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Updated: 2013 MAR 17, 21:34 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 May 09 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (635) Vundtia will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a south-to-north path across eastern Australia passing near Mt Gambier, Warrnambool and Cairns.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.8 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
144 34 26 - 9 0 0 17 27 46 76 90 -43 145 2 13 144 6 36 145 55 58 143 12 26
144 34 57 -10 0 0 17 27 24 76 86 -44 145 2 49 144 7 1 145 56 44 143 12 41
144 35 10 -11 0 0 17 27 3 76 82 -44 145 3 8 144 7 8 145 57 15 143 12 36
144 35 5 -12 0 0 17 26 41 76 78 -44 145 3 10 144 6 57 145 57 29 143 12 12
144 34 41 -13 0 0 17 26 20 75 75 -44 145 2 53 144 6 26 145 57 26 143 11 27
144 33 58 -14 0 0 17 25 58 75 71 -45 145 2 18 144 5 35 145 57 6 143 10 21
144 32 56 -15 0 0 17 25 36 74 68 -45 145 1 24 144 4 24 145 56 28 143 8 53
144 31 33 -16 0 0 17 25 15 74 65 -45 145 0 10 144 2 52 145 55 32 143 7 3
144 29 49 -17 0 0 17 24 54 73 62 -46 144 58 36 144 0 58 145 54 16 143 4 50
144 27 43 -18 0 0 17 24 32 73 59 -46 144 56 41 143 58 42 145 52 41 143 2 13
144 25 15 -19 0 0 17 24 11 72 57 -46 144 54 23 143 56 3 145 50 45 142 59 12
144 22 23 -20 0 0 17 23 50 72 55 -46 144 51 44 143 52 59 145 48 28 142 55 45
144 19 8 -21 0 0 17 23 28 71 53 -46 144 48 41 143 49 31 145 45 49 142 51 52
144 15 27 -22 0 0 17 23 7 70 51 -47 144 45 13 143 45 37 145 42 47 142 47 31
144 11 20 -23 0 0 17 22 46 69 49 -47 144 41 20 143 41 15 145 39 21 142 42 42
144 6 46 -24 0 0 17 22 25 69 47 -47 144 37 1 143 36 26 145 35 31 142 37 23
144 1 44 -25 0 0 17 22 4 68 46 -47 144 32 15 143 31 8 145 31 15 142 31 33
143 56 12 -26 0 0 17 21 44 67 44 -47 144 27 0 143 25 19 145 26 33 142 25 11
143 50 10 -27 0 0 17 21 23 66 43 -47 144 21 16 143 18 59 145 21 22 142 18 16
143 43 35 -28 0 0 17 21 2 65 42 -48 144 15 0 143 12 6 145 15 42 142 10 45
143 36 28 -29 0 0 17 20 42 64 41 -48 144 8 12 143 4 38 145 9 32 142 2 38
143 28 45 -30 0 0 17 20 22 64 40 -48 144 0 50 142 56 34 145 2 50 141 53 53
143 20 25 -31 0 0 17 20 2 63 39 -48 143 52 52 142 47 52 144 55 35 141 44 27
143 11 27 -32 0 0 17 19 42 62 39 -48 143 44 18 142 38 31 144 47 44 141 34 20
143 1 49 -33 0 0 17 19 22 61 38 -48 143 35 4 142 28 28 144 39 17 141 23 28
142 51 28 -34 0 0 17 19 2 60 37 -48 143 25 8 142 17 41 144 30 12 141 11 50
142 40 22 -35 0 0 17 18 42 59 37 -48 143 14 30 142 6 8 144 20 25 140 59 22
142 28 29 -36 0 0 17 18 23 58 36 -48 143 3 6 141 53 46 144 9 56 140 46 3
142 15 47 -37 0 0 17 18 4 57 36 -48 142 50 54 141 40 33 143 58 42 140 31 49
142 2 12 -38 0 0 17 17 45 56 35 -48 142 37 51 141 26 25 143 46 40 140 16 38
141 47 41 -39 0 0 17 17 26 55 35 -48 142 23 54 141 11 21 143 33 48 140 0 26
141 32 12 -40 0 0 17 17 7 54 35 -48 142 9 1 140 55 15 143 20 3 139 43 8
141 15 40 -41 0 0 17 16 48 53 34 -48 141 53 6 140 38 4 143 5 21 139 24 42
140 58 1 -42 0 0 17 16 30 52 34 -47 141 36 8 140 19 45 142 49 39 139 5 3
140 39 12 -43 0 0 17 16 12 51 34 -47 141 18 1 140 0 13 142 32 53 138 44 5
Uncertainty in time = +/- 19 secs
Prediction of 2013 Mar 17.0
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