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Updated: 2011 JUL 21, 22:44 UT
Event Rank : 75
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Aug 27 UT, the 158 km diameter asteroid (185) Eunike will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Scutum for observers along a path beginning in eastern Northern Territory, then into NSW passing near Broken Hill, and Victoria near Melbourne. Canberra is just inside the 1-sigma uncertainty area.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 12.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 19 7 - 0 26 23 14 46 32 40 264 -80 138 26 10 - 0 27 3 136 13 36 - 0 25 33 140 9 56 - 0 27 44 134 37 58 - 0 24 1
137 7 34 - 1 24 40 14 46 41 40 265 -81 138 14 25 - 1 25 22 136 2 14 - 1 23 49 139 57 52 - 1 26 4 134 26 49 - 1 22 15
136 57 12 - 2 22 51 14 46 51 40 266 -82 138 3 55 - 2 23 33 135 51 59 - 2 21 58 139 47 7 - 2 24 18 134 16 44 - 2 20 23
136 48 1 - 3 20 56 14 47 0 40 267 -83 137 54 38 - 3 21 40 135 42 53 - 3 20 3 139 37 40 - 3 22 26 134 7 43 - 3 18 26
136 39 59 - 4 18 57 14 47 9 40 267 -84 137 46 33 - 4 19 42 135 34 53 - 4 18 3 139 29 30 - 4 20 29 133 59 45 - 4 16 25
136 33 5 - 5 16 55 14 47 18 40 268 -85 137 39 40 - 5 17 40 135 27 58 - 5 16 1 139 22 36 - 5 18 29 133 52 50 - 5 14 22
136 27 20 - 6 14 51 14 47 27 41 269 -86 137 33 58 - 6 15 37 135 22 10 - 6 13 56 139 16 58 - 6 16 26 133 46 56 - 6 12 17
136 22 42 - 7 12 46 14 47 36 41 270 -86 137 29 26 - 7 13 32 135 17 27 - 7 11 51 139 12 34 - 7 14 22 133 42 5 - 7 10 11
136 19 13 - 8 10 41 14 47 46 41 271 -87 137 26 5 - 8 11 27 135 13 49 - 8 9 45 139 9 26 - 8 12 17 133 38 15 - 8 8 5
136 16 52 - 9 8 36 14 47 55 41 272 -88 137 23 55 - 9 9 22 135 11 17 - 9 7 41 139 7 34 - 9 10 12 133 35 27 - 9 6 0
136 15 40 -10 6 34 14 48 4 41 272 -88 137 22 58 -10 7 19 135 9 52 -10 5 38 139 6 59 -10 8 9 133 33 42 -10 3 58
136 15 38 -11 4 34 14 48 13 40 273 -88 137 23 13 -11 5 19 135 9 34 -11 3 38 139 7 41 -11 6 8 133 33 1 -11 1 58
136 16 47 -12 2 37 14 48 22 40 274 -87 137 24 42 -12 3 22 135 10 24 -12 1 42 139 9 42 -12 4 10 133 33 24 -12 0 3
136 19 9 -13 0 46 14 48 31 40 275 -86 137 27 26 -13 1 30 135 12 24 -12 59 51 139 13 3 -13 2 17 133 34 53 -12 58 13
136 22 45 -13 59 0 14 48 41 40 276 -86 137 31 28 -13 59 44 135 15 35 -13 58 6 139 17 47 -14 0 29 133 37 29 -13 56 29
136 27 37 -14 57 21 14 48 50 40 276 -85 137 36 50 -14 58 3 135 19 59 -14 56 28 139 23 56 -14 58 46 133 41 14 -14 54 51
136 33 48 -15 55 49 14 48 59 40 277 -84 137 43 34 -15 56 30 135 25 39 -15 54 57 139 31 33 -15 57 11 133 46 10 -15 53 22
136 41 20 -16 54 26 14 49 8 39 278 -83 137 51 43 -16 55 6 135 32 36 -16 53 36 139 40 41 -16 55 44 133 52 19 -16 52 2
136 50 17 -17 53 13 14 49 17 39 279 -82 138 1 20 -17 53 51 135 40 55 -17 52 24 139 51 24 -17 54 26 133 59 44 -17 50 52
137 0 42 -18 52 10 14 49 26 39 279 -81 138 12 30 -18 52 46 135 50 38 -18 51 23 140 3 47 -18 53 18 134 8 28 -18 49 53
137 12 40 -19 51 18 14 49 36 38 280 -80 138 25 16 -19 51 52 136 1 50 -19 50 33 140 17 54 -19 52 20 134 18 35 -19 49 6
