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Updated: 2013 Apr 17, 16:03 UT
Event Rank : 52
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Apr 22 UT, the 28 km diameter asteroid (470) Kilia will occult a 8.5 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across eastern Victoria, western New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia, southern Northern Territory and northern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.4 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5596-00836-1 by 470 Kilia on 2013 Apr 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
152 24 50 -41 27 27 12 25 49 39 63 -56 152 10 58 -41 33 21 152 38 36 -41 21 32 151 36 23 -41 47 51 153 12 4 -41 6 59
151 40 2 -40 41 33 12 26 3 39 65 -56 151 26 14 -40 47 23 151 53 44 -40 35 43 150 51 51 -41 1 42 152 27 1 -40 21 21
150 54 53 -39 55 53 12 26 17 39 66 -56 150 41 9 -40 1 39 151 8 31 -39 50 7 150 6 55 -40 15 47 151 41 38 -39 35 55
150 9 19 -39 10 25 12 26 31 39 67 -56 149 55 38 -39 16 7 150 22 53 -39 4 44 149 21 33 -39 30 5 150 55 53 -38 50 42
149 23 18 -38 25 9 12 26 45 38 68 -57 149 9 40 -38 30 46 149 36 50 -38 19 31 148 35 42 -38 44 34 150 9 43 -38 5 39
148 36 48 -37 40 3 12 26 59 38 69 -57 148 23 13 -37 45 36 148 50 18 -37 34 29 147 49 21 -37 59 13 149 23 6 -37 20 47
147 49 47 -36 55 5 12 27 13 38 70 -57 147 36 13 -37 0 34 148 3 16 -36 49 36 147 2 25 -37 14 2 148 36 0 -36 36 3
147 2 13 -36 10 16 12 27 27 38 72 -57 146 48 39 -36 15 41 147 15 40 -36 4 50 146 14 54 -36 28 59 147 48 22 -35 51 27
146 14 1 -35 25 34 12 27 41 37 73 -57 146 0 28 -35 30 55 146 27 28 -35 20 12 145 26 43 -35 44 3 147 0 9 -35 6 58
145 25 9 -34 40 57 12 27 55 37 74 -57 145 11 36 -34 46 15 145 38 36 -34 35 39 144 37 50 -34 59 14 146 11 18 -34 22 35
144 35 34 -33 56 25 12 28 9 36 75 -57 144 22 0 -34 1 39 144 49 3 -33 51 11 143 48 12 -34 14 28 145 21 47 -33 38 16
143 45 13 -33 11 57 12 28 23 36 76 -56 143 31 37 -33 17 7 143 58 43 -33 6 47 142 57 45 -33 29 47 144 31 31 -32 54 1
142 54 1 -32 27 32 12 28 37 36 77 -56 142 40 23 -32 32 38 143 7 33 -32 22 25 142 6 24 -32 45 8 143 40 27 -32 9 48
142 1 55 -31 43 8 12 28 51 35 78 -56 141 48 13 -31 48 10 142 15 30 -31 38 5 141 14 6 -32 0 30 142 48 31 -31 25 37
141 8 49 -30 58 44 12 29 5 34 79 -56 140 55 3 -31 3 42 141 22 28 -30 53 45 140 20 45 -31 15 53 141 55 39 -30 41 26
140 14 38 -30 14 18 12 29 19 34 80 -55 140 0 48 -30 19 13 140 28 23 -30 9 23 139 26 17 -30 31 14 141 1 45 -29 57 15
139 19 18 -29 29 50 12 29 33 33 81 -55 139 5 21 -29 34 41 139 33 8 -29 24 59 138 30 34 -29 46 32 140 6 45 -29 13 0
138 22 41 -28 45 19 12 29 47 33 82 -55 138 8 37 -28 50 5 138 36 39 -28 40 31 137 33 32 -29 1 45 139 10 32 -28 28 42
137 24 41 -28 0 41 12 30 1 32 83 -54 137 10 28 -28 5 23 137 38 47 -27 55 58 136 35 0 -28 16 53 138 12 59 -27 44 19
136 25 8 -27 15 56 12 30 15 31 84 -53 136 10 46 -27 20 33 136 39 24 -27 11 17 135 34 52 -27 31 52 137 14 0 -26 59 48
135 23 55 -26 31 1 12 30 29 30 85 -53 135 9 20 -26 35 34 135 38 22 -26 26 27 134 32 57 -26 46 42 136 13 24 -26 15 9
134 20 49 -25 45 55 12 30 43 30 86 -52 134 6 1 -25 50 23 134 35 29 -25 41 26 133 29 2 -26 1 18 135 11 3 -25 30 19
133 15 39 -25 0 35 12 30 57 29 87 -51 133 0 35 -25 4 58 133 30 34 -24 56 11 132 22 55 -25 15 40 134 6 44 -24 45 16
132 8 9 -24 14 58 12 31 11 28 88 -51 131 52 46 -24 19 15 132 23 22 -24 10 39 131 14 18 -24 29 44 133 0 14 -23 59 57
130 58 1 -23 29 1 12 31 25 27 88 -50 130 42 17 -23 33 12 131 13 36 -23 24 47 130 2 53 -23 43 25 131 51 17 -23 14 19
129 44 54 -22 42 39 12 31 39 26 89 -49 129 28 44 -22 46 44 130 0 53 -22 38 32 128 48 13 -22 56 41 130 39 32 -22 28 19
128 28 21 -21 55 49 12 31 53 25 90 -48 128 11 40 -21 59 47 128 44 50 -21 51 49 127 29 49 -22 9 24 129 24 37 -21 41 53
127 7 47 -21 8 23 12 32 7 23 91 -47 126 50 30 -21 12 13 127 24 51 -21 4 32 126 7 2 -21 21 30 128 6 1 -20 54 54
125 42 29 -20 20 15 12 32 21 22 92 -45 125 24 27 -20 23 56 126 0 17 -20 16 33 124 38 59 -20 32 48 126 43 6 -20 7 17
124 11 28 -19 31 15 12 32 35 21 93 -44 123 52 29 -19 34 44 124 30 10 -19 27 44 123 4 32 -19 43 7 125 15 2 -19 18 53
122 33 23 -18 41 9 12 32 49 19 93 -43 122 13 12 -18 44 24 122 53 14 -18 37 51 121 21 59 -18 52 10 123 40 43 -18 29 30
120 46 15 -17 49 37 12 33 3 18 94 -41 120 24 27 -17 52 35 121 7 38 -17 46 36 119 28 49 -17 59 32 121 58 32 -17 38 53
118 46 58 -16 56 9 12 33 17 16 95 -39 118 22 53 -16 58 42 119 10 29 -16 53 31 117 20 51 -17 4 33 120 6 6 -16 46 39
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2013 Apr 17.0
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