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Updated: 2014 JUL 08, 18:38 UT
Event Rank : 58
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Aug 15 UT, the 80 km diameter asteroid (693) Zerbinetta will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path passing near Invercargill in New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.7 mag to 14.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
178 31 53 -58 24 29 11 30 49 53 275 -45 177 45 55 -58 33 0 179 17 45 -58 15 42 176 7 12 -58 50 22 -179 4 28 -57 56 1
177 13 24 -57 15 56 11 31 8 54 275 -46 176 28 44 -57 24 2 177 57 59 -57 7 35 174 52 54 -57 40 31 179 33 7 -56 48 52
176 1 42 -56 6 50 11 31 26 55 274 -47 175 18 17 -56 14 33 176 45 3 -55 58 52 173 45 11 -56 30 14 178 17 39 -55 41 1
174 56 4 -54 57 16 11 31 44 55 274 -48 174 13 50 -55 4 38 175 38 16 -54 49 40 172 43 19 -55 19 37 177 8 27 -54 32 35
173 55 54 -53 47 18 11 32 2 56 273 -49 173 14 46 -53 54 21 174 37 0 -53 40 1 171 46 43 -54 8 42 176 4 52 -53 23 39
173 0 38 -52 36 59 11 32 21 56 272 -50 172 20 34 -52 43 46 173 40 42 -52 30 0 170 54 48 -52 57 32 175 6 23 -52 14 16
172 9 49 -51 26 22 11 32 39 57 270 -50 171 30 44 -51 32 54 172 48 53 -51 19 38 170 7 9 -51 46 8 174 12 31 -51 4 29
171 23 0 -50 15 28 11 32 57 57 269 -51 170 44 52 -50 21 46 172 1 9 -50 8 58 169 23 19 -50 34 32 173 22 50 -49 54 21
170 39 51 -49 4 19 11 33 15 58 268 -52 170 2 36 -49 10 24 171 17 8 -48 58 2 168 42 58 -49 22 45 172 36 58 -48 43 52
170 0 2 -47 52 55 11 33 33 58 266 -53 169 23 37 -47 58 49 170 36 29 -47 46 49 168 5 47 -48 10 47 171 54 35 -47 33 5
169 23 17 -46 41 16 11 33 52 58 265 -54 168 47 39 -46 47 0 169 58 57 -46 35 20 167 31 30 -46 58 38 171 15 24 -46 21 59
168 49 19 -45 29 23 11 34 10 59 263 -55 168 14 25 -45 34 58 169 24 15 -45 23 36 166 59 53 -45 46 17 170 39 10 -45 10 36
168 17 57 -44 17 15 11 34 28 59 261 -56 167 43 45 -44 22 42 168 52 12 -44 11 37 166 30 42 -44 33 45 170 5 38 -43 58 55
167 48 58 -43 4 52 11 34 46 59 260 -56 167 15 25 -43 10 12 168 22 34 -42 59 21 166 3 47 -43 21 0 169 34 38 -42 46 55
167 22 12 -41 52 13 11 35 5 59 258 -57 166 49 16 -41 57 26 167 55 12 -41 46 48 165 38 58 -42 8 1 169 5 58 -41 34 37
166 57 31 -40 39 17 11 35 23 59 256 -58 166 25 10 -40 44 25 167 29 56 -40 33 58 165 16 6 -40 54 49 168 39 29 -40 22 0
166 34 46 -39 26 3 11 35 41 59 254 -59 166 2 57 -39 31 6 167 6 38 -39 20 49 164 55 4 -39 41 20 168 15 3 -39 9 2
166 13 50 -38 12 29 11 35 59 59 252 -60 165 42 31 -38 17 28 166 45 11 -38 7 20 164 35 45 -38 27 34 167 52 32 -37 55 42
165 54 36 -36 58 35 11 36 17 58 250 -60 165 23 47 -37 3 30 166 25 30 -36 53 29 164 18 2 -37 13 29 167 31 49 -36 41 59
165 37 0 -35 44 18 11 36 36 58 248 -61 165 6 38 -35 49 11 166 7 27 -35 39 15 164 1 51 -35 59 3 167 12 49 -35 27 52
Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jul 9.0
Use these links for further information:
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