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Updated: 2013 JAN 26, 16:42 UT
Event Rank : 66
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Feb 10 UT, the 35 km diameter asteroid (183) Istria will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a south-to-north path from Western Australia to Northern Territory,from Eucla to Kakadu.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.4 mag to 13.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 22 53 -39 11 29 13 57 45 37 306 -32 128 5 10 -39 6 27 128 40 43 -39 16 31 127 33 37 -38 57 24 129 13 9 -39 25 35
128 19 37 -38 3 27 13 57 52 38 305 -33 128 2 20 -37 58 29 128 37 2 -38 8 24 127 31 30 -37 49 34 129 8 42 -38 17 20
128 18 9 -36 56 22 13 57 58 39 304 -34 128 1 14 -36 51 29 128 35 11 -37 1 16 127 31 4 -36 42 41 129 6 8 -37 10 5
128 18 19 -35 50 12 13 58 4 39 303 -34 128 1 45 -35 45 22 128 35 0 -35 55 2 127 32 12 -35 36 41 129 5 19 -36 3 43
128 20 1 -34 44 52 13 58 10 40 303 -35 128 3 45 -34 40 6 128 36 22 -34 49 38 127 34 45 -34 31 31 129 6 5 -34 58 13
128 23 6 -33 40 19 13 58 16 40 302 -36 128 7 8 -33 35 36 128 39 10 -33 45 2 127 38 39 -33 27 8 129 8 21 -33 53 31
128 27 31 -32 36 30 13 58 22 41 301 -37 128 11 49 -32 31 51 128 43 19 -32 41 9 127 43 47 -32 23 28 129 12 0 -32 49 33
128 33 10 -31 33 22 13 58 28 41 300 -38 128 17 42 -31 28 46 128 48 43 -31 37 59 127 50 6 -31 20 29 129 16 56 -31 46 17
128 39 58 -30 30 54 13 58 34 42 299 -39 128 24 44 -30 26 20 128 55 18 -30 35 27 127 57 32 -30 18 8 129 23 7 -30 43 40
128 47 54 -29 29 1 13 58 41 42 298 -40 128 32 52 -29 24 30 129 3 1 -29 33 32 128 6 1 -29 16 23 129 30 26 -29 41 40
128 56 52 -28 27 43 13 58 47 42 297 -41 128 42 2 -28 23 15 129 11 48 -28 32 12 128 15 31 -28 15 12 129 38 53 -28 40 15
129 6 52 -27 26 57 13 58 53 43 296 -42 128 52 12 -27 22 31 129 21 37 -27 31 23 128 25 59 -27 14 32 129 48 23 -27 39 22
129 17 51 -26 26 41 13 58 59 43 295 -43 129 3 20 -26 22 17 129 32 26 -26 31 5 128 37 24 -26 14 23 129 58 54 -26 39 0
129 29 47 -25 26 54 13 59 5 43 294 -44 129 15 25 -25 22 32 129 44 13 -25 31 15 128 49 44 -25 14 41 130 10 25 -25 39 6
129 42 38 -24 27 32 13 59 11 43 293 -45 129 28 24 -24 23 13 129 56 57 -24 31 52 129 2 58 -24 15 25 130 22 54 -24 39 40
129 56 24 -23 28 36 13 59 17 44 292 -46 129 42 17 -23 24 18 130 10 36 -23 32 54 129 17 4 -23 16 34 130 36 19 -23 40 38
130 11 4 -22 30 3 13 59 24 44 291 -47 129 57 4 -22 25 47 130 25 9 -22 34 20 129 32 2 -22 18 7 130 50 40 -22 42 0
130 26 37 -21 31 53 13 59 30 44 290 -48 130 12 43 -21 27 38 130 40 36 -21 36 7 129 47 51 -21 20 0 131 5 56 -21 43 45
130 43 3 -20 34 2 13 59 36 44 289 -49 130 29 14 -20 29 49 130 56 56 -20 38 15 130 4 32 -20 22 14 131 22 7 -20 45 50
131 0 21 -19 36 31 13 59 42 44 288 -50 130 46 37 -19 32 20 131 14 10 -19 40 42 130 22 3 -19 24 47 131 39 11 -19 48 14
131 18 32 -18 39 17 13 59 48 44 287 -51 131 4 52 -18 35 8 131 32 16 -18 43 27 130 40 25 -18 27 38 131 57 10 -18 50 57
131 37 36 -17 42 20 13 59 54 44 286 -52 131 23 59 -17 38 12 131 51 16 -17 46 29 130 59 39 -17 30 45 132 16 4 -17 53 56
131 57 33 -16 45 39 14 0 0 44 285 -52 131 43 59 -16 41 32 132 11 10 -16 49 46 131 19 44 -16 34 7 132 35 52 -16 57 11
132 18 24 -15 49 12 14 0 7 44 284 -53 132 4 52 -15 45 6 132 31 59 -15 53 18 131 40 42 -15 37 43 132 56 36 -16 0 41
132 40 10 -14 52 58 14 0 13 43 283 -54 132 26 40 -14 48 53 132 53 43 -14 57 3 132 2 34 -14 41 32 133 18 17 -15 4 23
133 2 51 -13 56 56 14 0 19 43 281 -55 132 49 24 -13 52 52 133 16 23 -14 1 0 132 25 20 -13 45 33 133 40 55 -14 8 19
133 26 31 -13 1 5 14 0 25 43 280 -56 133 13 4 -12 57 2 133 40 1 -13 5 8 132 49 1 -12 49 45 134 4 31 -13 12 25
133 51 9 -12 5 24 14 0 31 43 279 -57 133 37 42 -12 1 22 134 4 39 -12 9 26 133 13 40 -11 54 7 134 29 8 -12 16 42
134 16 47 -11 9 53 14 0 37 42 278 -58 134 3 20 -11 5 51 134 30 18 -11 13 54 133 39 18 -10 58 37 134 54 48 -11 21 7
134 43 28 -10 14 29 14 0 43 42 277 -59 134 30 1 -10 10 29 134 57 0 -10 18 29 134 5 58 -10 3 16 135 21 31 -10 25 41
135 11 14 - 9 19 12 14 0 50 42 277 -60 134 57 46 - 9 15 13 135 24 47 - 9 23 12 134 33 40 - 9 8 1 135 49 21 - 9 30 22
135 40 8 - 8 24 2 14 0 56 41 276 -61 135 26 37 - 8 20 3 135 53 43 - 8 28 0 135 2 28 - 8 12 53 136 18 20 - 8 35 10
136 10 12 - 7 28 56 14 1 2 41 275 -63 135 56 38 - 7 24 58 136 23 49 - 7 32 54 135 32 25 - 7 17 49 136 48 31 - 7 40 3
136 41 29 - 6 33 55 14 1 8 40 274 -64 136 27 53 - 6 29 58 136 55 10 - 6 37 53 136 3 34 - 6 22 50 137 19 58 - 6 45 0
137 14 4 - 5 38 58 14 1 14 40 273 -65 137 0 23 - 5 35 1 137 27 48 - 5 42 55 136 35 58 - 5 27 54 137 52 44 - 5 50 1
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jan 27.0
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