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Updated: 2011 OCT 17, 16:05 UT
Event Rank : 50
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Nov 07 UT, the 89 km diameter asteroid (697) Galilea will occult a 12.7 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a south- to-north path across Australia beginning near Mount Gambier; with Adelaide just inside the 1-sigma uncertainty area. The path tracks north passing near Broken Hill, and into Queensland near Mount Isa.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.9 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 16 13 -46 0 0 17 1 25 1 14 -19 138 57 7 137 35 3 ... .. .. 135 47 29
138 35 48 -45 0 0 17 1 25 2 14 -20 139 15 52 137 55 29 ... .. .. 136 10 10
138 53 46 -44 0 0 17 1 26 3 13 -20 139 33 3 138 14 15 ... .. .. 136 31 2
139 10 14 -43 0 0 17 1 27 4 13 -21 139 48 47 138 31 27 ... .. .. 136 50 13
139 25 17 -42 0 0 17 1 28 5 13 -22 140 3 9 138 47 12 141 39 50 137 7 50
139 39 0 -41 0 0 17 1 29 6 13 -22 140 16 12 139 1 34 141 51 16 137 23 56
139 51 26 -40 0 0 17 1 31 7 13 -23 140 28 3 139 14 38 142 1 34 137 38 38
140 2 41 -39 0 0 17 1 33 8 13 -24 140 38 43 139 26 27 142 10 48 137 52 1
140 12 48 -38 0 0 17 1 36 9 13 -24 140 48 17 139 37 7 142 19 0 138 4 7
140 21 49 -37 0 0 17 1 38 10 12 -25 140 56 48 139 46 40 142 26 13 138 15 2
140 29 49 -36 0 0 17 1 41 11 12 -26 141 4 19 139 55 9 142 32 31 138 24 48
140 36 50 -35 0 0 17 1 44 12 12 -26 141 10 52 140 2 37 142 37 55 138 33 29
140 42 53 -34 0 0 17 1 48 13 12 -27 141 16 30 140 9 6 142 42 28 138 41 8
140 48 3 -33 0 0 17 1 51 14 12 -28 141 21 15 140 14 40 142 46 12 138 47 47
140 52 20 -32 0 0 17 1 55 15 12 -28 141 25 9 140 19 21 142 49 8 138 53 28
140 55 46 -31 0 0 17 1 59 16 12 -29 141 28 14 140 23 9 142 51 18 138 58 14
140 58 24 -30 0 0 17 2 4 17 12 -29 141 30 31 140 26 8 142 52 44 139 2 7
141 0 15 -29 0 0 17 2 8 18 12 -30 141 32 3 140 28 18 142 53 26 139 5 8
141 1 20 -28 0 0 17 2 13 19 12 -31 141 32 50 140 29 41 142 53 28 139 7 20
141 1 41 -27 0 0 17 2 19 20 12 -31 141 32 54 140 30 19 142 52 48 139 8 43
141 1 19 -26 0 0 17 2 24 21 12 -32 141 32 16 140 30 13 142 51 29 139 9 19
141 0 14 -25 0 0 17 2 30 22 13 -33 141 30 56 140 29 24 142 49 32 139 9 10
140 58 29 -24 0 0 17 2 36 23 13 -33 141 28 57 140 27 53 142 46 57 139 8 16
140 56 4 -23 0 0 17 2 42 24 13 -34 141 26 19 140 25 41 142 43 45 139 6 39
140 52 59 -22 0 0 17 2 48 25 13 -35 141 23 2 140 22 49 142 39 57 139 4 19
140 49 16 -21 0 0 17 2 55 26 13 -35 141 19 7 140 19 17 142 35 33 139 1 17
140 44 55 -20 0 0 17 3 2 27 13 -36 141 14 35 140 15 6 142 30 35 138 57 35
140 39 56 -19 0 0 17 3 9 28 13 -37 141 9 27 140 10 18 142 25 1 138 53 12
140 34 21 -18 0 0 17 3 17 29 13 -37 141 3 43 140 4 51 142 18 54 138 48 9
140 28 9 -17 0 0 17 3 24 30 14 -38 140 57 23 139 58 48 142 12 13 138 42 27
140 21 21 -16 0 0 17 3 32 31 14 -39 140 50 27 139 52 7 142 4 58 138 36 6
140 13 57 -15 0 0 17 3 40 32 14 -39 140 42 56 139 44 50 141 57 11 138 29 6
140 5 58 -14 0 0 17 3 49 32 14 -40 140 34 51 139 36 57 141 48 50 138 21 28
139 57 23 -13 0 0 17 3 57 33 15 -41 140 26 11 139 28 27 141 39 56 138 13 13
139 48 13 -12 0 0 17 4 6 34 15 -41 140 16 56 139 19 22 141 30 29 138 4 19
139 38 27 -11 0 0 17 4 15 35 15 -42 140 7 7 139 9 40 141 20 30 137 54 47
139 28 6 -10 0 0 17 4 24 36 15 -43 139 56 43 138 59 22 141 9 58 137 44 38
139 17 10 - 9 0 0 17 4 34 37 16 -43 139 45 44 138 48 29 140 58 52 137 33 51
139 5 39 - 8 0 0 17 4 43 38 16 -44 139 34 11 138 36 59 140 47 14 137 22 26
138 53 31 - 7 0 0 17 4 53 39 16 -45 139 22 2 138 24 53 140 35 2 137 10 22
138 40 48 - 6 0 0 17 5 3 40 17 -45 139 9 18 138 12 10 140 22 17 136 57 40
138 27 28 - 5 0 0 17 5 13 41 17 -46 138 55 59 137 58 50 140 8 58 136 44 20
138 13 32 - 4 0 0 17 5 24 42 18 -47 138 42 4 137 44 53 139 55 4 136 30 20
137 58 59 - 3 0 0 17 5 35 43 18 -47 138 27 32 137 30 18 139 40 36 136 15 40
137 43 48 - 2 0 0 17 5 45 43 19 -48 138 12 23 137 15 5 139 25 33 136 0 21
137 27 59 - 1 0 0 17 5 57 44 19 -49 137 56 37 136 59 13 139 9 54 135 44 21
137 11 32 0 0 0 17 6 8 45 20 -49 137 40 13 136 42 42 138 53 39 135 27 39
136 54 24 1 0 0 17 6 19 46 20 -50 137 23 11 136 25 30 138 36 48 135 10 15
136 36 37 2 0 0 17 6 31 47 21 -51 137 5 28 136 7 37 138 19 18 134 52 8
136 18 9 3 0 0 17 6 43 48 21 -51 136 47 6 135 49 3 138 1 10 134 33 18
135 58 58 4 0 0 17 6 55 48 22 -52 136 28 2 135 29 46 137 42 23 134 13 42
135 39 5 5 0 0 17 7 7 49 23 -52 136 8 16 135 9 45 137 22 55 133 53 21
135 18 27 6 0 0 17 7 20 50 24 -53 135 47 47 134 48 59 137 2 47 133 32 12
134 57 4 7 0 0 17 7 32 51 24 -54 135 26 33 134 27 26 136 41 55 133 10 14
134 34 55 8 0 0 17 7 45 52 25 -54 135 4 33 134 5 6 136 20 21 132 47 27
Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs
Prediction of 2011 Oct 17.0
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