RASNZ Occultation Section - Chariklo Occultation Update

ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (10199) CHARIKLO - 2013 Aug 22

Updated: 2013 JUL 05, 16:01 UT

Event Rank : 3

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).

THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

On 2013 Aug 22 UT, the 258 km diameter asteroid (10199) Chariklo will occult a 14.6 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across Pacific Ocean.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.0 mag to 18.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 25.1 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :

Event Rank : 3
Date and approx. UT time of event : 2013 Aug 22, 06:53 - 2013 Aug 22, 07:01
(Refer to map(s) for your own location)
Magnitude of target star : 14.6
Magnitude drop [mag] : 4.0
Estimated maximum duration [s] : 25.1
Phase of moon, angular distance : 98 % sunlit, 92° distance
Sun : 105° distance
Rough path description : Pacific Ocean

Data for the target star :

Name : 2UCAC 15328219
Constellation : Scorpius
J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"]: RA: 16 42 46.1357 DE: -38 52 52.188
Position source : mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4
Standard error : RA,DE ["]: ( .061, .057 )
V mag [mag] : 14.6
B mag [mag] : 0.0
Remarks : (none)

Data for the minor planet :

Number, name : (10199) Chariklo
Approx. diameter [km] : 258
Approx. diameter [arcsec] : .025
Distance from Earth [AU] : 14.31100
Source of used astrometry : FASTT MPC (via Astdys)
Number of used observations : 540
Number of rejected observations : 7
Time covered by the observations : 1988 Nov 05 - 2011 Aug 29
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : 0.508, 0.058, 81°
Remarks : (none)
Orbital Elements for (10199) Chariklo :
Update computed by : Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).

The Occultation Path :

Approximate projected width [km] : 508
Uncertainty interval [path widths] : +/- 19.09 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval [seconds] : +/- 200.7 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["] : (+/- .505 +/- .112) (1 sigma)
Uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : ( .512", .081", 81° ) (1 sigma)
Approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 10.2981
Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Co-ordinates :

