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Updated: 2013 JUL 05, 16:41 UT
Event Rank : 4
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Aug 29 UT, the 258 km diameter asteroid (10199) Chariklo will occult a 13.8 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across possibly New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.8 mag to 18.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-173 39 9 -25 0 0 6 45 33 71 218 -20 -172 17 44 -175 0 38 -128 15 6 138 25 2
-174 1 37 -26 0 0 6 45 22 72 219 -19 -172 39 30 -175 23 49 -128 18 22 137 12 18
-174 24 23 -27 0 0 6 45 12 73 220 -19 -173 1 32 -175 47 21 -128 20 30 135 54 44
-174 47 30 -28 0 0 6 45 2 74 222 -19 -173 23 51 -176 11 16 -128 21 28 134 31 40
-175 10 58 -29 0 0 6 44 51 75 223 -18 -173 46 29 -176 35 35 -128 21 15 133 2 14
-175 34 49 -30 0 0 6 44 41 76 225 -18 -174 9 27 -177 0 21 -128 19 49 131 25 20
-175 59 5 -31 0 0 6 44 30 77 227 -17 -174 32 47 -177 25 35 -128 17 9 129 39 32
-176 23 49 -32 0 0 6 44 20 78 230 -17 -174 56 32 -177 51 19 -128 13 11 127 42 49
-176 49 2 -33 0 0 6 44 9 79 233 -17 -175 20 42 -178 17 36 -128 7 54 125 32 14
-177 14 46 -34 0 0 6 43 58 80 237 -16 -175 45 20 -178 44 28 -128 1 13 123 3 14
-177 41 4 -35 0 0 6 43 48 81 241 -16 -176 10 29 -179 11 57 -127 53 7 120 7 51
-178 7 59 -36 0 0 6 43 37 82 246 -16 -176 36 10 -179 40 8 -127 43 31 116 29 35
-178 35 33 -37 0 0 6 43 26 82 252 -15 -177 2 26 179 50 58 -127 32 22 111 18 7
-179 3 49 -38 0 0 6 43 15 83 259 -15 -177 29 20 179 21 18 -127 19 34 ... .. ..
-179 32 51 -39 0 0 6 43 5 83 268 -14 -177 56 54 178 50 47 -127 5 2 ... .. ..
179 57 19 -40 0 0 6 42 54 84 278 -14 -178 25 12 178 19 22 -126 48 42 ... .. ..
179 26 36 -41 0 0 6 42 43 84 289 -13 -178 54 18 177 46 58 -126 30 25 ... .. ..
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
178 0 0 -43 39 48 6 42 14 83 319 -12 -46 44 38 -40 36 5 .. .. .. .. .. ..
177 0 0 -45 22 41 6 41 55 82 333 -12 -48 22 38 -42 23 46 .. .. .. .. .. ..
176 0 0 -46 59 31 6 41 37 81 343 -11 -49 54 38 -44 5 18 .. .. .. .. .. ..
175 0 0 -48 30 36 6 41 20 80 351 -10 -51 20 59 -45 41 0 .. .. .. .. .. ..
174 0 0 -49 56 14 6 41 4 78 356 -10 -52 42 3 -47 11 9 .. .. .. .. .. ..
173 0 0 -51 16 47 6 40 50 77 1 -9 -53 58 10 -48 36 4 .. .. .. .. .. ..
172 0 0 -52 32 33 6 40 36 76 4 -8 -55 9 38 -49 56 3 .. .. .. .. .. ..
171 0 0 -53 43 49 6 40 22 75 7 -8 -56 16 48 -51 11 24 .. .. .. .. .. ..
170 0 0 -54 50 55 6 40 10 73 9 -7 -57 19 56 -52 22 25 .. .. .. .. .. ..
169 0 0 -55 54 7 6 39 58 72 12 -7 -58 19 21 -53 29 21 .. .. .. .. .. ..
168 0 0 -56 53 39 6 39 47 71 14 -6 -59 15 16 -54 32 30 .. .. .. .. .. ..
167 0 0 -57 49 49 6 39 37 70 15 -6 -60 7 57 -55 32 6 .. .. .. .. .. ..
166 0 0 -58 42 48 6 39 27 69 17 -6 -60 57 37 -56 28 23 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 479 secs
Prediction of 2012 Jun 2.0
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