|
|
Updated: 2014 JAN 19, 16:30 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Feb 10 UT, the 77 km diameter asteroid (626) Notburga will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Lynx for observers along a north-to-south through central Queensland, and running down the eastern SA border ending near Mount Gambier at very low altitude.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
141 38 2 -39 0 0 12 20 28 1 359 -27 141 8 20 142 7 51 140 36 56 142 39 33
141 37 59 -38 0 0 12 20 28 2 359 -27 141 8 40 142 7 23 140 37 42 142 38 39
141 38 34 -37 0 0 12 20 28 3 359 -28 141 9 39 142 7 35 140 39 5 142 38 27
141 39 47 -36 0 0 12 20 27 4 359 -29 141 11 14 142 8 27 140 41 3 142 38 55
141 41 37 -35 0 0 12 20 26 5 359 -30 141 13 23 142 9 55 140 43 34 142 40 2
141 44 1 -34 0 0 12 20 26 6 359 -31 141 16 7 142 12 0 140 46 39 142 41 46
141 47 0 -33 0 0 12 20 25 7 359 -31 141 19 24 142 14 41 140 50 15 142 44 7
141 50 32 -32 0 0 12 20 24 8 359 -32 141 23 13 142 17 55 140 54 22 142 47 2
141 54 36 -31 0 0 12 20 22 9 359 -33 141 27 34 142 21 42 140 59 0 142 50 32
141 59 11 -30 0 0 12 20 21 10 359 -34 141 32 25 142 26 2 141 4 7 142 54 35
142 4 17 -29 0 0 12 20 19 11 359 -34 141 37 45 142 30 54 141 9 43 142 59 11
142 9 53 -28 0 0 12 20 18 12 359 -35 141 43 36 142 36 16 141 15 48 143 4 19
142 15 59 -27 0 0 12 20 16 13 359 -36 141 49 54 142 42 9 141 22 21 143 9 58
142 22 34 -26 0 0 12 20 14 14 359 -37 141 56 42 142 48 32 141 29 21 143 16 7
142 29 38 -25 0 0 12 20 11 15 359 -37 142 3 57 142 55 24 141 36 48 143 22 47
142 37 10 -24 0 0 12 20 9 16 359 -38 142 11 39 143 2 45 141 44 42 143 29 57
142 45 10 -23 0 0 12 20 7 17 359 -39 142 19 49 143 10 35 141 53 2 143 37 36
142 53 37 -22 0 0 12 20 4 18 359 -40 142 28 26 143 18 53 142 1 49 143 45 45
143 2 33 -21 0 0 12 20 1 19 358 -40 142 37 30 143 27 40 142 11 2 143 54 22
143 11 55 -20 0 0 12 19 58 20 358 -41 142 47 1 143 36 54 142 20 42 144 3 28
143 21 45 -19 0 0 12 19 55 21 358 -42 142 56 58 143 46 37 142 30 47 144 13 3
143 32 3 -18 0 0 12 19 52 22 358 -43 143 7 22 143 56 47 142 41 18 144 23 6
143 42 47 -17 0 0 12 19 48 23 358 -44 143 18 13 144 7 26 142 52 15 144 33 38
143 53 59 -16 0 0 12 19 45 24 358 -44 143 29 31 144 18 32 143 3 39 144 44 38
144 5 38 -15 0 0 12 19 41 25 358 -45 143 41 15 144 30 6 143 15 28 144 56 7
144 17 45 -14 0 0 12 19 37 26 358 -46 143 53 26 144 42 9 143 27 44 145 8 5
144 30 19 -13 0 0 12 19 33 27 357 -47 144 6 4 144 54 39 143 40 26 145 20 32
144 43 22 -12 0 0 12 19 29 28 357 -47 144 19 10 145 7 38 143 53 35 145 33 27
144 56 52 -11 0 0 12 19 25 29 357 -48 144 32 43 145 21 6 144 7 11 145 46 52
145 10 51 -10 0 0 12 19 20 30 357 -49 144 46 44 145 35 3 144 21 15 146 0 47
145 25 19 - 9 0 0 12 19 16 31 357 -50 145 1 13 145 49 29 144 35 46 146 15 11
145 40 16 - 8 0 0 12 19 11 32 357 -50 145 16 11 146 4 25 144 50 45 146 30 6
145 55 42 - 7 0 0 12 19 6 33 356 -51 145 31 38 146 19 51 145 6 13 146 45 32
146 11 39 - 6 0 0 12 19 1 33 356 -52 145 47 35 146 35 48 145 22 9 147 1 29
146 28 7 - 5 0 0 12 18 56 34 356 -53 146 4 2 146 52 16 145 38 35 147 17 58
146 45 5 - 4 0 0 12 18 51 35 356 -53 146 20 59 147 9 16 145 55 32 147 34 59
147 2 36 - 3 0 0 12 18 45 36 355 -54 146 38 28 147 26 49 146 12 59 147 52 34
147 20 39 - 2 0 0 12 18 40 37 355 -55 146 56 29 147 44 54 146 30 58 148 10 42
147 39 16 - 1 0 0 12 18 34 38 355 -55 147 15 3 148 3 34 146 49 28 148 29 25
147 58 27 0 0 0 12 18 28 39 354 -56 147 34 11 148 22 49 147 8 32 148 48 44
148 18 13 1 0 0 12 18 22 40 354 -57 147 53 53 148 42 39 147 28 10 149 8 39
148 38 36 2 0 0 12 18 16 41 354 -58 148 14 10 149 3 6 147 48 23 149 29 11
148 59 35 3 0 0 12 18 10 42 353 -58 148 35 4 149 24 11 148 9 11 149 50 22
149 21 13 4 0 0 12 18 3 43 353 -59 148 56 36 149 45 55 148 30 36 150 12 13
149 43 30 5 0 0 12 17 57 44 353 -60 149 18 46 150 8 19 148 52 40 150 34 44
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 20.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]