                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun     Path Limit1           Path Limit2           Error Limit1          Error Limit2
  E. Longitude    Latitude      U.T.    Alt   Az    Alt                                                                                       
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Longitude  Latitude   Longitude  Latitude   Longitude  Latitude   Longitude  Latitude
   - 81 19 51   -37 41 13    6 52 56    15   232   -58 - 84 35 25  -40 15 28 - 77 12 30  -34 16 41  176 13 18  -65 17 46  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 83 12 33   -37 55 22    6 53  5    16   233   -59 - 86 19 10  -40 19 12 - 79 26 51  -34 52 56  176 30 49  -64 26 23  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 84 58 27   -38  3 30    6 53 13    17   234   -59 - 87 57 59  -40 18 50 - 81 27 49  -35 16 57  176 47  8  -63 35 19  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 86 38 35   -38  6 42    6 53 22    18   235   -60 - 89 32 21  -40 14 56 - 83 19 11  -35 32 19  177  2 23  -62 44 33  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 88 13 42   -38  5 46    6 53 30    19   235   -61 - 91  2 38  -40  7 55 - 85  3  1  -35 41  7  177 16 40  -61 54  6  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   - 89 44 18   -38  1 16    6 53 38    20   236   -61 - 92 29  8  -39 58  9 - 86 40 40  -35 44 37  177 30  5  -61  3 55  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 91 10 50   -37 53 39    6 53 47    21   237   -62 - 93 52  7  -39 45 54 - 88 13  0  -35 43 46  177 42 44  -60 14  1  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 92 33 37   -37 43 17    6 53 55    22   237   -62 - 95 11 46  -39 31 26 - 89 40 41  -35 39 12  177 54 41  -59 24 22  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 93 52 55   -37 30 28    6 54  4    23   238   -63 - 96 28 18  -39 14 56 - 91  4 12  -35 31 26  178  5 58  -58 34 57  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 95  8 59   -37 15 26    6 54 12    23   238   -64 - 97 41 51  -38 56 35 - 92 23 55  -35 20 51  178 16 41  -57 45 46  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   - 96 21 58   -36 58 24    6 54 21    24   238   -64 - 98 52 35  -38 36 32 - 93 40  8  -35  7 45  178 26 51  -56 56 48  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 97 32  4   -36 39 31    6 54 29    25   239   -65 -100  0 37  -38 14 55 - 94 53  7  -34 52 25  178 36 32  -56  8  3  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 98 39 26   -36 18 57    6 54 38    25   239   -65 -101  6  4  -37 51 50 - 96  3  3  -34 35  2  178 45 46  -55 19 29  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   - 99 44 11   -35 56 50    6 54 46    26   239   -66 -102  9  4  -37 27 25 - 97 10  8  -34 15 48  178 54 35  -54 31  5  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -100 46 27   -35 33 16    6 54 55    26   239   -66 -103  9 41  -37  1 44 - 98 14 32  -33 54 52  179  3  1  -53 42 52  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -101 46 19   -35  8 22    6 55  3    27   240   -67 -104  8  1  -36 34 52 - 99 16 21  -33 32 21  179 11  6  -52 54 49  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -102 43 55   -34 42 12    6 55 12    27   240   -67 -105  4 10  -36  6 54 -100 15 45  -33  8 23  179 18 52  -52  6 54  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -103 39 19   -34 14 52    6 55 20    28   240   -67 -105 58 14  -35 37 53 -101 12 48  -32 43  3  179 26 19  -51 19  8  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -104 32 37   -33 46 26    6 55 28    28   240   -68 -106 50 15  -35  7 54 -102  7 38  -32 16 27  179 33 29  -50 31 30  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -105 23 53   -33 16 56    6 55 37    28   240   -68 -107 40 20  -34 36 58 -103  0 21  -31 48 39  179 40 24  -49 43 58  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -106 13 13   -32 46 27    6 55 45    29   240   -69 -108 28 31  -34  5  9 -103 50 59  -31 19 43  179 47  5  -48 56 33  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -107  0 39   -32 15  2    6 55 54    29   240   -69 -109 14 54  -33 32 30 -104 39 40  -30 49 44  179 53 32  -48  9 15  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -107 46 17   -31 42 42    6 56  2    29   240   -70 -109 59 31  -32 59  2 -105 26 26  -30 18 43  179 59 46  -47 22  1  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -108 30  9   -31  9 31    6 56 11    29   240   -70 -110 42 26  -32 24 48 -106 11 23  -29 46 45 -179 54 11  -46 34 52  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -109 12 19   -30 35 30    6 56 19    30   240   -70 -111 23 42  -31 49 49 -106 54 32  -29 13 50 -179 48 19  -45 47 48  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -109 52 50   -30  0 42    6 56 28    30   240   -71 -112  3 23  -31 14  7 -107 35 59  -28 40  3 -179 42 37  -45  0 47  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -110 31 45   -29 25  7    6 56 36    30   240   -71 -112 41 31  -30 37 43 -108 15 45  -28  5 23 -179 37  5  -44 13 50  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -111  9  8   -28 48 48    6 56 45    30   239   -71 -113 18 10  -30  0 39 -108 53 54  -27 29 54 -179 31 42  -43 26 55  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -111 45  0   -28 11 45    6 56 53    30   239   -72 -113 53 20  -29 22 56 -109 30 29  -26 53 36 -179 26 26  -42 40  2  