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Updated: 2013 Apr 17, 13:19 UT
Event Rank : 59
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Jun 08 UT, the 51 km diameter asteroid (347) Pariana will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across central Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.1 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6912-00689-1 by 347 Pariana on 2013 Jun 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 53 47 -15 14 34 21 16 20 52 248 -5 132 10 44 -15 16 11 131 36 53 -15 12 54 132 46 34 -15 19 27 131 1 35 -15 9 15
131 22 44 -16 31 31 21 16 40 53 249 -6 131 39 44 -16 33 12 131 5 47 -16 29 48 132 15 39 -16 36 35 130 30 24 -16 26 2
130 52 44 -17 47 55 21 17 1 53 251 -6 131 9 48 -17 49 39 130 35 44 -17 46 8 131 45 50 -17 53 9 130 0 14 -17 42 16
130 23 45 -19 3 48 21 17 22 54 252 -7 130 40 53 -19 5 35 130 6 41 -19 1 58 131 17 5 -19 9 11 129 31 2 -18 58 0
129 55 43 -20 19 14 21 17 42 55 254 -8 130 12 57 -20 21 4 129 38 34 -20 17 22 130 49 18 -20 24 47 129 2 44 -20 13 17
129 28 36 -21 34 17 21 18 3 56 256 -9 129 45 55 -21 36 10 129 11 21 -21 32 21 130 22 30 -21 39 58 128 35 18 -21 28 11
129 2 21 -22 48 59 21 18 23 56 258 -10 129 19 47 -22 50 54 128 44 59 -22 47 1 129 56 36 -22 54 49 128 8 43 -22 42 44
128 36 57 -24 3 23 21 18 44 57 260 -10 128 54 30 -24 5 21 128 19 27 -24 1 22 129 31 35 -24 9 21 127 42 55 -23 57 0
128 12 21 -25 17 31 21 19 5 57 261 -11 128 30 3 -25 19 32 127 54 43 -25 15 28 129 7 26 -25 23 37 127 17 53 -25 11 1
127 48 33 -26 31 27 21 19 25 58 263 -12 128 6 25 -26 33 31 127 30 46 -26 29 22 128 44 7 -26 37 41 126 53 37 -26 24 50
127 25 32 -27 45 13 21 19 46 58 265 -12 127 43 33 -27 47 19 127 7 34 -27 43 5 128 21 37 -27 51 34 126 30 4 -27 38 28
127 3 16 -28 58 52 21 20 6 58 268 -13 127 21 29 -29 1 0 126 45 8 -28 56 42 127 59 56 -29 5 20 126 7 14 -28 52 0
126 41 46 -30 12 25 21 20 27 59 270 -14 127 0 10 -30 14 35 126 23 25 -30 10 13 127 39 3 -30 19 0 125 45 6 -30 5 26
126 21 0 -31 25 56 21 20 48 59 272 -14 126 39 38 -31 28 8 126 2 26 -31 23 41 127 18 59 -31 32 37 125 23 40 -31 18 49
126 0 59 -32 39 25 21 21 8 59 274 -15 126 19 51 -32 41 40 125 42 11 -32 37 8 126 59 42 -32 46 13 125 2 56 -32 32 12
125 41 43 -33 52 57 21 21 29 59 276 -15 126 0 50 -33 55 14 125 22 40 -33 50 38 126 41 14 -33 59 51 124 42 53 -33 45 37
125 23 13 -35 6 33 21 21 49 59 278 -16 125 42 37 -35 8 51 125 3 53 -35 4 12 126 23 35 -35 13 33 124 23 32 -34 59 7
125 5 29 -36 20 15 21 22 10 59 281 -16 125 25 10 -36 22 36 124 45 52 -36 17 52 126 6 47 -36 27 22 124 4 54 -36 12 42
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2013 Apr 17.0
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