|
|
Updated: 2014 MAR 29, 20:40 UT
Event Rank : 11
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 May 17 UT, the 21 km diameter asteroid (3846) Hazel will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow but quite uncertain path beginning near Coffs Harbour. The path move north-west into Queensland, passing near Emerald.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.7 mag to 17.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
166 50 21 -50 7 21 14 39 4 49 37 -52 166 40 55 -50 11 20 166 59 45 -50 3 21 164 40 35 -51 0 38 168 53 10 -49 13 41
166 4 16 -48 58 36 14 39 27 49 39 -53 165 55 1 -49 2 31 166 13 28 -48 54 41 163 57 16 -49 50 52 168 4 42 -48 5 57
165 18 43 -47 50 39 14 39 51 50 41 -55 165 9 39 -47 54 30 165 27 45 -47 46 48 163 14 16 -48 41 57 167 16 57 -46 58 57
164 33 37 -46 43 27 14 40 14 50 43 -56 164 24 43 -46 47 14 164 42 29 -46 39 41 162 31 33 -47 33 51 166 29 48 -45 52 39
163 48 55 -45 36 57 14 40 37 51 44 -57 163 40 10 -45 40 40 163 57 37 -45 33 14 161 49 2 -46 26 29 165 43 10 -44 46 59
163 4 31 -44 31 5 14 41 0 51 46 -58 162 55 54 -44 34 44 163 13 5 -44 27 26 161 6 40 -45 19 48 164 56 59 -43 41 56
162 20 22 -43 25 49 14 41 23 52 48 -59 162 11 54 -43 29 24 162 28 48 -43 22 13 160 24 25 -44 13 45 164 11 11 -42 37 25
161 36 25 -42 21 5 14 41 46 52 50 -60 161 28 4 -42 24 38 161 44 44 -42 17 33 159 42 13 -43 8 17 163 25 40 -41 33 25
160 52 36 -41 16 52 14 42 9 52 52 -61 160 44 22 -41 20 21 161 0 48 -41 13 23 159 0 3 -42 3 21 162 40 25 -40 29 53
160 8 53 -40 13 7 14 42 32 53 54 -62 160 0 45 -40 16 33 160 16 58 -40 9 40 158 17 51 -40 58 55 161 55 20 -39 26 48
159 25 12 -39 9 47 14 42 55 53 56 -63 159 17 10 -39 13 11 159 33 12 -39 6 24 157 35 35 -39 54 57 161 10 24 -38 24 6
158 41 31 -38 6 51 14 43 18 53 57 -64 158 33 35 -38 10 12 158 49 25 -38 3 30 156 53 13 -38 51 24 160 25 32 -37 21 46
157 57 47 -37 4 17 14 43 41 53 59 -65 157 49 57 -37 7 35 158 5 36 -37 0 59 156 10 43 -37 48 14 159 40 43 -36 19 47
157 13 58 -36 2 2 14 44 4 53 61 -66 157 6 12 -36 5 17 157 21 42 -35 58 46 155 28 2 -36 45 25 158 55 53 -35 18 5
156 30 1 -35 0 5 14 44 27 53 63 -67 156 22 20 -35 3 18 156 37 41 -34 56 51 154 45 8 -35 42 55 158 10 59 -34 16 40
155 45 53 -33 58 23 14 44 50 53 65 -68 155 38 16 -34 1 34 155 53 29 -33 55 12 154 1 59 -34 40 42 157 25 58 -33 15 30
155 1 33 -32 56 56 14 45 13 53 67 -69 154 54 0 -33 0 4 155 9 5 -32 53 47 153 18 32 -33 38 44 156 40 49 -32 14 32
154 16 57 -31 55 41 14 45 36 53 69 -70 154 9 27 -31 58 47 154 24 25 -31 52 34 152 34 45 -32 36 59 155 55 29 -31 13 46
153 32 3 -30 54 36 14 45 59 53 71 -72 153 24 36 -30 57 41 153 39 28 -30 51 32 151 50 36 -31 35 26 155 9 54 -30 13 10
152 46 48 -29 53 41 14 46 23 53 73 -73 152 39 25 -29 56 43 152 54 11 -29 50 39 151 6 2 -30 34 2 154 24 2 -29 12 42
152 1 11 -28 52 53 14 46 46 52 74 -74 151 53 50 -28 55 53 152 8 31 -28 49 53 150 21 1 -29 32 47 153 37 51 -28 12 21
151 15 7 -27 52 11 14 47 9 52 76 -75 151 7 48 -27 55 9 151 22 25 -27 49 12 149 35 30 -28 31 38 152 51 17 -27 12 4
150 28 35 -26 51 32 14 47 32 52 78 -76 150 21 18 -26 54 28 150 35 50 -26 48 36 148 49 26 -27 30 33 152 4 18 -26 11 51
149 41 30 -25 50 56 14 47 55 51 80 -77 149 34 15 -25 53 50 149 48 44 -25 48 2 148 2 46 -26 29 31 151 16 51 -25 11 40
