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Updated: 2014 OCT 05, 10:18 UT
Event Rank : 31
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 02 UT, the 22 km diameter asteroid (29769) 1999 CE28 will occult a 6.3 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a south-to-north path across Australia, through South Australia and Northern Territory passing east of Alice Springs.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 9.7 mag to 16.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
130 32 27 -38 25 22 13 31 46 62 288 -33 130 23 49 -38 23 27 130 41 6 -38 27 16 129 46 55 -38 15 8 131 18 28 -38 35 22
130 53 43 -37 11 51 13 32 1 62 285 -34 130 45 13 -37 9 58 131 2 14 -37 13 43 130 8 52 -37 1 47 131 39 1 -37 21 41
131 15 15 -35 58 27 13 32 17 62 283 -35 131 6 53 -35 56 36 131 23 39 -36 0 18 130 31 3 -35 48 33 131 59 54 -36 8 8
131 37 6 -34 45 10 13 32 32 62 280 -37 131 28 50 -34 43 20 131 45 23 -34 46 59 130 53 30 -34 35 24 132 21 8 -34 54 42
131 59 16 -33 31 56 13 32 48 61 277 -38 131 51 7 -33 30 8 132 7 27 -33 33 43 131 16 14 -33 22 20 132 42 44 -33 41 19
132 21 48 -32 18 43 13 33 3 61 275 -39 132 13 45 -32 16 57 132 29 52 -32 20 28 131 39 16 -32 9 16 133 4 44 -32 27 57
132 44 43 -31 5 29 13 33 18 61 272 -40 132 36 45 -31 3 44 132 52 42 -31 7 13 132 2 40 -30 56 10 133 27 10 -31 14 34
133 8 3 -29 52 11 13 33 34 61 270 -42 133 0 10 -29 50 28 133 15 57 -29 53 53 132 26 27 -29 43 1 133 50 3 -30 1 8
133 31 50 -28 38 47 13 33 49 60 268 -43 133 24 2 -28 37 5 133 39 39 -28 40 27 132 50 38 -28 29 45 134 13 25 -28 47 35
133 56 6 -27 25 14 13 34 5 60 265 -44 133 48 22 -27 23 34 134 3 51 -27 26 53 133 15 17 -27 16 21 134 37 18 -27 33 54
134 20 54 -26 11 30 13 34 20 59 263 -46 134 13 14 -26 9 52 134 28 35 -26 13 7 133 40 25 -26 2 45 135 1 45 -26 20 1
134 46 16 -24 57 32 13 34 35 58 261 -47 134 38 39 -24 55 56 134 53 53 -24 59 8 134 6 6 -24 48 56 135 26 47 -25 5 55
135 12 14 -23 43 17 13 34 51 58 259 -48 135 4 41 -23 41 43 135 19 48 -23 44 52 134 32 21 -23 34 50 135 52 28 -23 51 32
135 38 52 -22 28 43 13 35 6 57 257 -49 135 31 21 -22 27 10 135 46 23 -22 30 16 134 59 14 -22 20 24 136 18 51 -22 36 49
136 6 12 -21 13 47 13 35 22 56 255 -51 135 58 44 -21 12 15 136 13 40 -21 15 18 135 26 48 -21 5 36 136 45 57 -21 21 44
136 34 18 -19 58 25 13 35 37 56 253 -52 136 26 53 -19 56 55 136 41 44 -19 59 54 135 55 5 -19 50 23 137 13 52 -20 6 13
137 3 14 -18 42 34 13 35 53 55 252 -53 136 55 51 -18 41 6 137 10 39 -18 44 2 136 24 11 -18 34 41 137 42 38 -18 50 13
137 33 4 -17 26 11 13 36 8 54 250 -55 137 25 42 -17 24 44 137 40 27 -17 27 36 136 54 9 -17 18 27 138 12 21 -17 33 40
138 3 53 -16 9 11 13 36 23 53 249 -56 137 56 32 -16 7 46 138 11 15 -16 10 35 137 25 4 -16 1 37 138 43 3 -16 16 31
138 35 45 -14 51 30 13 36 39 52 247 -58 138 28 25 -14 50 8 138 43 6 -14 52 53 137 57 0 -14 44 6 139 14 52 -14 58 40
139 8 47 -13 33 5 13 36 54 51 246 -59 139 1 27 -13 31 44 139 16 7 -13 34 26 138 30 4 -13 25 51 139 47 52 -13 40 5
139 43 4 -12 13 50 13 37 10 50 245 -61 139 35 44 -12 12 31 139 50 25 -12 15 8 139 4 21 -12 6 47 140 22 10 -12 20 39
140 18 45 -10 53 40 13 37 25 48 243 -62 140 11 24 -10 52 23 140 26 6 -10 54 56 139 39 59 -10 46 47 140 57 53 -11 0 17
140 55 57 - 9 32 28 13 37 40 47 242 -64 140 48 35 - 9 31 14 141 3 19 - 9 33 42 140 17 6 - 9 25 48 141 35 11 - 9 38 52
141 34 50 - 8 10 8 13 37 56 46 241 -65 141 27 27 - 8 8 56 141 42 14 - 8 11 19 140 55 51 - 8 3 40 142 14 13 - 8 16 19
142 15 35 - 6 46 32 13 38 11 45 240 -67 142 8 10 - 6 45 23 142 23 1 - 6 47 41 141 36 25 - 6 40 19 142 55 10 - 6 52 29
142 58 25 - 5 21 32 13 38 27 43 240 -68 142 50 57 - 5 20 26 143 5 54 - 5 22 38 142 19 1 - 5 15 33 143 38 16 - 5 27 13
143 43 36 - 3 54 57 13 38 42 42 239 -70 143 36 4 - 3 53 54 143 51 9 - 3 56 0 143 3 53 - 3 49 15 144 23 47 - 4 0 21
144 31 25 - 2 26 36 13 38 58 40 238 -72 144 23 49 - 2 25 37 144 39 3 - 2 27 35 143 51 19 - 2 21 13 145 12 1 - 2 31 41
145 22 15 - 0 56 15 13 39 13 39 237 -73 145 14 33 - 0 55 19 145 29 58 - 0 57 10 144 41 40 - 0 51 12 146 3 21 - 1 0 58
146 16 32 0 36 23 13 39 28 37 237 -75 146 8 43 0 37 14 146 24 22 0 35 33 145 35 21 0 41 3 146 58 16 0 32 5
147 14 50 2 11 38 13 39 44 35 236 -77 147 6 53 2 12 24 147 22 48 2 10 53 146 32 55 2 15 51 147 57 21 2 7 49
148 17 51 3 49 56 13 39 59 34 236 -79 148 9 44 3 50 36 148 26 0 3 49 17 147 35 3 3 53 36 149 1 20 3 46 41
149 26 31 5 31 48 13 40 15 32 235 -81 149 18 11 5 32 21 149 34 54 5 31 17 148 42 35 5 34 51 150 11 13 5 29 15
150 42 5 7 17 58 13 40 30 30 235 -82 150 33 27 7 18 21 150 50 44 7 17 36 149 56 43 7 20 14 151 28 19 7 16 15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2014 Oct 5.0
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