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Updated: 2013 Oct 08, 22:37 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jan 30 UT, the 106 km diameter asteroid (4063) Euforbo will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across South Australia and western Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 16.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0890-00502-1 by 4063 Euforbo on 2014 Jan 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
132 38 14 -36 50 44 17 16 29 29 42 -29 131 54 45 -36 49 35 133 21 13 -36 52 5 129 3 18 -36 47 17 136 1 12 -36 59 5
134 10 14 -34 37 0 17 16 44 31 42 -31 133 28 57 -34 35 28 134 51 5 -34 38 43 130 47 1 -34 31 24 137 23 42 -34 46 50
135 28 55 -32 30 9 17 17 0 34 41 -32 134 49 23 -32 28 20 136 8 6 -32 32 7 132 14 49 -32 22 58 138 34 50 -32 41 3
136 37 21 -30 28 56 17 17 15 36 41 -33 135 59 14 -30 26 55 137 15 10 -30 31 6 133 30 33 -30 20 34 139 37 6 -30 40 40
137 37 39 -28 32 27 17 17 30 38 41 -34 137 0 41 -28 30 15 138 14 20 -28 34 46 134 36 50 -28 23 9 140 32 14 -28 44 49
138 31 18 -26 39 59 17 17 46 40 41 -35 137 55 20 -26 37 40 139 7 2 -26 42 26 135 35 31 -26 29 57 141 21 32 -26 52 52
139 19 28 -24 51 0 17 18 1 42 41 -35 138 44 20 -24 48 34 139 54 24 -24 53 33 136 27 56 -24 40 22 142 5 58 -25 4 18
140 3 1 -23 5 4 17 18 16 44 41 -36 139 28 36 -23 2 33 140 37 14 -23 7 41 137 15 7 -22 53 56 142 46 17 -23 18 42
140 42 36 -21 21 48 17 18 31 45 42 -37 140 8 48 -21 19 12 141 16 13 -21 24 30 137 57 51 -21 10 15 143 23 4 -21 35 43
141 18 48 -19 40 54 17 18 47 47 42 -38 140 45 32 -19 38 15 141 51 53 -19 43 40 138 36 46 -19 29 1 143 56 49 -19 55 4
141 52 0 -18 2 8 17 19 2 49 43 -38 141 19 13 -17 59 25 142 24 38 -18 4 57 139 12 22 -17 49 56 144 27 53 -18 16 30
142 22 36 -16 25 16 17 19 17 50 43 -39 141 50 14 -16 22 30 142 54 50 -16 28 7 139 45 2 -16 12 48 144 56 37 -16 39 49
142 50 53 -14 50 6 17 19 33 52 44 -39 142 18 53 -14 47 18 143 22 46 -14 52 59 140 15 8 -14 37 24 145 23 16 -15 4 48
143 17 6 -13 16 29 17 19 48 53 45 -40 142 45 24 -13 13 38 143 48 40 -13 19 24 140 42 56 -13 3 34 145 48 2 -13 31 20
143 41 28 -11 44 15 17 20 3 55 46 -41 143 10 2 -11 41 23 144 12 45 -11 47 13 141 8 40 -11 31 10 146 11 9 -11 59 14
144 4 8 -10 13 18 17 20 18 56 47 -41 143 32 57 -10 10 23 144 35 12 -10 16 17 141 32 32 -10 0 2 146 32 45 -10 28 23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 20 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 7.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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