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Updated: 2014 JUL 08, 18:34 UT
Event Rank : 48
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Aug 14 UT, the 85 km diameter asteroid (362) Havnia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across New Zealand passing near Invercargill, Christchurch and Auckland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.4 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 29.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
174 18 7 -31 0 0 6 49 43 67 106 -12 174 47 25 173 48 42 176 5 23 172 29 16
174 6 29 -32 0 0 6 49 3 67 103 -12 174 36 12 173 36 40 175 55 13 172 16 5
173 53 47 -33 0 0 6 48 23 67 101 -12 174 23 55 173 23 31 175 44 4 172 1 44
173 39 56 -34 0 0 6 47 43 66 99 -12 174 10 32 173 9 12 175 31 52 171 46 8
173 24 52 -35 0 0 6 47 3 66 97 -11 173 55 57 172 53 39 175 18 34 171 29 13
173 8 32 -36 0 0 6 46 22 66 95 -11 173 40 8 172 36 47 175 4 5 171 10 54
172 50 49 -37 0 0 6 45 41 66 93 -11 173 22 58 172 18 30 174 48 21 170 51 4
172 31 38 -38 0 0 6 45 1 65 91 -11 173 4 22 171 58 44 174 31 18 170 29 38
172 10 54 -39 0 0 6 44 20 65 89 -11 172 44 16 171 37 22 174 12 49 170 6 30
171 48 30 -40 0 0 6 43 39 64 87 -10 172 22 32 171 14 16 173 52 49 169 41 31
171 24 18 -41 0 0 6 42 58 64 86 -10 171 59 3 170 49 21 173 31 12 169 14 33
170 58 11 -42 0 0 6 42 17 63 84 -10 171 33 42 170 22 26 173 7 50 168 45 27
170 29 59 -43 0 0 6 41 36 63 83 -9 171 6 19 169 53 23 172 42 36 168 14 2
169 59 32 -44 0 0 6 40 54 62 81 -9 170 36 46 169 22 2 172 15 20 167 40 8
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
168 0 0 -47 18 53 6 38 37 60 78 -8 -48 18 2 -46 18 3 -50 49 21 -43 25 24
167 0 0 -48 42 2 6 37 39 59 77 -8 -49 37 25 -47 45 18 -51 59 51 -45 5 31
166 0 0 -49 56 47 6 36 46 58 76 -7 -50 49 0 -49 3 26 -53 3 55 -46 34 5
165 0 0 -51 4 30 6 35 58 57 76 -7 -51 54 2 -50 14 0 -54 2 30 -47 53 20
164 0 0 -52 6 15 6 35 14 56 75 -6 -52 53 29 -51 18 12 -54 56 18 -49 4 53
163 0 0 -53 2 52 6 34 34 55 75 -6 -53 48 4 -52 16 56 -55 45 57 -50 9 56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 40 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jul 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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