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Updated: 2014 FEB 08, 23:12 UT
Event Rank : 12
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Mar 27 UT, the 11 km diameter asteroid (4132) Bartok will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a very narrow path across Australia from Eucla roughly along the eastern Western Australia border to Wyndham.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.7 mag to 15.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
130 25 33 -35 0 0 12 39 44 49 5 -40 130 29 13 130 21 53 131 8 30 129 42 34
130 18 45 -34 0 0 12 39 52 50 5 -41 130 22 23 130 15 7 131 1 12 129 36 16
130 11 52 -33 0 0 12 40 0 51 5 -41 130 15 28 130 8 17 130 53 50 129 29 52
130 4 55 -32 0 0 12 40 8 52 5 -41 130 8 28 130 1 22 130 46 25 129 23 22
129 57 52 -31 0 0 12 40 17 53 6 -42 130 1 23 129 54 22 130 38 57 129 16 45
129 50 45 -30 0 0 12 40 26 54 6 -42 129 54 14 129 47 16 130 31 25 129 10 3
129 43 33 -29 0 0 12 40 34 55 6 -43 129 47 0 129 40 6 130 23 50 129 3 14
129 36 16 -28 0 0 12 40 43 56 7 -43 129 39 41 129 32 51 130 16 10 128 56 19
129 28 54 -27 0 0 12 40 52 57 7 -43 129 32 17 129 25 31 130 8 27 128 49 18
129 21 27 -26 0 0 12 41 1 58 7 -44 129 24 48 129 18 5 130 0 40 128 42 11
129 13 54 -25 0 0 12 41 10 59 8 -44 129 17 14 129 10 35 129 52 49 128 34 58
129 6 17 -24 0 0 12 41 19 60 8 -44 129 9 35 129 2 59 129 44 53 128 27 38
128 58 34 -23 0 0 12 41 29 61 8 -45 129 1 51 128 55 18 129 36 54 128 20 13
128 50 46 -22 0 0 12 41 38 62 9 -45 128 54 1 128 47 31 129 28 49 128 12 41
128 42 53 -21 0 0 12 41 48 63 9 -45 128 46 7 128 39 39 129 20 41 128 5 2
128 34 54 -20 0 0 12 41 57 64 10 -45 128 38 7 128 31 41 129 12 28 127 57 18
128 26 50 -19 0 0 12 42 7 64 10 -45 128 30 1 128 23 38 129 4 10 127 49 27
128 18 40 -18 0 0 12 42 17 65 11 -46 128 21 50 128 15 29 128 55 48 127 41 29
128 10 24 -17 0 0 12 42 27 66 12 -46 128 13 34 128 7 14 128 47 20 127 33 25
128 2 3 -16 0 0 12 42 36 67 12 -46 128 5 11 127 58 54 128 38 48 127 25 15
127 53 35 -15 0 0 12 42 46 68 13 -46 127 56 43 127 50 27 128 30 11 127 16 57
127 45 2 -14 0 0 12 42 56 69 14 -46 127 48 9 127 41 55 128 21 28 127 8 33
127 36 22 -13 0 0 12 43 7 70 15 -46 127 39 29 127 33 16 128 12 40 127 0 3
127 27 37 -12 0 0 12 43 17 71 16 -46 127 30 42 127 24 31 128 3 46 126 51 25
127 18 45 -11 0 0 12 43 27 72 17 -46 127 21 49 127 15 40 127 54 47 126 42 40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2014 Feb 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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