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Updated: 2012 JUL 07, 23:15 UT
Event Rank : 46
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Aug 14 UT, the 37 km diameter asteroid (497) Iva will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a path beginning near Bega and Orbost. The path moves north-west near Adelaide and Whyalla, then into north Western Australia near Broome and Derby.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
154 11 21 -37 13 52 16 13 38 12 242 -50 153 26 53 -37 37 0 154 58 8 -36 49 15 151 29 28 -38 36 45 157 29 48 -35 27 23
152 35 52 -37 12 12 16 14 9 13 242 -51 151 54 10 -37 33 29 153 19 23 -36 49 44 150 2 52 -38 29 4 155 37 11 -35 36 54
151 6 46 -37 6 55 16 14 39 14 243 -52 150 27 15 -37 26 43 151 47 45 -36 46 9 148 40 58 -38 18 54 153 55 28 -35 39 55
149 43 0 -36 58 41 16 15 10 15 244 -53 149 5 18 -37 17 16 150 21 57 -36 39 17 147 23 12 -38 6 35 152 21 58 -35 38 9
148 23 52 -36 47 59 16 15 40 16 244 -54 147 47 40 -37 5 32 149 1 8 -36 29 42 146 9 10 -37 52 23 150 54 59 -35 32 40
147 8 48 -36 35 9 16 16 11 17 245 -55 146 33 54 -36 51 50 147 44 40 -36 17 50 144 58 30 -37 36 33 149 33 27 -35 24 11
145 57 24 -36 20 29 16 16 41 17 245 -56 145 23 36 -36 36 25 146 32 2 -36 4 0 143 50 57 -37 19 15 148 16 34 -35 13 12
144 49 18 -36 4 12 16 17 11 18 246 -57 144 16 28 -36 19 28 145 22 52 -35 48 26 142 46 15 -37 0 38 147 3 46 -35 0 4
143 44 13 -35 46 29 16 17 42 18 246 -57 143 12 16 -36 1 9 144 16 51 -35 31 21 141 44 12 -36 40 50 145 54 36 -34 45 6
142 41 55 -35 27 28 16 18 12 19 246 -58 142 10 45 -35 41 37 143 13 44 -35 12 54 140 44 39 -36 19 57 144 48 43 -34 28 31
141 42 13 -35 7 17 16 18 43 19 247 -59 141 11 44 -35 20 58 142 13 17 -34 53 13 139 47 25 -35 58 6 143 45 49 -34 10 29
140 44 56 -34 46 3 16 19 13 20 247 -60 140 15 5 -34 59 18 141 15 20 -34 32 26 138 52 23 -35 35 20 142 45 40 -33 51 10
139 49 55 -34 23 50 16 19 44 20 247 -61 139 20 39 -34 36 42 140 19 42 -34 10 37 137 59 26 -35 11 44 141 48 4 -33 30 41
138 57 2 -34 0 44 16 20 14 21 247 -61 138 28 17 -34 13 14 139 26 16 -33 47 53 137 8 27 -34 47 21 140 52 50 -33 9 8
138 6 10 -33 36 48 16 20 45 21 248 -62 137 37 54 -33 48 59 138 34 53 -33 24 17 136 19 20 -34 22 15 139 59 50 -32 46 37
137 17 13 -33 12 5 16 21 15 22 248 -63 136 49 23 -33 23 59 137 45 28 -32 59 54 135 31 59 -33 56 29 139 8 56 -32 23 12
136 30 4 -32 46 40 16 21 45 22 248 -63 136 2 40 -32 58 18 136 57 54 -32 34 46 134 46 21 -33 30 5 138 20 0 -31 58 58
135 44 40 -32 20 35 16 22 16 22 248 -64 135 17 38 -32 31 58 136 12 5 -32 8 56 134 2 20 -33 3 6 137 32 57 -31 33 57
135 0 55 -31 53 52 16 22 46 23 248 -65 134 34 14 -32 5 1 135 27 58 -31 42 27 133 19 52 -32 35 33 136 47 41 -31 8 13
134 18 44 -31 26 33 16 23 17 23 248 -65 133 52 24 -31 37 29 134 45 27 -31 15 21 132 38 54 -32 7 28 136 4 6 -30 41 48
133 38 5 -30 58 40 16 23 47 23 248 -66 133 12 3 -31 9 25 134 4 29 -30 47 41 131 59 22 -31 38 53 135 22 9 -30 14 46
132 58 54 -30 30 16 16 24 18 23 248 -67 132 33 8 -30 40 50 133 25 0 -30 19 27 131 21 14 -31 9 49 134 41 46 -29 47 7
132 21 7 -30 1 20 16 24 48 24 248 -67 131 55 37 -30 11 44 132 46 56 -29 50 42 130 44 25 -30 40 17 134 2 52 -29 18 53
131 44 41 -29 31 56 16 25 18 24 248 -68 131 19 26 -29 42 11 132 10 15 -29 21 27 130 8 53 -30 10 19 133 25 24 -28 50 7
131 9 33 -29 2 3 16 25 49 24 248 -69 130 44 32 -29 12 10 131 34 54 -28 51 43 129 34 37 -29 39 56 132 49 20 -28 20 50
130 35 42 -28 31 43 16 26 19 24 248 -69 130 10 53 -28 41 42 131 0 49 -28 21 31 129 1 33 -29 9 8 132 14 36 -27 51 2
