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Updated: 2013 JUL 04, 00:23 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Aug 07 UT, the 105 km diameter asteroid (387) Aquitania will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia through Northern Territory, and over Alice Springs. Then into South Australia over Ceduna.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.2 mag to 10.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
139 30 21 - 3 36 14 15 47 10 41 251 -71 140 11 7 - 3 36 14 138 50 7 - 3 36 2 140 43 17 - 3 36 4 138 19 5 - 3 35 44
139 2 1 - 4 46 1 15 47 24 42 252 -72 139 42 31 - 4 46 8 138 22 2 - 4 45 41 140 14 28 - 4 46 5 137 51 10 - 4 45 17
138 35 17 - 5 55 13 15 47 38 42 253 -73 139 15 34 - 5 55 28 137 55 29 - 5 54 46 139 47 21 - 5 55 30 137 24 46 - 5 54 18
138 10 4 - 7 3 54 15 47 51 43 253 -74 138 50 10 - 7 4 15 137 30 25 - 7 3 21 139 21 48 - 7 4 23 136 59 49 - 7 2 47
137 46 16 - 8 12 6 15 48 5 44 254 -75 138 26 15 - 8 12 33 137 6 45 - 8 11 27 138 57 46 - 8 12 46 136 36 14 - 8 10 50
137 23 51 - 9 19 52 15 48 19 44 255 -75 138 3 44 - 9 20 25 136 44 24 - 9 19 9 138 35 11 - 9 20 42 136 13 56 - 9 18 27
137 2 44 -10 27 16 15 48 32 45 256 -76 137 42 34 -10 27 53 136 23 20 -10 26 27 138 13 58 -10 28 14 135 52 54 -10 25 42
136 42 53 -11 34 18 15 48 46 45 258 -77 137 22 42 -11 35 0 136 3 30 -11 33 25 137 54 4 -11 35 24 135 33 4 -11 32 37
136 24 15 -12 41 2 15 49 0 46 259 -78 137 4 4 -12 41 47 135 44 51 -12 40 5 137 35 27 -12 42 15 135 14 24 -12 39 13
136 6 48 -13 47 29 15 49 14 46 260 -78 136 46 40 -13 48 18 135 27 21 -13 46 29 137 18 5 -13 48 49 134 56 53 -13 45 34
135 50 31 -14 53 41 15 49 27 47 261 -79 136 30 28 -14 54 34 135 11 0 -14 52 38 137 1 55 -14 55 8 134 40 27 -14 51 41
135 35 22 -15 59 41 15 49 41 47 262 -79 136 15 25 -16 0 37 134 55 45 -15 58 35 136 46 58 -16 1 13 134 25 7 -15 57 36
135 21 21 -17 5 31 15 49 55 47 263 -79 136 1 32 -17 6 29 134 41 35 -17 4 21 136 33 11 -17 7 7 134 10 51 -17 3 20
135 8 26 -18 11 11 15 50 8 47 265 -79 135 48 47 -18 12 11 134 28 31 -18 9 59 136 20 33 -18 12 51 133 57 39 -18 8 56
134 56 38 -19 16 43 15 50 22 48 266 -79 135 37 10 -19 17 46 134 16 31 -19 15 30 136 9 6 -19 18 28 133 45 30 -19 14 25
134 45 56 -20 22 10 15 50 36 48 267 -79 135 26 42 -20 23 15 134 5 35 -20 20 54 135 58 47 -20 23 58 133 34 24 -20 19 48
134 36 21 -21 27 32 15 50 49 48 268 -78 135 17 22 -21 28 39 133 55 45 -21 26 15 135 49 39 -21 29 23 133 24 21 -21 25 8
134 27 52 -22 32 52 15 51 3 48 269 -78 135 9 10 -22 34 0 133 46 59 -22 31 34 135 41 41 -22 34 45 133 15 23 -22 30 26
134 20 32 -23 38 11 15 51 17 48 271 -77 135 2 9 -23 39 19 133 39 20 -23 36 52 135 34 55 -23 40 5 133 7 29 -23 35 43
134 14 21 -24 43 30 15 51 31 48 272 -77 134 56 19 -24 44 39 133 32 48 -24 42 10 135 29 22 -24 45 25 133 0 41 -24 41 0
134 9 21 -25 48 51 15 51 44 48 273 -76 134 51 42 -25 50 0 133 27 25 -25 47 30 135 25 3 -25 50 47 132 55 1 -25 46 20
134 5 33 -26 54 15 15 51 58 48 274 -75 134 48 19 -26 55 24 133 23 13 -26 52 54 135 22 0 -26 56 11 132 50 29 -26 51 43
134 3 0 -27 59 43 15 52 12 48 276 -75 134 46 14 -28 0 53 133 20 13 -27 58 22 135 20 16 -28 1 39 132 47 9 -27 57 12
134 1 45 -29 5 18 15 52 25 48 277 -74 134 45 29 -29 6 27 133 18 29 -29 3 57 135 19 55 -29 7 12 132 45 2 -29 2 47
134 1 51 -30 11 0 15 52 39 48 278 -73 134 46 7 -30 12 8 133 18 3 -30 9 40 135 20 58 -30 12 53 132 44 11 -30 8 30
134 3 21 -31 16 51 15 52 53 47 279 -72 134 48 12 -31 17 58 133 18 58 -31 15 32 135 23 31 -31 18 41 132 44 40 -31 14 23
134 6 20 -32 22 52 15 53 7 47 280 -71 134 51 48 -32 23 57 133 21 20 -32 21 35 135 27 37 -32 24 39 132 46 34 -32 20 26
134 10 52 -33 29 5 15 53 20 47 281 -70 134 57 1 -33 30 8 133 25 12 -33 27 49 135 33 22 -33 30 48 132 49 55 -33 26 42
134 17 3 -34 35 30 15 53 34 46 282 -69 135 3 56 -34 36 31 133 30 40 -34 34 17 135 40 52 -34 37 9 132 54 49 -34 33 12
134 24 59 -35 42 10 15 53 48 46 283 -68 135 12 40 -35 43 8 133 37 49 -35 41 0 135 50 13 -35 43 44 133 1 23 -35 39 56
134 34 47 -36 49 6 15 54 1 46 284 -67 135 23 19 -36 50 0 133 46 47 -36 47 59 136 1 34 -36 50 33 133 9 42 -36 46 57
134 46 35 -37 56 19 15 54 15 45 285 -66 135 36 3 -37 57 9 133 57 41 -37 55 15 136 15 1 -37 57 38 133 19 54 -37 54 16
135 0 33 -39 3 50 15 54 29 45 286 -65 135 51 0 -39 4 35 134 10 40 -39 2 51 136 30 47 -39 5 1 133 32 8 -39 1 55
135 16 50 -40 11 41 15 54 42 44 287 -64 136 8 23 -40 12 21 134 25 54 -40 10 47 136 49 1 -40 12 41 133 46 34 -40 9 55
135 35 40 -41 19 53 15 54 56 43 287 -63 136 28 23 -41 20 26 134 43 35 -41 19 4 137 9 57 -41 20 41 134 3 22 -41 18 16
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jul 4.0
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