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Updated: 2014 JUN 22, 00:36 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Aug 09 UT, the 135 km diameter asteroid (489) Comacina will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a north-to-south path across New Zealand passing close to almost all locations.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 13.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
-169 48 14 -29 46 27 17 58 56 16 276 -1 -167 19 45 -30 12 29 -171 57 48 -29 19 38 -164 9 51 -30 38 38 -174 0 27 -28 50 37
-170 55 20 -30 18 38 17 59 3 17 277 -2 -168 34 22 -30 45 13 -172 59 51 -29 51 23 -165 38 10 -31 12 14 -174 58 39 -29 22 0
-171 58 42 -30 50 45 17 59 10 18 278 -3 -169 43 48 -31 17 49 -173 59 0 -30 23 6 -166 58 1 -31 45 33 -175 54 31 -29 53 23
-172 58 52 -31 22 50 17 59 16 19 278 -4 -170 48 59 -31 50 21 -174 55 36 -30 54 50 -168 11 24 -32 18 42 -176 48 18 -30 24 47
-173 56 17 -31 54 56 17 59 23 19 279 -4 -171 50 34 -32 22 50 -175 49 58 -31 26 35 -169 19 36 -32 51 44 -177 40 13 -30 56 14
-174 51 14 -32 27 3 17 59 30 20 280 -5 -172 49 4 -32 55 20 -176 42 19 -31 58 23 -170 23 33 -33 24 42 -178 30 27 -31 27 43
-175 44 2 -32 59 12 17 59 37 21 280 -6 -173 44 53 -33 27 50 -177 32 51 -32 30 14 -171 23 53 -33 57 40 -179 19 9 -31 59 16
-176 34 53 -33 31 25 17 59 44 21 281 -7 -174 38 18 -34 0 23 -178 21 45 -33 2 9 -172 21 8 -34 30 38 179 53 35 -32 30 54
-177 23 59 -34 3 42 17 59 51 22 282 -8 -175 29 37 -34 33 0 -179 9 9 -33 34 8 -173 15 41 -35 3 39 179 7 36 -33 2 36
-178 11 28 -34 36 4 17 59 58 22 282 -8 -176 19 1 -35 5 41 -179 55 10 -34 6 13 -174 7 50 -35 36 43 178 22 48 -33 34 24
-178 57 29 -35 8 32 18 0 5 23 283 -9 -177 6 40 -35 38 27 179 20 6 -34 38 24 -174 57 51 -36 9 51 177 39 8 -34 6 18
-179 42 9 -35 41 6 18 0 12 23 284 -10 -177 52 45 -36 11 20 178 36 32 -35 10 41 -175 45 56 -36 43 5 176 56 30 -34 38 19
179 34 28 -36 13 47 18 0 19 23 284 -11 -178 37 21 -36 44 20 177 54 5 -35 43 6 -176 32 15 -37 16 26 176 14 51 -35 10 26
178 52 14 -36 46 37 18 0 26 24 285 -11 -179 20 36 -37 17 27 177 12 40 -36 15 38 -177 16 58 -37 49 54 175 34 6 -35 42 42
178 11 7 -37 19 34 18 0 33 24 286 -12 179 57 25 -37 50 42 176 32 12 -36 48 19 -178 0 10 -38 23 30 174 54 12 -36 15 6
177 31 1 -37 52 41 18 0 40 25 287 -12 179 16 36 -38 24 7 175 52 40 -37 21 8 -178 41 59 -38 57 15 174 15 8 -36 47 38
176 51 54 -38 25 57 18 0 47 25 287 -13 178 36 55 -38 57 41 175 13 59 -37 54 7 -179 22 30 -39 31 10 173 36 49 -37 20 20
176 13 42 -38 59 23 18 0 54 25 288 -14 177 58 16 -39 31 26 174 36 8 -38 27 16 179 58 13 -40 5 15 172 59 14 -37 53 11
