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Updated: 2013 Jun 12, 21:08 UT
Event Rank : 24
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Jul 27 UT, the 35 km diameter asteroid (170) Maria will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across New Zealand, running from Westport to Christchurch shortly after evening twilight ends.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.7 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 19239753 by 170 Maria on 2013 Jul 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
174 0 32 -44 13 45 6 27 56 44 92 -13 173 42 48 -44 16 44 174 18 10 -44 10 44 172 3 2 -44 32 17 175 53 46 -43 53 13
173 13 23 -43 12 15 6 28 8 44 94 -12 172 55 49 -43 15 7 173 30 51 -43 9 21 171 17 2 -43 30 1 175 5 32 -42 52 27
172 25 42 -42 10 22 6 28 20 43 95 -11 172 8 18 -42 13 7 172 43 1 -42 7 35 170 30 22 -42 27 21 174 16 53 -41 51 20
171 37 26 -41 8 3 6 28 33 42 96 -10 171 20 9 -41 10 40 171 54 37 -41 5 23 169 42 59 -41 24 14 173 27 45 -40 49 47
170 48 27 -40 5 15 6 28 45 42 98 -9 170 31 18 -40 7 45 171 5 32 -40 2 42 168 54 47 -40 20 36 172 38 3 -39 47 47
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jun 13.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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