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Updated: 2013 JUL 04, 00:41 UT
Event Rank : 52
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Aug 12 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (136) Austria will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Scutum for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia beginning just north of Port Douglas in Queenland. The path move through central Queensland, and into South Australia near Port Augusta and Port Pirie.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.6 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
148 8 55 -10 35 38 15 58 5 24 266 -64 148 31 44 -10 37 33 147 46 26 -10 33 40 149 29 21 -10 42 3 146 52 27 -10 28 38
147 30 29 -11 20 25 15 58 21 25 267 -65 147 52 55 -11 22 24 147 8 22 -11 18 23 148 49 30 -11 27 5 146 15 12 -11 13 12
146 53 50 -12 5 1 15 58 37 26 267 -65 147 15 56 -12 7 4 146 32 2 -12 2 55 148 11 37 -12 11 55 145 39 35 -11 57 36
146 18 50 -12 49 28 15 58 53 26 268 -66 146 40 39 -12 51 35 145 57 19 -12 47 19 147 35 34 -12 56 35 145 5 29 -12 41 53
145 45 23 -13 33 48 15 59 8 27 268 -66 146 6 57 -13 35 58 145 24 6 -13 31 36 147 1 11 -13 41 6 144 32 49 -13 26 2
145 13 24 -14 18 1 15 59 24 27 269 -67 145 34 44 -14 20 14 144 52 19 -14 15 46 146 28 23 -14 25 30 144 1 31 -14 10 6
144 42 47 -15 2 9 15 59 40 27 269 -67 145 3 56 -15 4 24 144 21 53 -14 59 52 145 57 5 -15 9 48 143 31 29 -14 54 5
144 13 29 -15 46 12 15 59 56 28 270 -68 144 34 28 -15 48 30 143 52 44 -15 43 52 145 27 11 -15 54 0 143 2 41 -15 38 0
143 45 25 -16 30 12 16 0 11 28 270 -68 144 6 16 -16 32 32 143 24 48 -16 27 50 144 58 37 -16 38 8 142 35 2 -16 21 52
143 18 33 -17 14 9 16 0 27 29 271 -69 143 39 17 -17 16 32 142 58 3 -17 11 45 144 31 20 -17 22 14 142 8 31 -17 5 41
142 52 50 -17 58 5 16 0 43 29 271 -69 143 13 29 -18 0 29 142 32 25 -17 55 38 144 5 16 -18 6 16 141 43 5 -17 49 30
142 28 14 -18 41 59 16 0 59 29 272 -69 142 48 48 -18 44 26 142 7 52 -18 39 30 143 40 23 -18 50 18 141 18 41 -18 33 17
142 4 41 -19 25 53 16 1 14 30 272 -69 142 25 13 -19 28 22 141 44 23 -19 23 23 143 16 39 -19 34 19 140 55 18 -19 17 5
141 42 12 -20 9 48 16 1 30 30 273 -69 142 2 41 -20 12 18 141 21 56 -20 7 15 142 54 2 -20 18 20 140 32 55 -20 0 54
141 20 44 -20 53 43 16 1 46 30 273 -70 141 41 12 -20 56 15 141 0 29 -20 51 9 142 32 29 -21 2 22 140 11 30 -20 44 44
141 0 16 -21 37 41 16 2 2 30 274 -70 141 20 44 -21 40 15 140 40 1 -21 35 5 142 12 1 -21 46 25 139 51 1 -21 28 36
140 40 48 -22 21 41 16 2 17 30 274 -70 141 1 17 -22 24 16 140 20 31 -22 19 4 141 52 34 -22 30 30 139 31 29 -22 12 30
140 22 18 -23 5 44 16 2 33 31 275 -70 140 42 48 -23 8 21 140 1 59 -23 3 6 141 34 10 -23 14 39 139 12 52 -22 56 28
140 4 45 -23 49 51 16 2 49 31 275 -69 140 25 19 -23 52 29 139 44 24 -23 47 11 141 16 47 -23 58 51 138 55 10 -23 40 30
139 48 11 -24 34 2 16 3 4 31 276 -69 140 8 48 -24 36 42 139 27 46 -24 31 21 141 0 25 -24 43 7 138 38 23 -24 24 37
139 32 34 -25 18 19 16 3 20 31 276 -69 139 53 15 -25 21 0 139 12 4 -25 15 36 140 45 4 -25 27 28 138 22 30 -25 8 49
139 17 54 -26 2 41 16 3 36 31 277 -69 139 38 41 -26 5 23 138 57 19 -25 59 57 140 30 43 -26 11 55 138 7 31 -25 53 7
139 4 12 -26 47 10 16 3 52 31 277 -69 139 25 6 -26 49 53 138 43 31 -26 44 24 140 17 24 -26 56 28 137 53 28 -26 37 31
