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Updated: 2012 Sep 26, 22:30 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Oct 21 UT, the 130 km diameter asteroid (751) Faina will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a path across eastern Australia, passing near Sydney, over Coffs Harbour and Brisbane.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 12.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7505-00877-1 by 751 Faina on 2012 Oct 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
150 43 56 -44 46 22 9 18 6 67 63 -9 149 52 57 -44 39 46 151 34 53 -44 52 40 149 20 19 -44 35 22 152 7 29 -44 56 33
151 7 59 -43 23 17 9 18 27 68 66 -10 150 18 10 -43 16 53 151 57 47 -43 29 24 149 46 16 -43 12 38 152 29 38 -43 33 9
151 29 43 -42 0 26 9 18 47 69 68 -11 150 40 59 -41 54 13 152 18 26 -42 6 22 150 9 46 -41 50 5 152 49 36 -42 10 0
151 49 21 -40 37 46 9 19 7 70 71 -11 151 1 36 -40 31 43 152 37 4 -40 43 32 150 31 1 -40 27 41 153 7 35 -40 47 5
152 7 4 -39 15 14 9 19 28 70 74 -12 151 20 15 -39 9 20 152 53 50 -39 20 52 150 50 15 -39 5 25 153 23 45 -39 24 19
152 23 1 -37 52 50 9 19 48 71 78 -13 151 37 4 -37 47 4 153 8 55 -37 58 19 151 7 38 -37 43 14 153 38 16 -38 1 42
152 37 22 -36 30 30 9 20 8 72 82 -14 151 52 14 -36 24 52 153 22 27 -36 35 52 151 23 19 -36 21 7 153 51 17 -36 39 11
152 50 14 -35 8 12 9 20 29 72 85 -15 152 5 51 -35 2 41 153 34 33 -35 13 28 151 37 25 -34 59 0 154 2 53 -35 16 42
153 1 43 -33 45 54 9 20 49 72 90 -16 152 18 3 -33 40 29 153 45 20 -33 51 5 151 50 4 -33 36 52 154 13 13 -33 54 15
153 11 56 -32 23 34 9 21 10 72 94 -16 152 28 55 -32 18 14 153 54 53 -32 28 39 152 1 21 -32 14 41 154 22 21 -32 31 47
153 20 58 -31 1 9 9 21 30 72 98 -17 152 38 34 -30 55 53 154 3 18 -31 6 9 152 11 24 -30 52 23 154 30 21 -31 9 14
153 28 53 -29 38 36 9 21 50 72 102 -18 152 47 3 -29 33 25 154 10 38 -29 43 33 152 20 15 -29 29 58 154 37 19 -29 46 35
153 35 45 -28 15 53 9 22 11 72 107 -18 152 54 27 -28 10 46 154 16 58 -28 20 46 152 28 0 -28 7 21 154 43 18 -28 23 47
153 41 37 -26 52 58 9 22 31 72 111 -19 153 0 50 -26 47 53 154 22 20 -26 57 48 152 34 41 -26 44 31 154 48 22 -27 0 46
153 46 34 -25 29 47 9 22 51 72 115 -20 153 6 14 -25 24 45 154 26 49 -25 34 35 152 40 23 -25 21 24 154 52 32 -25 37 31
153 50 37 -24 6 18 9 23 12 71 119 -21 153 10 43 -24 1 18 154 30 26 -24 11 4 152 45 9 -23 57 59 154 55 53 -24 13 59
153 53 48 -22 42 28 9 23 32 71 122 -21 153 14 19 -22 37 30 154 33 13 -22 47 12 152 48 59 -22 34 11 154 58 25 -22 50 6
153 56 11 -21 18 13 9 23 52 70 126 -22 153 17 3 -21 13 16 154 35 14 -21 22 56 152 51 58 -21 9 59 155 0 11 -21 25 50
153 57 45 -19 53 31 9 24 13 69 129 -22 153 18 58 -19 48 35 154 36 28 -19 58 13 152 54 5 -19 45 18 155 1 12 -20 1 7
153 58 34 -18 28 18 9 24 33 68 132 -23 153 20 4 -18 23 22 154 36 57 -18 33 0 152 55 24 -18 20 6 155 1 29 -18 35 53
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2012 Sep 27.0
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