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -112 19 23   -27 34  0    6 57  2    30   239   -72 -114 27  6  -28 44 34 -110  5 32  -26 16 30 -179 21 19  -41 53 11  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -112 52 22   -26 55 33    6 57 10    30   239   -72 -114 59 30  -28  5 34 -110 39  5  -25 38 39 -179 16 18  -41  6 21  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -113 23 56   -26 16 25    6 57 19    30   238   -73 -115 30 32  -27 25 57 -111 11 11  -25  0  1 -179 11 25  -40 19 32  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -113 54  8   -25 36 36    6 57 27    30   238   -73 -116  0 16  -26 45 44 -111 41 51  -24 20 39 -179  6 37  -39 32 43  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -114 23  1   -24 56  8    6 57 35    30   238   -73 -116 28 43  -26  4 54 -112 11  7  -23 40 32 -179  1 55  -38 45 53  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -114 50 35   -24 15  0    6 57 44    30   238   -74 -116 55 55  -25 23 28 -112 39  0  -22 59 42 -178 57 19  -37 59  3  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -115 16 52   -23 33 12    6 57 52    30   237   -74 -117 21 52  -24 41 26 -113  5 32  -22 18  7 -178 52 47  -37 12 11  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -115 41 52   -22 50 44    6 58  1    30   237   -74 -117 46 38  -23 58 48 -113 30 44  -21 35 47 -178 48 20  -36 25 17  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -116  5 38   -22  7 37    6 58  9    30   237   -74 -118 10 12  -23 15 34 -113 54 36  -20 52 44 -178 43 58  -35 38 20  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -116 28 10   -21 23 49    6 58 18    30   236   -74 -118 32 35  -22 31 44 -114 17 10  -20  8 55 -178 39 39  -34 51 21  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -116 49 29   -20 39 21    6 58 26    30   236   -75 -118 53 49  -21 47 17 -114 38 26  -19 24 21 -178 35 24  -34  4 18  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -117  9 35   -19 54 12    6 58 35    30   236   -75 -119 13 55  -21  2 12 -114 58 24  -18 39  1 -178 31 12  -33 17 10  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -117 28 29   -19  8 20    6 58 43    29   235   -75 -119 32 52  -20 16 30 -115 17  5  -17 52 53 -178 27  3  -32 29 59  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -117 46 10   -18 21 45    6 58 52    29   235   -75 -119 50 41  -19 30  9 -115 34 27  -17  5 57 -178 22 56  -31 42 42  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -118  2 38   -17 34 26    6 59  0    29   235   -75 -120  7 23  -18 43  7 -115 50 30  -16 18 10 -178 18 52  -30 55 19  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -118 17 54   -16 46 21    6 59  9    29   234   -75 -120 22 56  -17 55 25 -116  5 15  -15 29 32 -178 14 50  -30  7 50  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -118 31 57   -15 57 29    6 59 17    28   234   -75 -120 37 22  -17  7  1 -116 18 38  -14 39 59 -178 10 50  -29 20 13  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -118 44 45   -15  7 47    6 59 26    28   234   -75 -120 50 40  -16 17 53 -116 30 40  -13 49 30 -178  6 52  -28 32 30  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -118 56 18   -14 17 15    6 59 34    28   233   -75 -121  2 48  -15 28  0 -116 41 17  -12 58  2 -178  2 55  -27 44 38  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119  6 33   -13 25 48    6 59 42    27   233   -75 -121 13 46  -14 37 19 -116 50 27  -12  5 32 -177 58 59  -26 56 38  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 15 30   -12 33 25    6 59 51    27   232   -75 -121 23 33  -13 45 49 -116 58  8  -11 11 55 -177 55  4  -26  8 28  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -119 23  5   -11 40  2    6 59 59    26   232   -75 -121 32  6  -12 53 26 -117  4 15  -10 17  7 -177 51  9  -25 20  8  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 29 15   -10 45 35    7  0  8    26   232   -75 -121 39 25  -12  0  8 -117  8 43  - 9 21  4 -177 47 15  -24 31 37  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 33 57   - 9 50  0    7  0 16    25   231   -75 -121 45 26  -11  5 52 -117 11 27  - 8 23 38 -177 43 20  -23 42 55  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 37  7   - 8 53 13    7  0 25    25   231   -75 -121 50  6  -10 10 33 -117 12 20  - 7 24 43 -177 39 26  -22 54  1  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 38 38   - 7 55  6    7  0 33    24   231   -75 -121 53 23  - 9 14  9 -117 11 13  - 6 24 11 -177 35 31  -22  4 54  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

   -119 38 25   - 6 55 34    7  0 42    23   230   -74 -121 55 10  - 8 16 32 -117  7 55  - 5 21 50 -177 31 36  -21 15 33  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 36 19   - 5 54 29    7  0 50    23   230   -74 -121 55 25  - 7 17 39 -117  2 14  - 4 17 28 -177 27 39  -20 25 58  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 32 11   - 4 51 39    7  0 59    22   230   -74 -121 53 59  - 6 17 21 -116 53 51  - 3 10 49 -177 23 42  -19 36  7  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 25 48   - 3 46 55    7  1  7    21   229   -73 -121 50 45  - 5 15 32 -116 42 25  - 2  1 33 -177 19 43  -18 46  0  ... .. ..   .. .. ..
   -119 16 56   - 2 40  0    7  1 16    20   229   -73 -121 45 35  - 4 12  1 -116 27 26  - 0 49 13 -177 15 42  -17 55 37  ... .. ..   .. .. ..

Uncertainty in time = +/- 516 secs

Prediction of 2012 Jun  2.0

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