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Updated: 2014 AUG 03, 02:33 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Sep 30 UT, the 116 km diameter asteroid (105) Artemis will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across eastern Western Australia, from Wyndham to Esperence.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.7 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 39 47 - 8 45 34 11 7 32 67 64 -27 129 13 27 - 8 46 26 128 6 0 - 8 44 43 129 35 36 - 8 47 1 127 43 37 - 8 44 9
128 27 47 -10 9 15 11 7 46 66 62 -27 129 1 37 -10 10 7 127 53 50 -10 8 24 129 23 52 -10 10 42 127 31 22 -10 7 50
128 14 54 -11 33 22 11 7 59 65 59 -26 128 48 55 -11 34 14 127 40 46 -11 32 30 129 11 17 -11 34 49 127 18 10 -11 31 56
128 1 5 -12 57 57 11 8 13 65 57 -26 128 35 18 -12 58 49 127 26 44 -12 57 5 128 57 49 -12 59 24 127 4 0 -12 56 31
127 46 17 -14 23 5 11 8 27 64 55 -26 128 20 44 -14 23 57 127 11 41 -14 22 13 128 43 25 -14 24 32 126 48 47 -14 21 39
127 30 25 -15 48 49 11 8 41 63 53 -25 128 5 9 -15 49 41 126 55 33 -15 47 57 128 28 0 -15 50 16 126 32 28 -15 47 23
127 13 26 -17 15 13 11 8 54 61 51 -25 127 48 28 -17 16 6 126 38 16 -17 14 21 128 11 31 -17 16 41 126 14 59 -17 13 47
126 55 15 -18 42 22 11 9 8 60 49 -24 127 30 37 -18 43 15 126 19 45 -18 41 29 127 53 53 -18 43 50 125 56 14 -18 40 55
126 35 46 -20 10 19 11 9 22 59 48 -24 127 11 31 -20 11 13 125 59 53 -20 9 27 127 35 1 -20 11 48 125 36 7 -20 8 53
126 14 53 -21 39 11 11 9 36 58 46 -23 126 51 2 -21 40 5 125 38 34 -21 38 19 127 14 49 -21 40 41 125 14 31 -21 37 44
125 52 27 -23 9 3 11 9 49 57 45 -22 126 29 4 -23 9 57 125 15 40 -23 8 10 126 53 9 -23 10 33 124 51 19 -23 7 35
125 28 20 -24 40 0 11 10 3 55 44 -22 126 5 27 -24 40 54 124 51 2 -24 39 7 126 29 52 -24 41 30 124 26 20 -24 38 32
125 2 21 -26 12 8 11 10 17 54 43 -21 125 40 2 -26 13 3 124 24 29 -26 11 15 126 4 49 -26 13 39 123 59 24 -26 10 40
124 34 18 -27 45 36 11 10 31 53 42 -20 125 12 37 -27 46 30 123 55 48 -27 44 42 125 37 48 -27 47 7 123 30 18 -27 44 7
124 3 57 -29 20 30 11 10 44 51 41 -19 124 42 57 -29 21 25 123 24 45 -29 19 36 125 8 36 -29 22 1 122 58 46 -29 19 1
123 30 59 -30 56 59 11 10 58 50 41 -19 124 10 46 -30 57 55 122 51 0 -30 56 5 124 36 55 -30 58 32 122 24 30 -30 55 30
122 55 5 -32 35 14 11 11 12 48 40 -18 123 35 44 -32 36 10 122 14 13 -32 34 20 124 2 26 -32 36 47 121 47 8 -32 33 44
122 15 49 -34 15 26 11 11 26 47 40 -17 122 57 25 -34 16 22 121 33 58 -34 14 31 123 24 45 -34 16 59 121 6 12 -34 13 55
121 32 39 -35 57 47 11 11 39 45 40 -16 122 15 21 -35 58 43 120 49 41 -35 56 52 122 43 23 -35 59 21 120 21 11 -35 56 16
120 44 56 -37 42 32 11 11 53 43 39 -15 121 28 52 -37 43 28 120 0 43 -37 41 36 121 57 43 -37 44 6 119 31 22 -37 41 1
119 51 53 -39 29 58 11 12 7 41 39 -14 120 37 14 -39 30 55 119 6 13 -39 29 3 121 7 0 -39 31 33 118 35 54 -39 28 27
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 1.0
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