148 53 51 -24 50 21 14 48 18 51 81 -78 148 46 38 -24 53 13 149 1 4 -24 47 28 147 15 28 -25 28 31 150 28 53 -24 11 28
148 5 34 -23 49 44 14 48 41 50 83 -79 147 58 22 -23 52 35 148 12 45 -23 46 54 146 27 27 -24 27 29 149 40 20 -23 11 16
147 16 35 -22 49 5 14 49 4 50 84 -80 147 9 24 -22 51 54 147 23 45 -22 46 16 145 38 40 -23 26 25 148 51 9 -22 11 1
146 26 51 -21 48 22 14 49 27 49 86 -80 146 19 40 -21 51 9 146 34 0 -21 45 34 144 49 4 -22 25 17 148 1 16 -21 10 40
145 36 17 -20 47 32 14 49 50 49 87 -81 145 29 7 -20 50 17 145 43 26 -20 44 46 143 58 34 -21 24 3 147 10 38 -20 10 14
144 44 49 -19 46 33 14 50 13 48 89 -82 144 37 39 -19 49 17 144 51 59 -19 43 50 143 7 5 -20 22 40 146 19 10 -19 9 38
143 52 23 -18 45 25 14 50 36 47 90 -83 143 45 12 -18 48 7 143 59 33 -18 42 43 142 14 33 -19 21 7 145 26 48 -18 8 53
142 58 53 -17 44 4 14 50 59 46 91 -83 142 51 42 -17 46 44 143 6 3 -17 41 24 141 20 52 -18 19 21 144 33 27 -17 7 56
142 4 13 -16 42 28 14 51 22 46 93 -84 141 57 1 -16 45 6 142 11 25 -16 39 50 140 25 57 -17 17 20 143 39 0 -16 6 44
141 8 18 -15 40 36 14 51 45 45 94 -84 141 1 4 -15 43 12 141 15 31 -15 37 59 139 29 39 -16 15 2 142 43 24 -15 5 15
140 11 0 -14 38 24 14 52 8 44 95 -84 140 3 44 -14 40 58 140 18 15 -14 35 49 138 31 52 -15 12 23 141 46 30 -14 3 27
139 12 11 -13 35 49 14 52 32 43 96 -83 139 4 52 -13 38 21 139 19 28 -13 33 17 137 32 26 -14 9 21 140 48 11 -13 1 18
138 11 42 -12 32 49 14 52 55 42 97 -83 138 4 20 -12 35 19 138 19 2 -12 30 18 136 31 13 -13 5 53 139 48 19 -11 58 44
137 9 23 -11 29 20 14 53 18 41 98 -82 137 1 58 -11 31 48 137 16 47 -11 26 52 135 28 1 -12 1 54 138 46 46 -10 55 42
136 5 3 -10 25 18 14 53 41 40 99 -81 135 57 33 -10 27 44 136 12 31 -10 22 52 134 22 38 -10 57 20 137 43 19 - 9 52 9
134 58 28 - 9 20 40 14 54 4 39 100 -80 134 50 53 - 9 23 3 135 6 1 - 9 18 16 133 14 47 - 9 52 7 136 37 48 - 8 48 0
133 49 21 - 8 15 19 14 54 27 37 101 -79 133 41 40 - 8 17 40 133 57 1 - 8 12 58 132 4 11 - 8 46 10 135 29 58 - 7 43 12
132 37 26 - 7 9 12 14 54 50 36 102 -77 132 29 38 - 7 11 30 132 45 13 - 7 6 53 130 50 29 - 7 39 22 134 19 32 - 6 37 40
131 22 19 - 6 2 10 14 55 13 35 103 -76 131 14 22 - 6 4 25 131 30 14 - 5 59 54 129 33 16 - 6 31 36 133 6 10 - 5 31 17
130 3 33 - 4 54 6 14 55 36 33 103 -75 129 55 25 - 4 56 18 130 11 38 - 4 51 54 128 11 58 - 5 22 42 131 49 30 - 4 23 56
128 40 34 - 3 44 51 14 55 59 32 104 -73 128 32 15 - 3 46 59 128 48 52 - 3 42 43 126 45 57 - 4 12 30 130 29 2 - 3 15 29
127 12 41 - 2 34 13 14 56 22 30 104 -72 127 4 6 - 2 36 16 127 21 14 - 2 32 10 125 14 20 - 3 0 45 129 4 11 - 2 5 47
125 38 59 - 1 21 57 14 56 45 28 105 -70 125 30 5 - 1 23 55 125 47 50 - 1 19 59 123 36 0 - 1 47 9 127 34 11 - 0 54 36
123 58 14 - 0 7 44 14 57 8 27 105 -68 123 48 57 - 0 9 35 124 7 28 - 0 5 52 121 49 22 - 0 31 17 125 58 4 0 18 19
122 8 46 1 8 54 14 57 31 25 106 -66 121 58 59 1 7 11 122 18 30 1 10 37 119 52 11 0 47 26 124 14 30 1 33 19
120 8 8 2 28 34 14 57 54 22 106 -64 119 57 40 2 27 2 120 18 31 2 30 7 117 40 58 2 9 53 122 21 40 2 50 55
Uncertainty in time = +/- 27 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 5.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]