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Updated: 2014 Sep 19, 12:25 UT
Event Rank : 15
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Oct 28 UT, the 17 km diameter asteroid (2355) Nei Monggol will occult a 6.4 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a large uncertainty path across New Zealand, centred over Westport and Cape Reinga and passing near Dunedin and Christchurch.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 9.9 mag to 16.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 109375 by 2355 Nei Monggol on 2014 Oct 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 36 15 -47 8 45 11 22 13 46 286 -29 171 27 9 -47 7 51 171 45 23 -47 9 38 170 6 28 -46 59 27 173 8 4 -47 17 8
171 35 45 -46 4 17 11 22 25 47 285 -30 171 26 50 -46 3 24 171 44 40 -46 5 10 170 7 52 -45 55 4 173 5 35 -46 12 37
171 36 41 -45 0 6 11 22 38 47 284 -31 171 27 58 -44 59 14 171 45 26 -45 0 59 170 10 35 -44 50 59 173 4 41 -45 8 23
171 39 0 -43 56 11 11 22 50 47 282 -32 171 30 26 -43 55 19 171 47 35 -43 57 3 170 14 32 -43 47 9 173 5 17 -44 4 23
171 42 35 -42 52 29 11 23 2 47 281 -33 171 34 11 -42 51 38 171 51 1 -42 53 20 170 19 39 -42 43 34 173 7 18 -43 0 36
171 47 23 -41 48 59 11 23 15 47 280 -34 171 39 8 -41 48 8 171 55 40 -41 49 50 170 25 52 -41 40 10 173 10 38 -41 57 0
171 53 21 -40 45 40 11 23 27 47 279 -35 171 45 13 -40 44 49 172 1 30 -40 46 29 170 33 8 -40 36 58 173 15 14 -40 53 34
172 0 25 -39 42 29 11 23 39 47 278 -36 171 52 25 -39 41 39 172 8 26 -39 43 18 170 41 26 -39 33 54 173 21 3 -39 50 17
172 8 34 -38 39 25 11 23 51 47 276 -37 172 0 40 -38 38 36 172 16 28 -38 40 13 170 50 42 -38 30 58 173 28 1 -38 47 5
172 17 44 -37 36 26 11 24 4 47 275 -38 172 9 57 -37 35 38 172 25 32 -37 37 14 171 0 55 -37 28 7 173 36 7 -37 43 59
172 27 55 -36 33 31 11 24 16 47 274 -39 172 20 14 -36 32 44 172 35 37 -36 34 18 171 12 5 -36 25 21 173 45 17 -36 40 57
172 39 5 -35 30 39 11 24 28 47 272 -40 172 31 29 -35 29 53 172 46 41 -35 31 25 171 24 8 -35 22 38 173 55 32 -35 37 55
172 51 13 -34 27 47 11 24 41 47 271 -41 172 43 43 -34 27 1 172 58 44 -34 28 32 171 37 6 -34 19 55 174 6 50 -34 34 54
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2014 Sep 19.0
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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