3 21 16 24 10 21 249 -47 117 37 51 -27 5 57 118 7 55 -27 0 40 116 25 27 -27 17 50 119 24 57 -26 46 10
118 32 0 -26 4 33 16 24 14 20 249 -47 118 16 40 -26 7 24 118 47 30 -26 1 37 117 2 39 -26 20 24 120 6 42 -25 45 42
119 14 31 -25 4 8 16 24 19 19 248 -48 118 58 44 -25 7 17 119 30 29 -25 0 54 117 42 44 -25 21 35 120 52 22 -24 43 19
120 0 53 -24 1 48 16 24 24 18 248 -49 119 44 32 -24 5 18 120 17 26 -23 58 12 118 26 5 -24 21 9 121 42 44 -23 38 34
120 51 51 -22 57 10 16 24 29 17 247 -50 120 34 47 -23 1 5 121 9 9 -22 53 7 119 13 14 -23 18 48 122 38 49 -22 30 55
121 48 24 -21 49 40 16 24 34 16 247 -51 121 30 24 -21 54 7 122 6 40 -21 45 3 120 4 56 -22 14 10 123 42 10 -21 19 32
122 52 2 -20 38 31 16 24 38 15 246 -51 122 32 48 -20 43 41 123 11 38 -20 33 9 121 2 8 -21 6 41 124 55 17 -20 3 5
124 5 6 -19 22 28 16 24 43 13 245 -52 123 44 6 -19 28 36 124 26 36 -19 16 3 122 6 19 -19 55 36 126 22 31 -18 39 17
125 31 40 -17 59 22 16 24 48 11 245 -53 125 7 58 -18 6 59 125 56 10 -17 51 21 123 19 45 -18 39 43 128 13 16 -17 3 12
127 20 14 -16 24 47 16 24 53 9 244 -53 126 51 41 -16 34 58 127 50 17 -16 13 47 124 46 21 -17 16 56 130 57 48 -14 59 1
129 55 58 -14 25 31 16 24 58 6 243 -54 129 14 55 -14 42 18 130 42 36 -14 5 49 126 34 5 -15 43 6 ... .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2014 Oct 5.0
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