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Updated: 2014 OCT 27, 08:43 UT
Event Rank : 24
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 03 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (3396) Muazzez will occult a 9.1 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a narrow but quite uncertain path passing near Adelaide. The path then moves north-east into Queensland passing near Emerald and Mackay.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.9 mag to 16.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
133 15 39 -44 40 32 12 41 56 51 296 -24 133 0 5 -44 35 0 133 31 18 -44 46 3 131 33 44 -44 3 21 135 1 45 -45 16 50
133 55 13 -43 39 54 12 42 6 51 294 -25 133 39 52 -43 34 28 134 10 41 -43 45 19 132 14 34 -43 3 21 135 39 56 -44 15 35
134 34 44 -42 39 27 12 42 16 51 292 -26 134 19 33 -42 34 6 134 50 0 -42 44 47 132 55 14 -42 3 30 136 18 9 -43 14 31
135 14 13 -41 39 8 12 42 27 51 290 -27 134 59 12 -41 33 53 135 29 19 -41 44 23 133 35 49 -41 3 46 136 56 26 -42 13 37
135 53 45 -40 38 57 12 42 37 51 289 -28 135 38 54 -40 33 46 136 8 41 -40 44 5 134 16 21 -40 4 9 137 34 51 -41 12 50
136 33 22 -39 38 50 12 42 47 51 287 -29 136 18 40 -39 33 45 136 48 10 -39 43 54 134 56 55 -39 4 36 138 13 26 -40 12 9
137 13 9 -38 38 47 12 42 57 51 285 -30 136 58 35 -38 33 46 137 27 48 -38 43 45 135 37 34 -38 5 5 138 52 16 -39 11 32
137 53 8 -37 38 45 12 43 7 50 283 -31 137 38 41 -37 33 50 138 7 39 -37 43 39 136 18 20 -37 5 36 139 31 22 -38 10 58
138 33 22 -36 38 43 12 43 17 50 281 -33 138 19 2 -36 33 53 138 47 47 -36 43 32 136 59 18 -36 6 6 140 10 49 -37 10 24
139 13 55 -35 38 39 12 43 28 50 280 -34 138 59 41 -35 33 54 139 28 13 -35 43 24 137 40 31 -35 6 34 140 50 39 -36 9 48
139 54 50 -34 38 32 12 43 38 49 278 -35 139 40 42 -34 33 51 140 9 3 -34 43 12 138 22 2 -34 6 58 141 30 55 -35 9 8
140 36 11 -33 38 19 12 43 48 49 276 -36 140 22 8 -33 33 43 140 50 19 -33 42 54 139 3 55 -33 7 16 142 11 42 -34 8 23
141 18 1 -32 37 59 12 43 58 48 275 -37 141 4 2 -32 33 27 141 32 5 -32 42 29 139 46 13 -32 7 26 142 53 3 -33 7 31
142 0 25 -31 37 28 12 44 8 48 273 -38 141 46 29 -31 33 2 142 14 24 -31 41 54 140 29 0 -31 7 27 143 35 1 -32 6 29
142 43 25 -30 36 47 12 44 18 47 272 -40 142 29 33 -30 32 25 142 57 22 -30 41 7 141 12 20 -30 7 16 144 17 41 -31 5 15
143 27 8 -29 35 51 12 44 29 46 270 -41 143 13 18 -29 31 34 143 41 2 -29 40 7 141 56 18 -29 6 51 145 1 8 -30 3 47
144 11 36 -28 34 39 12 44 39 46 269 -42 143 57 48 -28 30 27 144 25 29 -28 38 50 142 40 58 -28 6 11 145 45 26 -29 2 2
144 56 56 -27 33 8 12 44 49 45 267 -43 144 43 9 -27 29 1 145 10 48 -27 37 14 143 26 24 -27 5 12 146 30 40 -27 59 58
145 43 13 -26 31 16 12 44 59 44 266 -45 145 29 25 -26 27 14 145 57 4 -26 35 17 144 12 42 -26 3 53 147 16 56 -26 57 31
146 30 32 -25 29 0 12 45 9 43 265 -46 146 16 44 -25 25 2 146 44 24 -25 32 55 144 59 58 -25 2 10 148 4 21 -25 54 39
147 19 1 -24 26 15 12 45 19 42 264 -47 147 5 11 -24 22 23 147 32 55 -24 30 6 145 48 18 -24 0 0 148 53 1 -24 51 18
148 8 46 -23 23 0 12 45 30 42 262 -48 147 54 54 -23 19 13 148 22 43 -23 26 45 146 37 49 -22 57 20 149 43 6 -23 47 25
148 59 57 -22 19 10 12 45 40 41 261 -50 148 46 2 -22 15 29 149 13 57 -22 22 49 147 28 38 -21 54 7 150 34 42 -22 42 54
149 52 42 -21 14 40 12 45 50 40 260 -51 149 38 42 -21 11 5 150 6 47 -21 18 13 148 20 54 -20 50 17 151 28 2 -21 37 42
150 47 13 -20 9 26 12 46 0 38 259 -52 150 33 7 -20 5 58 151 1 24 -20 12 53 149 14 48 -19 45 44 152 23 17 -20 31 43
151 43 42 -19 3 23 12 46 10 37 258 -54 151 29 28 -19 0 1 151 58 1 -19 6 42 150 10 31 -18 40 25 153 20 41 -19 24 51
152 42 23 -17 56 23 12 46 20 36 257 -55 152 28 0 -17 53 9 152 56 51 -17 59 35 151 8 15 -17 34 13 154 20 30 -18 16 58
153 43 34 -16 48 19 12 46 30 35 256 -56 153 29 0 -16 45 14 153 58 14 -16 51 23 152 8 16 -16 27 1 155 23 4 -17 7 57
154 47 36 -15 39 3 12 46 41 34 255 -58 154 32 48 -15 36 7 155 2 29 -15 41 58 153 10 53 -15 18 42 156 28 47 -15 57 37
155 54 53 -14 28 24 12 46 51 32 254 -59 155 39 48 -14 25 37 156 10 4 -14 31 9 154 16 27 -14 9 5 157 38 7 -14 45 46
157 5 57 -13 16 9 12 47 1 31 254 -61 156 50 32 -13 13 33 157 21 28 -13 18 42 155 25 25 -12 58 1 158 51 42 -13 32 9
158 21 26 -12 2 1 12 47 11 29 253 -62 158 5 37 -11 59 38 158 37 24 -12 4 20 156 38 21 -11 45 15 160 10 20 -12 16 25
159 42 14 -10 45 40 12 47 21 28 252 -64 159 25 53 -10 43 32 159 58 43 -10 47 43 157 55 56 -10 30 29 161 35 3 -10 58 10
161 9 26 - 9 26 37 12 47 31 26 251 -65 160 52 26 - 9 24 48 161 26 37 - 9 28 21 159 19 8 - 9 13 20 163 7 19 - 9 36 48
162 44 40 - 8 4 15 12 47 42 24 251 -67 162 26 48 - 8 2 49 163 2 45 - 8 5 35 160 49 11 - 7 53 19 164 49 14 - 8 11 30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2014 Oct 27.0
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