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Updated: 2013 Apr 17, 03:25 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Jun 05 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (715) Transvaalia will occult a 8.5 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across central West Australia, passing near Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 14.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7454-00911-1 by 715 Transvaalia on 2013 Jun 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
122 50 57 -10 31 30 21 24 6 50 223 -9 123 1 2 -10 29 8 122 40 53 -10 33 52 123 39 40 -10 19 49 122 2 35 -10 42 39
122 44 57 -11 57 15 21 24 24 51 224 -10 122 55 3 -11 54 54 122 34 53 -11 59 34 123 33 44 -11 45 44 121 56 30 -12 8 13
122 40 9 -13 21 46 21 24 43 52 225 -10 122 50 16 -13 19 27 122 30 3 -13 24 3 123 29 2 -13 10 25 121 51 35 -13 32 35
122 36 29 -14 45 10 21 25 1 53 227 -11 122 46 38 -14 42 53 122 26 21 -14 47 26 123 25 31 -14 33 58 121 47 46 -14 55 52
122 33 58 -16 7 33 21 25 20 54 228 -11 122 44 9 -16 5 18 122 23 47 -16 9 47 123 23 10 -15 56 27 121 45 2 -16 18 8
122 32 33 -17 28 59 21 25 39 55 230 -12 122 42 47 -17 26 45 122 22 20 -17 31 12 123 22 0 -17 17 59 121 43 24 -17 39 29
122 32 16 -18 49 33 21 25 57 56 231 -12 122 42 33 -18 47 19 122 21 59 -18 51 45 123 21 58 -18 38 36 121 42 50 -18 59 59
122 33 6 -20 9 18 21 26 16 57 233 -12 122 43 27 -20 7 5 122 22 45 -20 11 30 123 23 5 -19 58 25 121 43 22 -20 19 41
122 35 3 -21 28 18 21 26 35 57 234 -13 122 45 28 -21 26 6 122 24 38 -21 30 30 123 25 22 -21 17 27 121 44 58 -21 38 40
122 38 8 -22 46 37 21 26 53 58 236 -13 122 48 38 -22 44 25 122 27 39 -22 48 48 123 28 50 -22 35 47 121 47 41 -22 56 58
122 42 23 -24 4 18 21 27 12 58 238 -13 122 52 58 -24 2 5 122 31 48 -24 6 29 123 33 29 -23 53 27 121 51 31 -24 14 39
122 47 49 -25 21 23 21 27 30 59 240 -14 122 58 29 -25 19 10 122 37 9 -25 23 35 123 39 22 -25 10 31 121 56 30 -25 31 45
122 54 28 -26 37 56 21 27 49 59 242 -14 123 5 14 -26 35 42 122 43 42 -26 40 7 123 46 30 -26 27 2 122 2 39 -26 48 20
123 2 22 -27 53 58 21 28 8 60 244 -14 123 13 15 -27 51 44 122 51 30 -27 56 10 123 54 55 -27 43 0 122 10 2 -28 4 25
123 11 35 -29 9 32 21 28 26 60 246 -14 123 22 35 -29 7 17 123 0 36 -29 11 45 124 4 42 -28 58 30 122 18 41 -29 20 3
123 22 10 -30 24 40 21 28 45 60 248 -15 123 33 17 -30 22 24 123 11 3 -30 26 54 124 15 52 -30 13 33 122 28 39 -30 35 16
123 34 10 -31 39 23 21 29 3 61 250 -15 123 45 25 -31 37 6 123 22 55 -31 41 39 124 28 30 -31 28 10 122 40 0 -31 50 6
123 47 39 -32 53 45 21 29 22 61 252 -15 123 59 3 -32 51 26 123 36 15 -32 56 2 124 42 40 -32 42 24 122 52 48 -33 4 35
124 2 43 -34 7 46 21 29 41 61 254 -15 124 14 16 -34 5 25 123 51 10 -34 10 5 124 58 28 -33 56 16 123 7 8 -34 18 44
124 19 26 -35 21 28 21 29 59 61 256 -15 124 31 9 -35 19 5 124 7 44 -35 23 49 125 15 57 -35 9 48 123 23 4 -35 32 35
124 37 55 -36 34 51 21 30 18 61 258 -15 124 49 48 -36 32 26 124 26 3 -36 37 15 125 35 16 -36 23 1 123 40 44 -36 46 10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jan 6.0
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