138 51 29 -27 31 45 16 4 7 31 278 -68 139 12 30 -27 34 30 138 30 41 -27 28 58 140 5 7 -27 41 7 137 40 20 -27 22 2
138 39 45 -28 16 28 16 4 23 31 278 -68 139 0 54 -28 19 14 138 18 48 -28 13 40 139 53 52 -28 25 54 137 28 7 -28 6 41
138 29 1 -29 1 19 16 4 39 31 279 -68 138 50 19 -29 4 6 138 7 55 -28 58 30 139 43 40 -29 10 49 137 16 52 -28 51 28
138 19 17 -29 46 19 16 4 55 31 279 -67 138 40 46 -29 49 7 137 58 1 -29 43 29 139 34 34 -29 55 52 137 6 34 -29 36 24
138 10 37 -30 31 28 16 5 10 31 280 -67 138 32 17 -30 34 17 137 49 9 -30 28 37 139 26 34 -30 41 5 136 57 15 -30 21 30
138 3 0 -31 16 47 16 5 26 31 280 -67 138 24 53 -31 19 37 137 41 21 -31 13 55 139 19 41 -31 26 27 136 48 57 -31 6 45
137 56 30 -32 2 17 16 5 42 31 281 -66 138 18 36 -32 5 7 137 34 37 -31 59 24 139 13 59 -32 12 0 136 41 41 -31 52 12
137 51 8 -32 47 58 16 5 58 31 281 -66 138 13 29 -32 50 49 137 29 0 -32 45 4 139 9 30 -32 57 43 136 35 29 -32 37 50
137 46 56 -33 33 51 16 6 13 31 282 -65 138 9 34 -33 36 43 137 24 32 -33 30 57 139 6 16 -33 43 39 136 30 24 -33 23 40
137 43 58 -34 19 57 16 6 29 30 282 -65 138 6 53 -34 22 50 137 21 17 -34 17 1 139 4 20 -34 29 47 136 26 28 -34 9 43
137 42 17 -35 6 15 16 6 45 30 283 -64 138 5 31 -35 9 9 137 19 17 -35 3 20 139 3 47 -35 16 8 136 23 43 -34 55 59
137 41 56 -35 52 48 16 7 1 30 283 -63 138 5 31 -35 55 43 137 18 36 -35 49 52 139 4 39 -36 2 42 136 22 14 -35 42 30
137 42 59 -36 39 36 16 7 16 30 283 -63 138 6 57 -36 42 31 137 19 18 -36 36 39 139 7 2 -36 49 31 136 22 4 -36 29 15
137 45 32 -37 26 39 16 7 32 29 284 -62 138 9 54 -37 29 34 137 21 27 -37 23 41 139 11 1 -37 36 35 136 23 17 -37 16 17
137 49 39 -38 13 57 16 7 48 29 284 -61 138 14 27 -38 16 53 137 25 8 -38 11 0 139 16 42 -38 23 54 136 25 57 -38 3 34
137 55 26 -39 1 33 16 8 3 29 284 -61 138 20 42 -39 4 28 137 30 27 -38 58 35 139 24 10 -39 11 30 136 30 11 -38 51 8
138 2 59 -39 49 26 16 8 19 28 285 -60 138 28 46 -39 52 21 137 37 31 -39 46 28 139 33 34 -39 59 22 136 36 4 -39 39 1
138 12 27 -40 37 36 16 8 35 28 285 -59 138 38 48 -40 40 32 137 46 26 -40 34 39 139 45 1 -40 47 32 136 43 42 -40 27 11
138 23 58 -41 26 6 16 8 51 28 285 -59 138 50 54 -41 29 1 137 57 21 -41 23 8 139 58 42 -41 35 59 136 53 14 -41 15 41
138 37 40 -42 14 55 16 9 6 27 285 -58 139 5 17 -42 17 49 138 10 25 -42 11 58 140 14 46 -42 24 45 137 4 47 -42 4 31
138 53 46 -43 4 3 16 9 22 27 286 -57 139 22 6 -43 6 57 138 25 48 -43 1 7 140 33 27 -43 13 50 137 18 32 -42 53 42
139 12 27 -43 53 33 16 9 38 26 286 -56 139 41 34 -43 56 25 138 43 44 -43 50 37 140 54 59 -44 3 15 137 34 39 -43 43 14
139 33 59 -44 43 23 16 9 54 26 286 -55 140 3 58 -44 46 13 139 4 24 -44 40 29 141 19 38 -44 52 58 137 53 22 -44 33 8
139 58 36 -45 33 34 16 10 9 25 286 -54 140 29 33 -45 36 23 139 28 6 -45 30 42 141 47 43 -45 43 2 138 14 54 -45 23 25
140 26 40 -46 24 8 16 10 25 25 286 -54 140 58 40 -46 26 54 139 55 8 -46 21 18 142 19 35 -46 33 25 138 39 33 -46 14 5
140 58 31 -47 15 2 16 10 41 24 286 -53 141 31 42 -47 17 45 140 25 51 -47 12 15 142 55 42 -47 24 7 139 7 37 -47 5 8
141 34 36 -48 6 18 16 10 57 23 285 -52 142 9 6 -48 8 57 141 0 41 -48 3 35 143 36 34 -48 15 8 139 39 31 -47 56 35
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jul 4.0
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