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Updated: 2014 May 20, 23:33 UT
Event Rank : 13
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jul 08 UT, the 16 km diameter asteroid (2904) Millman will occult a 8.1 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a path across Northern Territory, western South Australia and south-eastern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.7 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 112176 by 2904 Millman on 2014 Jul 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
133 34 35 - 9 49 53 16 2 51 48 122 -72 133 40 5 - 9 51 7 133 29 4 - 9 48 40 134 38 10 -10 3 47 132 30 9 - 9 35 13
133 30 14 -11 3 2 16 3 7 49 120 -73 133 35 45 -11 4 15 133 24 43 -11 1 49 134 33 52 -11 16 48 132 25 47 -10 48 31
133 24 42 -12 15 30 16 3 22 49 119 -74 133 30 13 -12 16 42 133 19 11 -12 14 17 134 28 24 -12 29 9 132 20 11 -12 1 5
133 17 59 -13 27 19 16 3 37 50 118 -75 133 23 30 -13 28 31 133 12 27 -13 26 7 134 21 49 -13 40 53 132 13 22 -13 12 59
133 10 6 -14 38 32 16 3 53 50 117 -75 133 15 38 -14 39 44 133 4 33 -14 37 20 134 14 6 -14 52 3 132 5 19 -14 24 17
133 1 2 -15 49 12 16 4 8 51 115 -76 133 6 35 -15 50 23 132 55 28 -15 48 1 134 5 15 -16 2 40 131 56 4 -15 35 0
132 50 48 -16 59 21 16 4 23 51 114 -77 132 56 23 -17 0 33 132 45 13 -16 58 10 133 55 16 -17 12 48 131 45 35 -16 45 11
132 39 23 -18 9 2 16 4 39 51 113 -77 132 44 59 -18 10 13 132 33 46 -18 7 50 133 44 9 -18 22 28 131 33 53 -17 54 52
132 26 46 -19 18 15 16 4 54 52 111 -78 132 32 24 -19 19 27 132 21 8 -19 17 4 133 31 52 -19 31 43 131 20 56 -19 4 5
132 12 55 -20 27 4 16 5 9 52 110 -78 132 18 35 -20 28 15 132 7 15 -20 25 52 133 18 24 -20 40 33 131 6 44 -20 12 51
131 57 50 -21 35 29 16 5 25 52 109 -79 132 3 32 -21 36 41 131 52 8 -21 34 17 133 3 44 -21 49 1 130 51 14 -21 21 14
131 41 28 -22 43 32 16 5 40 52 107 -79 131 47 13 -22 44 44 131 35 44 -22 42 20 132 47 50 -22 57 8 130 34 25 -22 29 13
131 23 48 -23 51 16 16 5 56 52 106 -79 131 29 35 -23 52 28 131 18 1 -23 50 3 132 30 40 -24 4 57 130 16 14 -23 36 51
131 4 46 -24 58 40 16 6 11 53 104 -79 131 10 35 -24 59 53 130 58 56 -24 57 26 132 12 11 -25 12 27 129 56 39 -24 44 8
130 44 19 -26 5 46 16 6 26 53 103 -79 130 50 12 -26 6 59 130 38 26 -26 4 32 131 52 20 -26 19 41 129 35 37 -25 51 7
130 22 25 -27 12 35 16 6 42 53 102 -79 130 28 21 -27 13 50 130 16 28 -27 11 21 131 31 4 -27 26 39 129 13 5 -26 57 48
129 58 59 -28 19 9 16 6 57 52 100 -79 130 4 58 -28 20 24 129 52 59 -28 17 54 131 8 19 -28 33 22 128 48 58 -28 4 11
129 33 57 -29 25 28 16 7 12 52 99 -78 129 40 0 -29 26 44 129 27 53 -29 24 12 130 44 1 -29 39 52 128 23 12 -29 10 19
129 7 14 -30 31 33 16 7 28 52 98 -78 129 13 21 -30 32 50 129 1 6 -30 30 16 130 18 6 -30 46 9 127 55 42 -30 16 11
128 38 45 -31 37 25 16 7 43 52 96 -78 128 44 57 -31 38 43 128 32 33 -31 36 6 129 50 27 -31 52 15 127 26 23 -31 21 48
128 8 25 -32 43 3 16 7 58 52 95 -77 128 14 41 -32 44 23 128 2 8 -32 41 43 129 21 0 -32 58 8 126 55 9 -32 27 11
127 36 5 -33 48 29 16 8 14 51 94 -76 127 42 27 -33 49 50 127 29 44 -33 47 7 128 49 38 -34 3 51 126 21 53 -33 32 19
127 1 40 -34 53 43 16 8 29 51 93 -76 127 8 7 -34 55 5 126 55 13 -34 52 19 128 16 13 -35 9 23 125 46 27 -34 37 13
126 25 1 -35 58 44 16 8 45 51 92 -75 126 31 33 -36 0 8 126 18 28 -35 57 19 127 40 38 -36 14 44 125 8 43 -35 41 53
125 45 58 -37 3 32 16 9 0 50 91 -74 125 52 36 -37 4 59 125 39 20 -37 2 5 127 2 44 -37 19 55 124 28 33 -36 46 18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 1.0
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