137 26 14 -20 50 40 14 49 45 38 281 -79 138 39 45 -20 51 11 136 14 34 -20 49 57 140 33 50 -20 51 35 134 30 9 -20 48 32
137 41 31 -21 50 15 14 49 54 37 281 -78 138 56 1 -21 50 44 136 28 55 -21 49 34 140 51 43 -21 51 2 134 43 13 -21 48 13
137 58 37 -22 50 5 14 50 3 37 282 -77 139 14 11 -22 50 30 136 45 0 -22 49 27 141 11 40 -22 50 43 134 57 54 -22 48 9
138 17 37 -23 50 10 14 50 12 36 282 -76 139 34 22 -23 50 32 137 2 54 -23 49 36 141 33 48 -23 50 38 135 14 17 -23 48 22
138 38 41 -24 50 33 14 50 21 36 283 -75 139 56 44 -24 50 50 137 22 45 -24 50 2 141 58 19 -24 50 49 135 32 28 -24 48 53
139 1 56 -25 51 13 14 50 31 35 283 -74 140 21 25 -25 51 26 137 44 41 -25 50 46 142 25 22 -25 51 17 135 52 34 -25 49 42
139 27 33 -26 52 12 14 50 40 34 284 -73 140 48 36 -26 52 20 138 8 51 -26 51 50 142 55 10 -26 52 2 136 14 44 -26 50 52
139 55 43 -27 53 32 14 50 49 34 284 -72 141 18 30 -27 53 34 138 35 26 -27 53 15 143 27 58 -27 53 5 136 39 8 -27 52 23
140 26 40 -28 55 12 14 50 58 33 284 -71 141 51 22 -28 55 7 139 4 38 -28 55 1 144 4 3 -28 54 27 137 5 56 -28 54 17
141 0 39 -29 57 15 14 51 7 32 285 -70 142 27 28 -29 57 3 139 36 40 -29 57 10 144 43 44 -29 56 8 137 35 20 -29 56 35
141 37 58 -30 59 41 14 51 16 31 285 -69 143 7 8 -30 59 20 140 11 49 -30 59 43 145 27 26 -30 58 10 138 7 35 -30 59 18
142 18 57 -32 2 30 14 51 26 31 285 -68 143 50 45 -32 1 59 140 50 25 -32 2 42 146 15 35 -32 0 31 138 42 57 -32 2 27
143 4 1 -33 5 45 14 51 35 30 285 -66 144 38 47 -33 5 2 141 32 48 -33 6 6 147 8 47 -33 3 14 139 21 44 -33 6 4
143 53 39 -34 9 25 14 51 44 29 285 -65 145 31 47 -34 8 29 142 19 24 -34 9 57 148 7 41 -34 6 16 140 4 20 -34 10 9
144 48 26 -35 13 30 14 51 53 28 285 -64 146 30 25 -35 12 19 143 10 45 -35 14 16 149 13 8 -35 9 37 140 51 10 -35 14 45
145 49 4 -36 18 1 14 52 2 27 285 -63 147 35 30 -36 16 32 144 7 29 -36 19 3 150 26 13 -36 13 15 141 42 46 -36 19 51
146 56 26 -37 22 58 14 52 12 25 284 -61 148 48 4 -37 21 6 145 10 19 -37 24 18 151 48 18 -37 17 7 142 39 46 -37 25 29
148 11 39 -38 28 18 14 52 21 24 284 -60 150 9 26 -38 25 59 146 20 14 -38 30 1 153 21 13 -38 21 8 143 42 55 -38 31 38
149 36 6 -39 33 59 14 52 30 23 283 -59 151 41 20 -39 31 7 147 38 23 -39 36 9 155 7 31 -39 25 9 144 53 10 -39 38 20
151 11 39 -40 39 57 14 52 39 21 283 -57 153 26 7 -40 36 24 149 6 18 -40 42 41 157 10 54 -40 28 58 146 11 42 -40 45 31
153 0 52 -41 46 5 14 52 48 20 282 -55 155 27 10 -41 41 36 150 46 2 -41 49 32 159 37 12 -41 32 9 147 40 3 -41 53 12
155 7 25 -42 52 10 14 52 57 18 281 -54 157 49 36 -42 46 25 152 40 21 -42 56 33 162 36 47 -42 33 57 149 20 13 -43 1 16
157 36 56 -43 57 49 14 53 7 16 279 -52 160 42 3 -43 50 13 154 53 18 -44 3 31 166 32 16 -43 32 33 151 14 59 -44 9 39
160 39 0 -45 2 23 14 53 16 14 277 -50 164 21 34 -44 51 42 157 31 11 -45 10 2 172 46 55 -44 21 10 153 28 15 -45 18 5
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jul 22.0
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