175 36 24 -39 33 0 18 1 1 25 289 -14 177 20 38 -40 5 21 173 59 4 -39 0 35 179 20 5 -40 39 32 172 22 21 -38 26 12
174 59 55 -40 6 48 18 1 8 26 289 -15 176 43 57 -40 39 28 173 22 44 -39 34 6 178 43 4 -41 14 0 171 46 8 -38 59 25
174 24 15 -40 40 49 18 1 15 26 290 -15 176 8 10 -41 13 48 172 47 8 -40 7 48 178 7 6 -41 48 40 171 10 34 -39 32 48
173 49 22 -41 15 1 18 1 21 26 291 -16 175 33 17 -41 48 20 172 12 12 -40 41 42 177 32 9 -42 23 34 170 35 35 -40 6 24
173 15 13 -41 49 27 18 1 28 26 291 -16 174 59 15 -42 23 6 171 37 57 -41 15 49 176 58 11 -42 58 42 170 1 13 -40 40 11
172 41 48 -42 24 7 18 1 35 26 292 -17 174 26 2 -42 58 6 171 4 20 -41 50 9 176 25 11 -43 34 5 169 27 24 -41 14 12
172 9 6 -42 59 2 18 1 42 26 293 -17 173 53 37 -43 33 21 170 31 21 -42 24 44 175 53 6 -44 9 43 168 54 8 -41 48 26
171 37 5 -43 34 11 18 1 49 27 293 -17 173 22 0 -44 8 52 169 58 58 -42 59 33 175 21 57 -44 45 37 168 21 25 -42 22 55
171 5 45 -44 9 37 18 1 56 27 294 -18 172 51 10 -44 44 39 169 27 11 -43 34 38 174 51 41 -45 21 48 167 49 13 -42 57 38
170 35 5 -44 45 19 18 2 3 27 295 -18 172 21 5 -45 20 44 168 56 0 -44 9 58 174 22 20 -45 58 17 167 17 31 -43 32 36
170 5 4 -45 21 19 18 2 10 27 295 -19 171 51 47 -45 57 7 168 25 22 -44 45 36 173 53 52 -46 35 6 166 46 19 -44 7 51
169 35 43 -45 57 37 18 2 17 27 296 -19 171 23 14 -46 33 48 167 55 19 -45 21 31 173 26 17 -47 12 13 166 15 37 -44 43 23
169 7 1 -46 34 14 18 2 24 27 297 -19 170 55 27 -47 10 50 167 25 50 -45 57 44 172 59 37 -47 49 42 165 45 24 -45 19 12
168 38 59 -47 11 11 18 2 31 27 297 -20 170 28 26 -47 48 13 166 56 55 -46 34 17 172 33 52 -48 27 32 165 15 39 -45 55 20
168 11 37 -47 48 29 18 2 38 27 298 -20 170 2 12 -48 25 57 166 28 33 -47 11 10 172 9 3 -49 5 46 164 46 24 -46 31 47
167 44 55 -48 26 10 18 2 45 27 299 -20 169 36 46 -49 4 5 166 0 46 -47 48 24 171 45 12 -49 44 23 164 17 37 -47 8 34
167 18 55 -49 4 13 18 2 52 27 299 -20 169 12 9 -49 42 36 165 33 34 -48 26 0 171 22 20 -50 23 25 163 49 19 -47 45 42
166 53 37 -49 42 41 18 2 59 27 300 -21 168 48 23 -50 21 33 165 6 57 -49 3 59 171 0 29 -51 2 54 163 21 30 -48 23 13
166 29 2 -50 21 34 18 3 6 26 301 -21 168 25 30 -51 0 57 164 40 55 -49 42 23 170 39 44 -51 42 51 162 54 11 -49 1 6
166 5 12 -51 0 54 18 3 13 26 301 -21 168 3 31 -51 40 48 164 15 31 -50 21 12 170 20 6 -52 23 18 162 27 22 -49 39 24
165 42 9 -51 40 41 18 3 20 26 302 -21 167 42 30 -52 21 9 163 50 46 -51 0 28 170 1 39 -53 4 15 162 1 3 -50 18 8
165 19 56 -52 20 59 18 3 27 26 303 -22 167 22 30 -53 2 1 163 26 40 -51 40 12 169 44 29 -53 45 45 161 35 17 -50 57 18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jun 22.0
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