130 3 4 -28 0 58 16 26 50 24 248 -70 129 38 27 -28 10 50 130 28 0 -27 50 53 128 29 39 -28 37 56 131 41 9 -27 20 46
129 31 38 -27 29 46 16 27 20 24 248 -70 129 7 12 -27 39 32 129 56 22 -27 19 48 127 58 53 -28 6 22 131 8 59 -26 50 1
129 1 21 -26 58 10 16 27 51 25 248 -71 128 37 5 -27 7 50 129 25 55 -26 48 18 127 29 13 -27 34 24 130 38 1 -26 18 49
128 32 12 -26 26 11 16 28 21 25 247 -72 128 8 5 -26 35 45 128 56 37 -26 16 24 127 0 38 -27 2 5 130 8 15 -25 47 11
128 4 8 -25 53 47 16 28 52 25 247 -72 127 40 10 -26 3 17 128 28 25 -25 44 5 126 33 6 -26 29 25 129 39 38 -25 15 7
127 37 10 -25 21 1 16 29 22 25 247 -73 127 13 19 -25 30 27 128 1 19 -25 11 22 126 6 36 -25 56 23 129 12 9 -24 42 37
127 11 14 -24 47 51 16 29 52 25 247 -73 126 47 30 -24 57 14 127 35 16 -24 38 17 125 41 6 -25 23 0 128 45 47 -24 9 42
126 46 20 -24 14 19 16 30 23 25 247 -74 126 22 42 -24 23 39 127 10 16 -24 4 48 125 16 35 -24 49 16 128 20 29 -23 36 23
126 22 27 -23 40 25 16 30 53 25 247 -74 125 58 54 -23 49 42 126 46 18 -23 30 56 124 53 2 -24 15 12 127 56 16 -23 2 39
125 59 34 -23 6 9 16 31 24 25 246 -75 125 36 5 -23 15 23 126 23 21 -22 56 42 124 30 27 -23 40 48 127 33 6 -22 28 30
125 37 40 -22 31 30 16 31 54 25 246 -75 125 14 15 -22 40 43 126 1 23 -22 22 5 124 8 47 -23 6 3 127 10 58 -21 53 57
125 16 44 -21 56 29 16 32 25 25 246 -76 124 53 22 -22 5 41 125 40 24 -21 47 5 123 48 2 -22 30 58 126 49 51 -21 19 0
124 56 45 -21 21 5 16 32 55 25 246 -76 124 33 25 -21 30 17 125 20 23 -21 11 42 123 28 13 -21 55 32 126 29 46 -20 43 39
124 37 44 -20 45 19 16 33 25 25 246 -77 124 14 25 -20 54 31 125 1 21 -20 35 56 123 9 18 -21 19 45 126 10 41 -20 7 52
124 19 39 -20 9 11 16 33 56 25 245 -77 123 56 21 -20 18 22 124 43 16 -19 59 47 122 51 16 -20 43 38 125 52 37 -19 31 41
124 2 32 -19 32 39 16 34 26 24 245 -78 123 39 13 -19 41 51 124 26 9 -19 23 14 122 34 9 -20 7 9 125 35 32 -18 55 4
123 46 20 -18 55 43 16 34 57 24 245 -78 123 23 1 -19 4 57 124 9 59 -18 46 16 122 17 54 -19 30 18 125 19 28 -18 18 1
123 31 6 -18 18 24 16 35 27 24 245 -78 123 7 44 -18 27 40 123 54 46 -18 8 55 122 2 33 -18 53 6 125 4 25 -17 40 32
123 16 48 -17 40 39 16 35 58 24 245 -79 122 53 23 -17 49 58 123 40 32 -17 31 8 121 48 6 -18 15 31 124 50 22 -17 2 35
123 3 28 -17 2 30 16 36 28 24 244 -79 122 39 59 -17 11 52 123 27 16 -16 52 55 121 34 32 -17 37 33 124 37 22 -16 24 11
122 51 5 -16 23 54 16 36 59 24 244 -79 122 27 31 -16 33 20 123 14 59 -16 14 15 121 21 53 -16 59 10 124 25 23 -15 45 17
122 39 41 -15 44 51 16 37 29 23 244 -79 122 16 1 -15 54 22 123 3 42 -15 35 7 121 10 8 -16 20 24 124 14 29 -15 5 54
122 29 17 -15 5 21 16 37 59 23 244 -79 122 5 30 -15 14 57 122 53 25 -14 55 31 120 59 19 -15 41 12 124 4 39 -14 25 59
122 19 53 -14 25 21 16 38 30 23 243 -79 121 55 58 -14 35 3 122 44 11 -14 15 25 120 49 25 -15 1 33 123 55 56 -13 45 32
122 11 32 -13 44 51 16 39 0 23 243 -79 121 47 27 -13 54 39 122 36 1 -13 34 47 120 40 29 -14 21 28 123 48 22 -13 4 30
122 4 15 -13 3 48 16 39 31 22 243 -79 121 39 58 -13 13 45 122 28 56 -12 53 36 120 32 32 -13 40 53 123 41 59 -12 22 52
121 58 4 -12 22 12 16 40 1 22 243 -79 121 33 34 -12 32 18 122 22 59 -12 11 51 120 25 35 -12 59 48 123 36 49 -11 40 35
121 53 1 -11 40 1 16 40 32 22 242 -79 121 28 16 -11 50 16 122 18 13 -11 29 29 120 19 40 -12 18 12 123 32 57 -10 57 38
121 49 10 -10 57 12 16 41 2 21 242 -79 121 24 8 -11 7 39 122 14 40 -10 46 28 120 14 50 -11 36 2 123 30 27 -10 13 58
Uncertainty in time = +/- 23 secs
Prediction of 2012 Jul 8.0
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