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Updated: 2014 Jan 07, 01:03 UT
Event Rank : 62
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jan 31 UT, the 63 km diameter asteroid (607) Jenny will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across northern Queensland, Northern Territory, southern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.4 mag to 14.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1852-01221-1 by 607 Jenny on 2014 Jan 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
119 47 21 -37 0 0 13 41 39 27 347 -25 119 7 53 120 27 11 117 50 42 121 47 9
120 28 37 -36 0 0 13 41 23 28 346 -26 119 49 16 121 8 19 118 32 22 122 28 3
121 11 13 -35 0 0 13 41 7 29 346 -27 120 31 58 121 50 49 119 15 16 123 10 24
121 55 10 -34 0 0 13 40 49 30 345 -28 121 15 58 122 34 44 119 59 25 123 54 13
122 40 31 -33 0 0 13 40 32 30 344 -29 122 1 21 123 20 4 120 44 51 124 39 33
123 27 18 -32 0 0 13 40 14 31 343 -31 122 48 7 124 6 53 121 31 37 125 26 28
124 15 35 -31 0 0 13 39 55 32 342 -32 123 36 20 124 55 14 122 19 45 126 14 59
125 5 25 -30 0 0 13 39 35 33 341 -33 124 26 4 125 45 10 123 9 18 127 5 11
125 56 51 -29 0 0 13 39 15 33 340 -34 125 17 22 126 36 46 124 0 21 127 57 8
126 49 58 -28 0 0 13 38 54 34 339 -35 126 10 17 127 30 6 124 52 57 128 50 55
127 44 51 -27 0 0 13 38 33 35 338 -37 127 4 55 128 25 14 125 47 9 129 46 38
128 41 35 -26 0 0 13 38 10 35 337 -38 128 1 22 129 22 17 126 43 4 130 44 22
129 40 16 -25 0 0 13 37 48 36 336 -39 128 59 42 130 21 21 127 40 47 131 44 15
130 41 2 -24 0 0 13 37 24 37 335 -40 130 0 3 131 22 33 128 40 23 132 46 25
131 44 1 -23 0 0 13 37 0 37 333 -42 131 2 33 132 26 3 129 42 0 133 51 2
132 49 22 -22 0 0 13 36 34 37 332 -43 132 7 20 133 31 59 130 45 46 134 58 16
133 57 15 -21 0 0 13 36 8 38 331 -44 133 14 35 134 40 34 131 51 50 136 8 21
135 7 54 -20 0 0 13 35 42 38 329 -46 134 24 28 135 52 0 133 0 23 137 21 31
136 21 31 -19 0 0 13 35 14 39 328 -47 135 37 14 137 6 33 134 11 35 138 38 5
137 38 26 -18 0 0 13 34 45 39 326 -49 136 53 9 138 24 31 135 25 43 139 58 24
138 58 57 -17 0 0 13 34 16 39 324 -50 138 12 31 139 46 17 136 43 1 141 22 53
140 23 30 -16 0 0 13 33 45 39 323 -52 139 35 44 141 12 16 138 3 49 142 52 4
141 52 34 -15 0 0 13 33 13 39 321 -53 141 3 13 142 43 2 139 28 31 144 26 38
143 26 47 -14 0 0 13 32 40 39 319 -55 142 35 35 144 19 16 140 57 35 146 7 26
145 6 56 -13 0 0 13 32 6 39 318 -56 144 13 30 146 1 51 142 31 37 147 55 35
146 54 2 -12 0 0 13 31 30 38 316 -58 145 57 54 147 51 57 144 11 20 149 52 38
148 49 30 -11 0 0 13 30 52 38 314 -59 147 50 0 149 51 10 145 57 42 152 0 48
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 7.0
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