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Updated: 2014 Sep 19, 12:05 UT
Event Rank : 13
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Oct 19 UT, the 6 km diameter asteroid (3144) Brosche will occult a 6.9 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across the north of Northern Territory and central Western Australia, passing over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.2 mag to 15.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 3823 by 3144 Brosche on 2014 Oct 19
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
112 36 55 -37 0 0 16 55 51 34 334 -42 112 32 43 112 41 6 111 49 3 113 25 15
113 17 50 -36 0 0 16 55 33 35 333 -43 113 13 40 113 22 1 112 30 11 114 5 58
113 59 55 -35 0 0 16 55 15 35 332 -44 113 55 45 114 4 5 113 12 26 114 47 52
114 43 10 -34 0 0 16 54 56 36 331 -44 114 39 1 114 47 19 113 55 50 115 31 0
115 27 37 -33 0 0 16 54 37 37 330 -45 115 23 29 115 31 46 114 40 23 116 15 23
116 13 19 -32 0 0 16 54 18 37 329 -46 116 9 11 116 17 28 115 26 7 117 1 2
117 0 18 -31 0 0 16 53 57 38 327 -47 116 56 10 117 4 27 116 13 6 117 48 1
117 48 36 -30 0 0 16 53 37 38 326 -47 117 44 28 117 52 45 117 1 22 118 36 23
118 38 17 -29 0 0 16 53 16 39 325 -48 118 34 8 118 42 26 117 50 58 119 26 9
119 29 23 -28 0 0 16 52 55 39 324 -49 119 25 13 119 33 33 118 41 56 120 17 25
120 21 59 -27 0 0 16 52 33 40 322 -49 120 17 48 120 26 10 119 34 21 121 10 13
121 16 9 -26 0 0 16 52 10 40 321 -50 121 11 56 121 20 21 120 28 16 122 4 38
122 11 57 -25 0 0 16 51 47 40 320 -50 122 7 43 122 16 11 121 23 47 123 0 45
123 9 29 -24 0 0 16 51 24 40 318 -51 123 5 13 123 13 45 122 20 58 123 58 40
124 8 50 -23 0 0 16 51 0 41 317 -51 124 4 33 124 13 9 123 19 54 124 58 29
125 10 9 -22 0 0 16 50 36 41 315 -52 125 5 48 125 14 30 124 20 43 126 0 20
126 13 32 -21 0 0 16 50 12 41 314 -52 126 9 8 126 17 56 125 23 32 127 4 19
127 19 8 -20 0 0 16 49 46 41 312 -52 127 14 41 127 23 36 126 28 28 128 10 38
128 27 8 -19 0 0 16 49 21 41 311 -52 128 22 36 128 31 39 127 35 42 129 19 27
129 37 42 -18 0 0 16 48 54 41 309 -52 129 33 6 129 42 19 128 45 24 130 30 58
130 51 5 -17 0 0 16 48 28 40 308 -52 130 46 24 130 55 47 129 57 47 131 45 26
132 7 33 -16 0 0 16 48 0 40 306 -52 132 2 45 132 12 21 131 13 6 133 3 8
133 27 23 -15 0 0 16 47 32 40 305 -52 133 22 29 133 32 19 132 31 37 134 24 26
134 51 0 -14 0 0 16 47 4 39 303 -51 134 45 57 134 56 4 133 53 41 135 49 43
136 18 50 -13 0 0 16 46 34 39 301 -51 136 13 37 136 24 4 135 19 43 137 19 30
137 51 26 -12 0 0 16 46 4 38 300 -50 137 46 2 137 56 52 136 50 13 138 54 27
139 29 33 -11 0 0 16 45 33 37 298 -50 139 23 54 139 35 12 138 25 49 140 35 20
141 14 3 -10 0 0 16 45 2 36 297 -49 141 8 8 141 19 59 140 7 18 142 23 14
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2014 Sep 19.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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