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Updated: 2014 FEB 08, 23:12 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Mar 27 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (492) Gismonda will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, near Timaru and Haast, at low elevation, and across Australia from central South Australia in evening twilight across central New South Wales to just south of Sydney. The one sigma limit extends south to Canberra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.3 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-177 38 22 -50 0 0 9 45 43 0 311 -35 -178 28 47 ... .. .. 179 22 44 ... .. ..
-179 26 6 -49 0 0 9 45 43 2 312 -35 179 43 51 -178 36 22 177 36 13 ... .. ..
178 45 52 -48 0 0 9 45 42 3 314 -35 177 56 6 179 35 18 175 49 3 ... .. ..
176 57 18 -47 0 0 9 45 41 5 315 -35 176 7 42 177 46 32 174 0 58 ... .. ..
175 7 55 -46 0 0 9 45 39 7 317 -35 174 18 24 175 57 3 172 11 42 ... .. ..
173 17 28 -45 0 0 9 45 36 8 318 -34 172 27 54 174 6 36 170 20 57 176 8 41
171 25 38 -44 0 0 9 45 33 10 319 -34 170 35 55 172 14 54 168 28 24 174 17 8
169 32 7 -43 0 0 9 45 29 12 321 -33 168 42 7 170 21 37 166 33 40 172 24 18
167 36 33 -42 0 0 9 45 24 13 322 -32 166 46 7 168 26 26 164 36 23 170 29 53
165 38 33 -41 0 0 9 45 19 15 324 -31 164 47 32 166 28 57 162 36 3 168 33 30
163 37 39 -40 0 0 9 45 12 17 325 -30 162 45 52 164 28 45 160 32 7 166 34 48
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
162 0 0 -39 12 43 9 45 7 18 326 -30 -39 37 49 -38 47 54 -40 42 21 -37 46 31
161 0 0 -38 44 14 9 45 3 19 327 -29 -39 9 11 -38 19 33 -40 13 20 -37 18 30
160 0 0 -38 16 11 9 44 59 20 328 -29 -38 41 0 -37 51 39 -39 44 46 -36 50 55
159 0 0 -37 48 36 9 44 55 20 329 -28 -38 13 16 -37 24 11 -39 16 40 -36 23 47
158 0 0 -37 21 29 9 44 51 21 329 -27 -37 46 1 -36 57 13 -38 49 3 -35 57 7
157 0 0 -36 54 51 9 44 47 22 330 -27 -37 19 15 -36 30 43 -38 21 55 -35 30 56
156 0 0 -36 28 43 9 44 42 23 331 -26 -36 52 59 -36 4 42 -37 55 18 -35 5 14
155 0 0 -36 3 6 9 44 38 24 332 -25 -36 27 14 -35 39 13 -37 29 13 -34 40 3
154 0 0 -35 38 1 9 44 33 24 333 -25 -36 2 1 -35 14 15 -37 3 39 -34 15 22
153 0 0 -35 13 27 9 44 28 25 334 -24 -35 37 20 -34 49 49 -36 38 39 -33 51 13
152 0 0 -34 49 27 9 44 23 26 334 -23 -35 13 13 -34 25 55 -36 14 11 -33 27 36
151 0 0 -34 26 0 9 44 18 27 335 -23 -34 49 38 -34 2 35 -35 50 18 -33 4 33
150 0 0 -34 3 6 9 44 13 27 336 -22 -34 26 38 -33 39 48 -35 27 0 -32 42 2
149 0 0 -33 40 48 9 44 7 28 337 -21 -34 4 13 -33 17 36 -35 4 17 -32 20 6
148 0 0 -33 19 5 9 44 2 29 338 -20 -33 42 23 -32 55 59 -34 42 9 -31 58 44
147 0 0 -32 57 57 9 43 56 29 339 -20 -33 21 9 -32 34 58 -34 20 39 -31 37 58
146 0 0 -32 37 26 9 43 50 30 340 -19 -33 0 32 -32 14 32 -33 59 45 -31 17 47
145 0 0 -32 17 31 9 43 45 30 341 -18 -32 40 31 -31 54 43 -33 39 28 -30 58 12
144 0 0 -31 58 13 9 43 39 31 342 -17 -32 21 7 -31 35 31 -33 19 49 -30 39 13
143 0 0 -31 39 33 9 43 33 32 343 -16 -32 2 21 -31 16 56 -33 0 48 -30 20 51
142 0 0 -31 21 30 9 43 26 32 344 -15 -31 44 13 -30 58 59 -32 42 26 -30 3 7
141 0 0 -31 4 6 9 43 20 33 345 -15 -31 26 44 -30 41 40 -32 24 43 -29 46 0
140 0 0 -30 47 20 9 43 14 33 346 -14 -31 9 53 -30 24 59 -32 7 39 -29 29 31
139 0 0 -30 31 14 9 43 8 34 347 -13 -30 53 42 -30 8 57 -31 51 15 -29 13 40
138 0 0 -30 15 46 9 43 1 34 348 -12 -30 38 10 -29 53 34 -31 35 30 -28 58 28
137 0 0 -30 0 58 9 42 55 34 349 -11 -30 23 17 -29 38 50 -31 20 26 -28 43 54
136 0 0 -29 46 49 9 42 48 35 350 -10 -30 9 4 -29 24 46 -31 6 2 -28 30 0
135 0 0 -29 33 21 9 42 41 35 351 -9 -29 55 32 -29 11 21 -30 52 19 -28 16 45
134 0 0 -29 20 33 9 42 35 36 352 -9 -29 42 40 -28 58 37 -30 39 17 -28 4 9
133 0 0 -29 8 25 9 42 28 36 353 -8 -29 30 28 -28 46 32 -30 26 56 -27 52 13
132 0 0 -28 56 57 9 42 21 36 355 -7 -29 18 58 -28 35 8 -30 15 16 -27 40 57
131 0 0 -28 46 11 9 42 14 36 356 -6 -29 8 8 -28 24 25 -30 4 18 -27 30 21
130 0 0 -28 36 5 9 42 7 37 357 -5 -28 57 59 -28 14 22 -29 54 1 -27 20 26
129 0 0 -28 26 41 9 42 0 37 358 -4 -28 48 32 -28 5 0 -29 44 27 -27 11 10
128 0 0 -28 17 57 9 41 53 37 359 -3 -28 39 46 -27 56 20 -29 35 34 -27 2 36
127 0 0 -28 9 55 9 41 46 37 0 -2 -28 31 41 -27 48 20 -29 27 23 -26 54 42
126 0 0 -28 2 35 9 41 39 37 2 -1 -28 24 18 -27 41 1 -29 19 54 -26 47 28
125 0 0 -27 55 55 9 41 32 37 3 0 -28 17 37 -27 34 24 -29 13 8 -26 40 56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2014 Feb 9.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
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