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Updated: 2014 Sep 19, 11:54 UT
Event Rank : 84
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Oct 14 UT, the 56 km diameter asteroid (480) Hansa will occult a 8.6 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across northern Queensland and South Australia, passing over Cairns, Cloncurry, Mount Isa and Ceduna.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.5 mag to 12.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1746-00623-1 by 480 Hansa on 2014 Oct 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
130 52 54 -37 0 0 16 55 24 19 331 -38 130 10 18 131 36 17 129 18 28 132 31 13
131 10 32 -36 0 0 16 55 18 19 330 -38 130 28 11 131 53 40 129 36 39 132 48 18
131 30 31 -35 0 0 16 55 12 20 330 -39 130 48 20 132 13 28 129 57 1 133 7 52
131 52 48 -34 0 0 16 55 5 21 329 -40 131 10 44 132 35 39 130 19 35 133 29 55
132 17 25 -33 0 0 16 54 58 22 329 -40 131 35 24 133 0 13 130 44 19 133 54 27
132 44 21 -32 0 0 16 54 51 22 328 -41 132 2 20 133 27 11 131 11 15 134 21 28
133 13 40 -31 0 0 16 54 43 23 328 -41 132 31 33 133 56 35 131 40 24 134 51 2
133 45 23 -30 0 0 16 54 35 23 327 -42 133 3 7 134 28 29 132 11 47 135 23 10
134 19 34 -29 0 0 16 54 27 24 326 -42 133 37 4 135 2 55 132 45 29 135 57 58
134 56 17 -28 0 0 16 54 18 25 326 -42 134 13 29 135 39 59 133 21 34 136 35 31
135 35 39 -27 0 0 16 54 10 25 325 -43 134 52 27 136 19 48 134 0 5 137 15 56
136 17 47 -26 0 0 16 54 0 26 324 -43 135 34 5 137 2 29 134 41 10 137 59 23
137 2 51 -25 0 0 16 53 51 26 323 -43 136 18 32 137 48 12 135 24 56 138 46 1
137 51 0 -24 0 0 16 53 41 26 322 -43 137 5 57 138 37 9 136 11 31 139 36 5
138 42 29 -23 0 0 16 53 31 27 321 -43 137 56 33 139 29 36 137 1 8 140 29 52
139 37 34 -22 0 0 16 53 20 27 320 -43 138 50 35 140 25 51 137 54 0 141 27 43
140 36 36 -21 0 0 16 53 9 27 319 -43 139 48 22 141 26 16 138 50 23 142 30 4
141 40 0 -20 0 0 16 52 57 27 318 -43 140 50 16 142 31 20 139 50 37 143 37 30
142 48 19 -19 0 0 16 52 45 27 317 -42 141 56 47 143 41 42 140 55 8 144 50 45
144 2 16 -18 0 0 16 52 32 27 316 -42 143 8 31 144 58 9 142 4 26 146 10 48
145 22 47 -17 0 0 16 52 19 27 315 -41 144 26 17 146 21 48 143 19 15 147 39 3
146 51 10 -16 0 0 16 52 5 27 314 -41 145 51 11 147 54 14 144 40 26 149 17 33
148 29 16 -15 0 0 16 51 50 26 312 -40 147 24 44 149 37 45 146 9 14 151 9 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2014 Sep 19.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Reporting Details]
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